Predicting Presidential Elections From 1900 until Today Richard Hogan GIS Day 2016 Purdue University, WL, IN November 2016

U. S. Presidential Election of 1900 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican McKinley 292 65% 7,219,193 52% Democrat Bryant 155 35% 6,357,698 46% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1900  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1912 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Taft 8 1.5% 3,486,343 23.2% Democrat Wilson 435 81.9% 6,294,327 41.8% Progressive T. Roosevelt 88 16.6% 4,120,207 27.4% Socialist Debs 0% 900,370 6.0% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1912  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1920 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Warren Harding 404 76.1% 16,151,916 60.3% Democrat James M. Cox 127 23.9% 9,134,074 34.1% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1920  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1928 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Herbert Hoover 444 83.6% 21.432,823 58.2% Democrat Alfred E. Smith 87 16.4% 15.004,336 40.8% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1928  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1932 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Herbert Hoover 59 11.1% 15,760,425 39.6% Democrat F. D. Roosevelt 472 88.9% 22,818,740 57.4% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelectin.php?year=1932  

U.S. Private Production Per-capita, 1800-1940 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, 1789-1945 (D. C., 1949).

U. S. Presidential Election of 1948 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Thomas E. Dewey 189 35.6% 21,970,064 45.1% Democrat Harry Truman 303 57.1% 24,105,810 49.5% States’ Rights Strom Thurman 39 7.3% 1,169.114 2.4% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1948  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1960 * Harry F. Byrd (D Va.), received 15 electoral votes from unpledged electors: 6 in Alabama, 8 in Mississippi, and 1 in Oklahoma Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Nixon 219 40.8% 34,108,157 49.5% Democrat J. F. Kennedy 303 56.4% 34,226,731 49.7% S. Democrat Byrd* 15 2.8% 0% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1960  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1968 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Nixon 301 55.9% 31,785,480 43.4% Democrat Humphrey 191 35.5% 31,275,166 42.7% American Independent Wallace 45 8.4% 9,906,473 13.5% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1968  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1972 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican R. M. Nixon 520 96.7% 47,169,911 60.7% Democrat G. McGovern 17 3.2% 29,170,383 37.5% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1972  

U. S. Presidential Election of 1992 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican G. H. W. Bush 168 31.2% 39,103,882 37.4% Democrat W. J. Clinton 370 68% 44,909,326 43.0% Independent H. Ross Perot 0% 19,741,657 18.9% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1992  

U. S. Presidential Election of 2012 Party President Electoral # E% Popular # P% Republican Mitt Romney 206 38.3% 60,932,152 47.2% Democrat Barack Obama 332 61.7% 65,899,660 51.1% Source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=2012  

Summary of Elections by Predictors Elections Years Predictors Comments 1900, 1920, 1928 #1 Tradition/Habit Vote as you shot; woo West 1912, 1948*, 1968 #2 Party Unity Progressives and Socialists 1932, 1992, 2008 #3 Economic Crisis It’s the Economy, Stupid 1960, 1948*, 1996 #4 Home field advantage Big state slates 1972 #5 Changing political geography Civil rights and Nixon’s plan * Incumbent wins despite disunity but carries Border States—Truman born in Missouri