Keeping CO2 Safely Stored Sarah Gasda, Uni Research CIPR CLIMIT Summit 7-8 March 2017

Outline Risk Management: inputs, methods and challenges Contributions: PROTECT project Case studies: Utsira/Skade, Smeaheia Outlook Motivation: IEA Road Map for CCS 12.2 Gt stored by 2050 EU Commission, 2014

Managing the risk profile Evaluate seal Estimate capacity Estimate future plume/pressure Quantify uncertainty Monitor plume/pressure Verify/benchmark simulations Pre-injection Injection Post-injection Risk Graphic: S. Benson, Stanford University

Challenges of CCS scale-up Safe storage capabilities demonstrated Pressure impacts are local Focus on CO2 plume migration Small scale ~ 1 Mt/y Small scale ~ 1 Mt/y Pressure footprint >> plume Higher overpressures Greater stress on caprock Higher risk for leakage Reach capacity faster Large scale ~ 10 Mt/y Expensive monitoring Uncertainty increases Large, complex simulations

Inputs Modeling and Simulation Field and Laboratory Data Monitoring and Verification New tools and datasets are needed to assess the risks to caprock during high-pressure CO2 injection

Inputs Caprock Integrity Modeling and Simulation Field and Laboratory Data Monitoring and Verification Pressure impacts and geomechanics Reliability and efficiency Multi-scale, upscaling, coupling Caprock Integrity

PROTECT: Protection of caprock integrity for large-scale CO2 storage Objective: Understand the impact of geomechanics, flow and chemistry on caprock integrity in order to: ensure injectivity maximize storage capacity protect against CO2 leakage. Website: www.protect.b.uib.no Industry partners: WP1 - Data needs and process understanding WP2 - Detailed models for flow, reaction and deformation WP3 - Large-scale coupled modeling and upscaling WP4 - Integration & application WP5 - Best practice guidelines & reporting

Geomechanical Data Field and Laboratory Data Valuable mechanical data State-of-the-art mechanical testing Direct shear apparatus Rurikfjellet shale samples (Longyearbyen CO2 Lab) Preserved caprock core

Geophysical Data Inversion Monitoring and Verification Geophysical Data Inversion Adding value to seismic by joint inversion with CSEM Improved saturation and pressure monitoring Verfiy CO2 injection and monitor for leakage Standard seismic inversion saturation pressure Joint inversion with CSEM as prior CSEM monitoring saturation pressure

Fine-scale models Modeling and Simulation Increase understanding of potential for leakage along fractures Multi-dimensional fracture-matrix modeling Evaluate hydrostimulation, geochemical interaction, thermal effects and saturation-induced fracturing Reactive transport Lattice-Boltzmann Hydraulic fracture modeling of LYBCO2

Modeling and Simulation Large-scale Geomechanical Models COMSOL Multiphysics Mixed-dimensional Multi-phase flow Geomechanics VESA Model Multi-phase flow 2D vertical equil. Analytical uplift Hydromechanics Conservative (fractures) Single-phase flow Large-scale Simulating overpressure and comparing results for relevant field cases

Case Study: Utsira 15 Gt storage capacity Evaluate seal What is practically achievable storage capacity? Prevent leakage by maintaining a safe pressure both during and after injection 15 Gt storage capacity Evaluate seal Estimate capacity Two-step approach: Simple analytical model Large-scale simulations Kirby et al. 2001

Pressure-limited capacity of the Utsira Δpmax (bar) CO2 mass (Mt) 5 Gt storage in south Utsira Zhou et al. Closed system dV = Vf (βw + αB/ϕ) dp Compressible sand Max dp 15 bar 8.3 Gt storage ~50% NPD

Pressure-limited capacity of the Utsira CO2 mass (Mt) 12.2 Gt stored by 2050 5 Gt storage in south Utsira 8.3 Gt storage ~50% NPD

Maintain local injectivity 5 Gt CO2 in 50 years (100 Mt/y) Is it sustainable? Maintain local injectivity Plumes are localized

Case Study: Smeaheia Candidate for first ever full-scale CCS Statoil feasibility study 1.5 Mt/y injection Safe storage within local structural traps Capacity for larger injection? Planned study in SUCCESS: Pressure buildup around sensitive faults and anticlines. Analysis of data and uncertainty

Outlook Keys to safe storage Future direction global vs local pressure management limiting overpressure in sensitive shallow regions water production in post-injection can be effective data-driven simulation impact of data uncertainty Future direction more testing, lab experiments, field data collection, interpretation of existing data develop open databases upscaled fault models benchmarking

People and Info Poster Session CIPR IFE NGI UiO UiB PROTECT Website: www.protect.b.uib.no CIPR Trond Mannseth Svenn Tveit Maria Elenius Ivar Aavatsmark IFE Magnus Wangen Rainier Van Noort NGI Bahman Bohloli Tore Bjørnarå Joonsang Park UiO Helge Hellevang Hossein Fazeli UiB Jan Nordbotten Wietse Boon Poster Session PROTECT SUCCESS Integration (M. Elenius)