Total Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Conventional & Alternative Fueled Vehicles Mario W. Cardullo, P.E. Virginia Tech-NVGC

Total Life Cycle Cost Analysis Considers all system costs - both internal and external Internal cost normally covered Environmental Externalities - not normally covered

Clean Air Goals Historical - no strong U.S. national policy to foster use of alternative fuels. 1990s more stringent air pollution legislation and regulations Clean Air Act (1970) and Amendments (1990) Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs)

Mobile Sources of Emissions - 1988 Vehicle Type HC NOx CO Particulates Lt-Duty Gasoline 92 67 91 6.5 Hvy-Duty Diesel 4 29 2 89 Hvy-Duty Gasoline 3 3 6 0.5 Lt-Duty Diesel 1 1 1 4

Comparison of Performance of Alternative Fueled Vehicles Vehicle Type Range (km) Top Speed (kph) Load Capacity (kg) Gasoline Powered 520 >100 500 to 1,000 Electric 100 to 200 (Battery Type) 80 to 150 500 to 800 Methanol (M85) 300 to 400 >100 500 to 1,000 Ethanol 350 to 450 >100 500 to 1,000 CNG 150 to 200 >100 400 to 900 LPG 450 to 500 >100 500 to 1,000

Environmental Externalities Cost and benefits not borne by the producers or consumers Majority of environmental externalities are negative Externalities are troublesome in a market economy. Value of externalities in monetary terms - monetization

Monetized Externalities Makes clear and understandable comparisons between direct economic costs and environmental costs Allows for consistent treatment and evaluation of environmental issues

Monetary Values Adopted in U.S. (1990 $ per ton) Pollutant/ Impact California Mass. New York Nevada New Jersey CO2 26 23 1.1 22 14 NOx 24,500 6,500 1,832 6,800 1,707 SOx 18,300 1,500 832 1,560 4,226 Particulates 5,300 4,000 333 4,180 2,477 VOC 17,500 5,300 - 1,180 - CO - 870 - 920 - CH4 - 220 - 220 - N2O - 3,960 - 4,140 -

Module Logical Interactions

Market Penetration Logistics Curve (S-shaped) Key Variables Year in which penetration begins Rate of penetration Ultimate market size Avoided cost

Balanced Introduction Early introduction - but sustainable growth High penetration rates aided by desirable characteristics Large rather than constrained market opportunities Windows of Opportunity Technology Lock-out

Alternative Vehicles Must Be Competitive Must be effectively competitive with ICs with respect to: Costs of both fuel and vehicle performance and technological competitiveness Availability - including infrastructure

Total Life Cycle Cost Model Total Systems Approach Vehicle related costs Fleet related costs Externality costs

System Context Diagram Consumers Environmental Infrastructure Subsystem Alternative Fueled Vehicle System Governmental Policy & Regulations Vehicle Subsystem Competing Systems Economy

TLCC Model

Life Cycle Cost Summary

Excel Workbook

Sample Embedded Set

TLCC Input Module

Prior Life Cycle Cost Studies Prior studies to date lack sufficient scope for policy analysis Most Complete studies Cars & Vans - Hardy, JPL (1985) Buses - Booz-Allen & Hamilton (1990) U.S. DOT (1986) Most studies of hybrids - limited to propulsion system components only

TLCC Model Development Developed using Microsoft Excel Version 4a for Windows Uses Workbook concept within Excel 12 Modules within LCC Workbook Embedded data sets (EDS) with various modules Cars & vans primarily based on JPL Buses - based on Booz-Allen Hamilton and U.S. DOT studies

EDS within TLCC Model EDS 1 - Discount Factor EDS 2 - Vehicle Curb Weight EDS 3 - Electric Drive Component Cost Factors EDS 4 - ICE Componet Cost Factors EDS 5 - Fuel Cell Performance & Cost Factors

EDS within TLCC Model (cont.) EDS 6 - Battery Performance & Cost Factors EDS 7 - Power System Maintenance Factors EDS 8 - Vehicle Insurance Factors EDS 9 - Emissions Unit Cots EDS 10 - Vehicle Emissions Factors

Cost Comparison of Passenger Vehicles

Trade-Off Between Environmental and Vehicle Costs

Types of Power Systems Fuel Cell/Battery ICE Battery

Types of ICEs in Model Gasoline or alternative fuels Diesel Methanol CNG Diesel

Types of Batteries in Model Low Performance Medium Performance High Performance Aluminum-Air Bipolar Iron-Air Lead-Acid Lithium-Iron Nickel-Iron Sodium-Sulfur Zinc-Bromine Zinc-Chloride

Type of Fuel Cells in Model Phorosphoric Acid (PAFC) Proton Exchange Membrane (PEMFC) Solid Polymer Electrolyte (SPE) Trifluoromethane Sulfuric Acid (TFMSAFC)

Types of Motor/Controller in Model AC DC brushless DC brush

Types of Fuel in Model Gasoline Diesel Methanol (M100) Ethanol Methane (CNG) Ammonia Reformulated Gasoline Reformulated Diesel M85

TLCC Model Unique Features Parametric analysis of battery technologies Parametric analysis of advances in conventional vehicle technology Environmental cost of on-board and stationary power plant emissions Cost and performance for fuel tank variations Operates on PC using Microsoft Excel Model structure provides flexibility to update & expand