IEA-DSM Task XXI Expert meeting Household Subsidy Programme – Norway Energy savings from residential heating technology deployment (ex.: heat pumps) IEA-DSM Task XXI Expert meeting Madrid, 13.-14. Oct 2010 Even Bjørnstad Enova SF

Programme description Heating of homes High dependence on direct electrical heating Subsidy for el. Saving heating technologies: 20 % - max €625 2003, 2006 -> Successful market development How to measure savings?

Key methodological challenges: Variation in heating need Heating vs. non-heating electricity consumption Accuracy of consumption data

{ 1) Variation in heating needs (in time and space) HDD = Heating Degree Days Defines the normal year { 0 if t* ≥ 17 ˚C HDD = 17 - t* otherwise t* = avg. daily temp. in ˚C

2) Heating vs. non-heating consumption or: end use distribution Necessary to identify heating part Typically >60 % of household el consumption for heating Alt 1: Explicitly calculate heating share Alt 2: Heating share as residual after ”basic need”

3) Consumption data - Metered - Biased by substitutions, rebound, etc? - Based on survey

Parameters and variables TC = total consumption of electric energy, kWh HC = heating consumption of electric energy, kWh NHC = non-heating consumption of electric energy, kWh HDD = Heating Degree Days N = index referring to a normal year t = time (years) after installation. t = 0: last year before installation, baseline year t = 1: first year after installation t = T: lifetime of the investment/installation i = 1..n = household index/identifier. n = number of households participating in the programme k = number of members in the household S = net (annual) savings, kWh PS = programme savings, kWh LS = lifetime savings r = depreciation factor

Formulas

Calculation Calculated average saving per household: 6.121 kWh/year Programme savings year 1: 6.121 kWh * 18.000 households = 110 GWh Programme savings year 7 – after market development: 6.121 kWh * appr. 400.000 households = 2,45 TWh

Discounting of energy result? Q1) Should future programme results be ”diminshed”? Q2) If yes, how? Discounting: or: Depreciation: