UPSKILLING THROUGH CRIME As marginalized groups seek economic security in a world struggling with high unemployment in the formal sector alongside growth in the criminal economy, the path to financial security will shift. Where today’s workforce frequently make moral choices between corporate and nonprofit jobs, tomorrow’s workforce will increasingly make moral choices between legitimate and illegitimate work. Young workers in particular will join criminal groups to earn money while gaining skills and experience before seeking amnesty, rehabilitation, and legitimate work that uses those skills. The pervasive infiltration of the criminal economy into the corporate economy will make switching back and forth between legitimate and illegitimate work easier, both logistically and culturally. The result is that, in 2025, organized criminal networks become the new paid internship.

WHAT‘S DRIVING THIS FORECAST Declining opportunities in the legitimate job economy, with high youth unemployment and extremely low wages Development of a professionalized parallel criminal economy in every field from banking and law to logistics and real estate Pressure on young people to get lots of hands-on experience through internships, many of which are unpaid Efforts worldwide to normalize and reintegrate young recruits from criminal organizations Shifting definitions of morals and behaviors associated with crime—especially so-called victimless crimes

RE-INTEGRATION Governments work to rehabilitate and reintegrate youth who have been inducted early in their lives into criminal organizations SIGNAL: Rather than arresting young Danish ISIS fighters returning home, Aarhus, Denmark offers rehabilitation services that include access to work, education, and physiological support SO WHAT: In the battle against organized crime, governments shift their emphasis from prison and punishment to transitioning youth into the legitimate economy Image source: http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/28/world/europe/denmark-syria-deradicalization-program/  

MICRO-CRIMES Organized crime increasingly uses legitimate microwork platforms to recruit individuals to do small, seemingly innocuous tasks that add up to big crimes SIGNAL: Entrust Group, Inc., recruits unknowing online workers to act as so-called money mules, receiving money transfers and immediately forwarding them abroad SO WHAT: Workers build microwork reputations and rating scores—and sometimes skills— in criminal activities that qualify them for legitimate microwork   Image source: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2009/09/money_mules_carry_loot_for_org.html

CRIMINAL INTERNSHIPS Unemployed or informally employed youth are recruited into a wide range of organized crimes that have analogs in the legitimate sector SIGNAL: In Gang Leader for a Day, sociologist Sudhir Venkatesh describes the entrepreneurial and leadership skills required to participate in the gang economy of a Chicago neighborhood SO WHAT: As legitimate employment remains out of reach for more than 75 million youth worldwide (World Economic Forum), crime becomes a viable, if precarious pathway to build future skills  Image source: http://www.sudhirvenkatesh.org/books/gang-leader-for-a-day

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS A growing portion of youth and young adults see gray and black market jobs as a way to both earn money and gain skills that are not available to them in the legitimate economy The so-called moral criminal emerges as an entrepreneurial type that can easily cross the boundaries between the legitimate and criminal economies Programs designed to reroute youth engaged in crime from the criminal justice system to entrepreneurial jobs grow Incentives to hire those with criminal records become the focus of growing policy debates

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO In 2025, the percentage of people who have participated knowingly or unknowingly in the criminal economy continues to grow. Those who have worked in organizations that clearly skirt the law have three career paths: First, they can continue in the criminal economy. Second, they can progress to other jobs in apparently legitimate companies that are set up specifically to support the criminal economy—for example, in accounting services for organized crime. Finally, they can use the skills they learned in, say, illegally manufacturing military equipment for sale to legitimate government agencies to secure a job in the legitimate sector for the same industry. Increasingly, all three options will require online skills and experience that can be gained in either the legitimate or criminal economy.