Overview of risks in advanced and emerging countries

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

14 January 2010 Economic Overview – global recovery continues but lacks conviction.

Advertisements

LATIN AMERICA Inflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten? Carnegie International Economics Program February 16,

Banking Crises Fin254f: Spring 2010 Lecture notes 2.2a Readings: Reinhart and Rogoff(10)

London’s Economic Outlook: March 2013 Gordon Douglass GLA Economics.

The future of the economy Prof Dominic Swords. From recession to recovery? Short term cyclical growth Long term structural change Risks and opportunities.

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

1 UNCTAD Virtual Institute Training Course on Commodities Geneva, 15 February 2010 Rouben Indjikian, Chief, CPIOS Special Unit on Commodities, UNCTAD Fundamentals,

Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 20 April 2005.

SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Small economies and financial crisis Horwath Nordic Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor Bank.

1 The Global Financial Crisis: What’s Next? Bank Guarantee Fund Conference Warsaw, May 21, 2010 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central.

Half-yearly Indonesia Economic Update and Outlook William E. Wallace Lead Economist, World Bank Indonesia 10 December 2008.

Economic Update and Outlook

Chapter 14 Business Cycles and Economic Growth. AGENDA Fri 3/23 & Mon 4/2 QOD # 23: Economic Growth Review HW Business Cycles Economic Indicators HW:

Volatilities in the Financial Markets and Global Imbalances July 7th, 2014 Institute for International Monetary Affairs 1.

Toward A Bottom-Up Approach in Assessing Sovereign Default Risk

INBU 4200: International Financial Management Professor Michael Palmer Leeds School of Business Fall Semester, 2010.

Financial stability report 2007:1 24 May CHAPTER 1 Financial markets.

Financial Stability Report 2007:2 4 December 2007.

Part A: Global environment. Chart A.1 Greek government bond spreads have risen sharply Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations. (a)

Future Financial Forecast An update on the big economic picture for credit, interest rates and inflation. Paul Cahill Chief Executive Officer.

Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013.

PRESENTED BY GEORGE TSETSEKOS Dean Emeritus and Francis Professor of Finance March 26, 2014 DREXEL UNIVERSIY LeBow College of Business The Global Economy.

Investment strategy for a volatile market … Kevin Scully, 16 July

8 March 2012 The Economy and Women Sharon White – Director General, Public Spending International Women’s Day.

The East Asian Crisis: Causes and Effects Joseph E. Stiglitz Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank.

Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist (Indonesia) Indonesia Banking Conference December 11, 2014 Recent developments and economic outlook for 2015 World Bank IEQ.

Financial Crises Analysis. Overview Asian Financial Crisis July Mainly South East Asian Countries Started in Thailand 2008 Financial Crisis.

Figure 12.1 American house prices; 12-month moving average, 1987 – 2012 Source: calculations based on data from US Census Bureau; median new house price.

Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy The BCA Dialogue Webcast February 19, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation.

Rebuilding confidence Han de Jong Group Economics March 2012.

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

A Tale of Two Crises: Korea’s Experience with External Debt Management Paper Prepared by Professor Yung Chul Park Seoul National University UNCTAD Expert.

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL European Market Outlook April 2012.

E R S T E G R O U P AAFBR Conference Bucharest, November 2010 Outlook on the CEE Region Financial Markets & Debt Fritz Mostböck, CEFA Head of Group Research.

LOGO Vietnam Inflation and Investment Strategies Investment Department Jul 2011.

1 Turkish Economy : An Overview N. Kamuran MALATYALI.

1 Different crisis solutions and common future challenges for the Baltic Economies Jekaterina Rojaka DNB Chief Economist | Baltics November 24, 2011 Economic.

Dougie Adams Oxford Economics.

ASSET BUBBLES AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008? A. G. MALLIARIS Presented to the Xavier EMBA, November 26, 2008 What are Asset Bubbles? Variety of Bubbles.

1 1Q | 2015 As of December 31, 2014 Guide to the Markets ®

Market Update Waseda Financial Investment Team 13 th June 2012.

Jump-starting the Global Economy Bold Policy Recommendations for the G7 Countries Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist Global Insight October 28, 2002.

Brian Kantor for Nexia; Cape Town May 28 th The SA economy and its financial markets Making sense of a complicated environment.

Economic and Social Update November 2007 William E. Wallace, Lead Economist World Bank, Indonesia November 2007.

November, CONTENTS  Macroeconomic projections for the period Key exogenous assumptions for the projections Baseline macroeconomic scenario.

Grzegorz Sielewicz Economist, Coface Country Risk Outlook 28 th May 2015.

Hell in a hand-cart | Heaven on earth. STERLING WORRIES Trade | FDI | Balance of Trade.

The Global Financial Crisis: Impacts on Growth and Development African Countries Presentation to INWENT By Mr. Kasekende Chief Economist, African Development.

The Economic Outlook Sam Kahan, Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Detroit Branch Wisconsin Bankers Association Madison,

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009.

1 Henrique de Campos Meirelles Davos, January 2004 Gearing Brazil for Growth.

Part A: Global environment. Chart A.25 UK and euro-area banks’ equity prices have come under particular pressure Sources: SNL Financial, Thomson Reuters.

Post recession Euro Area: what are the challenges? Lucrezia Reichlin London Business School and Now-casting economics Vienna 26 November 2013.

Overview. Table A Key risks to the UK financial system.

Part A: Global Environment

Go West California February

2017 Outlook For the Financial Markets

Small economies and financial crisis Horwath Nordic

Part A: Global environment

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Soundness

Grzegorz Sielewicz CEE Chief Economist Coface Country Risk Conference

A macroeconomic overview

Sarah Brooks,€ Raphael Cunha¥ & Layna Mosley £

Brexit and the UK Economy

The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions

“A Year of Shocks” Rachel Agnor, Riley Nees, Asher Mazaika, Charlie Lapolla, Steven Gundersen, Mike Novak Section A Laurel 1.

Global Capital Flows and Regulation of SIFIs

Dubravko Mihaljek Bank for International Settlements

Presentation transcript:

Overview of risks in advanced and emerging countries Grzegorz Sielewicz CEE Chief Economist Coface Country Risk Conference Prague, 24th May 2017

Recovery in global growth Coface world GDP growth forecast Business confidence (2010-2016 average = 100)

Are financial markets becoming tired of politIcal risk? Political uncertainty & stock market volatility Stock market volatility after a major political shock (VIX, 1-month average) Greece: First bailout plan (Q2 2010) Greece: 4th & 5th austerity packages (Q3 2011) Greece: A. Tsipras sworn as PM (Jan. 2015) UK referendum (June 2016) US election (Nov. 2016) Italy’s referendum (Dec. 2016) Global political uncertainly index (EPU) VIX index (RHS) Source: Coface Sources: Reuters, Coface

US: will Trump manage to delay the end of the cycle? US: Corporate profits, building permits and vehicle sales Sources: Coface, BEA

UK: rising inflation impacts sectors in different ways UK: Impact of a 15% depreciation of the GBP (% points, REER) UK: Coface Sector Risk Assessments Low risk Medium risk High risk Very high risk Low risk Medium risk High risk Very high risk Source: Coface Source: Coface

Businesses: fewer insolvencies, but still little business creation Business insolvencies: 2017 growth forecast (%) Business creations (% change between 2015 and the pre-crisis peak) 36,5% Germany US Italy France (2016) UK Sources: Coface forecast, national sources Sources: National sources

Emerging markets: slight economic upturn in 2017 Emerging markets: 2017 Growth forecasts by sector 2017 Growth forecast 2017-2016 Growth change in pp Sources: Coface, Oxford Economics

Corporate debt and banking risk go hand in hand Corporate debt to GDP ratio (Change between Q2 2015 et Q2 2016 in pp) Banking credit condition survey (below 50 = tightening) Sources: Coface, BIS Sources: IIF, Coface

China: from one bubble to another 1. Stock market (CSI 300 index) 2. Capital outflows (USD bn / month) 3. Bond market (5-year sovereign bond yield, %) 4. Real estate market (average national price, RMB/sqm) 5,500 5.0 5,000 4.5 4,500 4.0 4,000 3,500 3.5 3,000 3.0 2,500 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2014 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, Coface

Country Risk Assessments

Country Risk Assessments: Advanced economies

Country Risk Assessments: Emerging economies (1)

Country Risk Assessments: Emerging economies (2)