Tom Vander Beken & Karen Verpoest Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Legitimate Business to Organised Crime Theory and Practice Tom Vander Beken & Karen Verpoest 6th Colloquium on Cross-Border Crime “Crime and Economy and Crime Economy” Berlin, 3 September 2004

Overview 1. Background 2. Methodology for licit market scans 3. An EU-case study of the transport sector

1. Background (a) Descriptive reports on OC needed improvement (CRIMORG 55 & 19) Development of a methodology to draft more future oriented oc-risk assessments (Reporting on Organised crime. From Description to Explanation in the Belgian Annual Reports on Organised Crime, IRCP, 2001) Action Plan to convert the OCSR into an annual strategic report for planning purposes - acceptance of IRCP work into EU-framework (CRIMORG 133, 2002)

1. Background (b)

2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (a) Measuring the vulnerability of legal economic sectors for organised crime, a case study of the diamond sector (IRCP and Antwerp University, 2001-2003) MAVUS (Method for and Assessment of Vulnerability of Sectors): case studies of the Transport sector and the Music Sector (IRCP, Transcrime, Max-Planck-Institute, Cardiff University, Amsterdam University, 2003-2004)

2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (b) “Vulnerability study”: identification of crime opportunities that might be exploited by OC Focus on the task environment of criminal activity, not on the “capabilities” of “activities” of crime groups Task environment = the legal market How? Analysing the external environment

2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (c) Sector Analysis MESO Cluster Analysis MACRO Reference Model Analysis MICRO Width Scan INDICATORS Depth Scan VULNERABILITY PROFILE Conclusions & Recommendations

2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (d)

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (a) SECTOR ANALYSIS Literature/Eurostat/Sector organisations MAIN CONCLUSIONS important economic sector Open market with strong competition Non-transparent price-formation

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (b) CLUSTER ANALYSIS Law enforcement authorities/Customs authorities/security sector representatives MAIN CONCLUSIONS Important role of sector organisations Low quality of regulation Low quantity of enforcement Sector subjected to various crime types

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (c) ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN: PEST Literature/public and private sector bodies MAIN CONCLUSIONS Political White Paper Economic JIT/delocalisation/bipolarisation Social Global Village/Image of the sector Technological ITS & techno-preventive developments

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (d) REFERENCE MODEL Literature/private sector MAIN CONCLUSIONS Business process ‘Production’ =activity outside the transport company Business process ‘Personnel Management’ =lack of personnel-screening

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (e)

3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (f)