Regional Actors II: ASEAN and Australia Week 6 Regional Actors II: ASEAN and Australia ASEAN: Core of Region? ASEAN Wavering? Australian Role?

Readings… Denny Roy, “Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 27, No. 2 (August 2005), pp. 305-322. http://www.ou.edu/uschina/texts/Roy2005SEAsiaChina.pdf Eric Heginbotham, “The Fall and Rise of Navies in East Asia Military Organizations, Domestic Politics, and Grand Strategy,” International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Fall 2002), pp. 86–125. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3092144.pdf Defence White Paper 2009 - Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century, Force 2030, http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/docs/defence_white_paper_2009.pdf

ASEAN+N ASEAN+3 ASEAN+1 ASEAN Regional Forum http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/mediafile/201007/24/P201007241103221750159715.jpg Association of South-East Asian Nations http://visitbulgaria.info/files/asean.gif

We want our neighbors be secured and rich!! Is that Truth? PRC’s Good Neighbor Policy http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01001/asian1_1001086c.jpg http://www.asean-cn.org/UploadFiles/XWDT/2010/11/20101123162341.jpg

Balancing the Rising PRC Anyway? Asian Financial Crisis, 1997… Balancing the Rising PRC Anyway? http://www.boeing.com/companyoffices/gallery/images/fa18/fa1828.jpg http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_w1Te9kELSl8/Sfa8vv0zl6I/AAAAAAAAD_o/Rk_eqh_WsOk/s400/Russian+kilo+class+submarines.jpg http://www.airpower.at/news04/0706_flanker/vietnamese_su-27_a.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/39/Chakri_Naruebet_2001.JPEG/800px-Chakri_Naruebet_2001.JPEG

US Returns? http://iraq.pigstye.net/images/articles/USSMustiniswelcomedinVietnam_1_original.jpg http://ootp.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/silhouette-at-sunrise_090724.png?w=600&h=429

SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization Not Really… http://img.tamtay.vn/files/photo2/2009/3/21/17/3590156762/49c4c5cf_1.jpg http://www.npr.org/news/images/2005/apr/29/corbis/saigon_helicopter200.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/CongressBuilding_SEATO.jpg

Not Really… ASEAN Way http://media.photobucket.com/image/ASEAN%20ARF/theonlinecitizen/Pictures%20Posted%20on%20TOC/Regional/aean.gif

1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 Because of Power and Location http://travelingblondes.com/images/Maps/southeast_asia_map2.gif

South China Sea Disputes… http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/south-china-sea-claims3.gif http://www.southchinasea.org/macand/Images/SpratlyMap2.jpg

Freedom of Navigation is our “Vital Interest”! Pratas Islands http://www.iol.co.za/polopoly_fs/hillary-clinton-1.1074569!/image/2742044691.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_300/2742044691.jpg Macclesfield Bank South China Sea is one of our “Core Interests”! http://media.worldbulletin.net/250x190/2012/09/05/chinese-foreign-minister-yang-jiechi.jpg

Why?? Also A Constructed Issue Economic Value? Strategic Value? http://i.ytimg.com/vi/M3VaWb7qTUs/0.jpg “Islands” too small, Landmass near by http://talkvietnam.com/uploads/2011/07/nui-le-island-spratly-archipelago.jpg http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2171/2391063199_5c41b3811f.jpg

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Article121 Regime of islands 1. An island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide. 2. Except as provided for in paragraph 3, the territorial sea, the contiguous zone, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf of an island are determined in accordance with the provisions of this Convention applicable to other land territory. 3. Rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/weeklynews/aug09/arcticmap3.jpg United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3a/Okinominamiiwa_of_Senkaku_Islands.jpg

Taiping Dao /Itu Aba 0.49 Sq Km The Largest and the Only “Island” in the South China Sea……. Taiping Dao /Itu Aba 0.49 Sq Km http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3417/3657034623_a35bf107d8.jpg

Possible Effects on EEZ Delimitation……. http://www.southchinasea.org/maps/South%20China%20Sea%20Tables%20and%20Maps_files/schinasea.jpg

How about the Extended Continental Shelf ……?? http://www.southchinasea.org/maps/South%20China%20Sea%20Tables%20and%20Maps_files/schinasea.jpg

~3,000m Depth that Matters……. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EOjkxtWZsJM/Ti4kPP3_fCI/AAAAAAAABW8/2lDVp2U5ctc/s640/Disputed+Spraly+Islands%252C+Google+Earth.jpg http://amuseum.cdstm.cn/AMuseum/oceanic/Pages/resource/res_1_petrodepth.html

Strategic Passage…….?? diego garcia http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_E-QOnTGFX_o/R1Fiw58kh3I/AAAAAAAACVo/JN8swm-FWFk/s1600-R/Maritime-Interests12.jpg diego garcia http://space4peace.net/images/diego_garcia2.jpg http://farm1.static.flickr.com/4/5140137_ee5343c06d.jpg

Australian Role? Active Actor? Pro-Pro-Pro-US? Targeting PRC? Crucial element: US continued presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Australian Eye Rise of China in China has the potential to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy around 2020. Relationship between Washington and Beijing will be of paramount importance in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan will remain a source of potential strategic miscalculation. The Government reaffirms Australia's longstanding 'One China' policy.

Power relations will inevitably change Power relations will inevitably change. When this happens there will be the possibility of miscalculation. The pace, scope and structure of China's military modernization have the potential to give its neighbors cause for concern if not carefully explained. China has begun to do this in recent years, but needs to do more, particularly as the modernization appears potentially to be beyond the scope of Taiwan.

“…we would be concerned about the emergence of a security environment dominated by any regional power, or powers, not committed to the same shared goals. It would be in our strategic interests in the decades ahead that no power in the Asia-Pacific region would be able to coerce or intimidate others in the region through the employment of force, or through the implied threat of force, without being deterred, checked or, if necessary, defeated by the political, economic or military responses of others in the region….”

Missions Assisting Southeast Asian partners to meet external challenges, and to meeting alliance obligations to the United States. Humanitarian relief, disaster recovery , evacuation of our nationals, counter-terrorism, counter-piracy, and resource protection. Conventional combat in coalition with others to counter coercion or aggression against our allies and partners.

Arms Buildup… http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/gallery/1061/AEW&CW.jpg http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_AGM-158_JASSM_Flight_Side_lg.jpg X6 http://www.warshipsifr.com/media/JSF.jpg X3 X2 http://www.military-today.com/navy/collins_class.jpg http://www.marinelog.com/IMAGESMMVII/oznvantiabig.jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LHD_Juan_Carlos_I_(L-61)-02.jpg

U.S. Base… http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/04/05/world/asia/05australia/05australia-articleLarge.jpg Possible… http://www.australian1.com/maps/Maps_of_Australia/Map_of_Australia.gif

Threat Assessment Australia will remain a secure country over the period to 2030. Our maritime approaches give us strategic depth. Attacks on Australia would only be possible by forces with access to bases and facilities in our immediate neighborhood. Australia can deterrent against threats posed by all but a handful of the world's most significant military powers. http://wholesalebanking.standardchartered.com/en/PublishingImages/maps/se_asia.gif

. …our neighbors in Southeast Asia sit astride our northern approaches, through which any hostile forces would have to operate in order to sustainably project force against Australia http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_E-QOnTGFX_o/SdTLikfrVGI/AAAAAAAAG9k/XycjJuxR8TE/s400/asia_1941.jpg

Embrace the United States, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and other regional states within a community, Asia Pacific Community, by 2020. ……Not Really a “Regional” Power http://newmatilda.com/files/images/bleak-apec-inside.jpg