U.S. Society for Ecological Economics Conserving and Regenerating Forests and Soils to Mitigate Climate Change       U.S. Society for Ecological Economics Macalester College, St. Paul Minnesota June 27, 2017 Jonathan M. Harris and Anne-Marie Codur http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae Copyright © 2017 Jonathan M. Harris

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/climate/ClimatePolicyBrief4.pdf

Climate Emergency In 2017: CO2 concentration = 400 ppm “ If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that.” - James Hansen (2008) In 2017: CO2 concentration = 400 ppm Paris Agreement’s goal: temperature < + 2°C by 2100 IPCC projections: this means CO2 concentration < 480 ppm by 2100 Negative Emissions (Carbon sequestration in soils and Biomass) is absolutely needed

IPCC Projections

Emissions gap at the horizon 2030 Gap between Total of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and level that would be consistent with 2°C: 12 to 14 Gigatons of CO2 per year = 3.3 to 3.8 Gt of Carbon Note: 1Gt of Carbon = 3.67 Gt of CO2

Soils: the largest Carbon sink Carbon in Atmosphere: 860 Gigatons Carbon in Plant biomass: 550 Gigatons Carbon in Soils: 2300 Gigatons Carbon in topsoil (40cm = 16 inches): 860 Gigatons Note: data in this figure is from 2011, when Carbon concentration in atmosphere was 800 Gt

Healthy soils are thriving ecosystems: Soils are alive A handful of soil has more living organisms than there are people on planet Earth. Soils are the stomach of the earth, consuming, digesting, and cycling nutrients and organisms.

Healthy soils are full of Carbon The world’s cultivated soils have lost between 50 and 70 percent of their original carbon stock, much of which has oxidized upon exposure to air to become CO2 Soil in a long-term experiment appears red when depleted of carbon (left) and dark brown when carbon content is high (right). Source: Rattan Lal, quoted in http://e360.yale.edu/feature/soil_as_carbon_storehouse_new_weapon_in_climate_fight/2744/

Soil erosion and compaction Bare soils are vulnerable to wind and water erosion Pasture: compaction due to hoof traffic often associated with over-grazing. Tillage and very heavy equipment (sugarcane production): soil structure is further degraded

Biomass of roots in natural prairies vs Biomass of roots in natural prairies vs. short roots of cultivated grains wheat corn

Soil depletion: an urgent crisis “Soil is being swept and washed away 10 to 40 times faster than it is being replenished” - David Pimentel, soil scientist, 2006 One third of ALL lands is highly to moderately degraded 50% of agricultural soils are degraded (FAO, 2006)

Source: http://www. fewresources

Technical potential for Soils Carbon sequestration – Agricultural soils: 1.4 GtC/year (ca. 0.48% of top soil organic C stock) – Forests soils and agroforestry soils: 1.3 GtC/year – Salt affected and desertified soils: 0.5-1.4 GtC/yr (Lal, 2010) Total estimated to 3.4 Gt per year Sources: Rattan Lal, Ohio State Univerty, Suzanne Lutfalla and Jean-François Soussana, INRA, Paris, The ‘4 per 1000’ Initiative and its international research program

4 per 1000 per year: Carbon in topsoil (40cm = 16 inches): 860 Gigatons Adding an extra 3.4Gt of Carbon in topsoils per year: 3.4/860 = 0.004 = 4 per 1000

Paris, December 2015, French Ministry of Agriculture launches: To increase carbon concentration in soils by 4 per 1000 per year = 0.4% per year

Some proposed methods: bolstering soil microbiology root, or mycorrhizal fungi and microorganisms agroforestry programs biochar Terracing in mountainous terrains Etc…

Regenerating soils: a Win-Win solution for mitigating climate change and for food security Restore soils to sequester carbon back where it belongs, in the soils and in the plants: this is the most efficient and safest climate mitigation strategy (no need for geoengineering!) Restore soils to enhance Food security: + 1 ton of soil carbon per hectare per year increases crop yield by * 20 to70 kg per hectare of wheat, * 10 to 50 kg per hectare of rice, * 30 to 300 kg per hectare of maize which would lead to an increase of 24 to 40 million metric tons in grain production at the global level

REDD+ Biomass sink enhancement REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Halt deforestation 1.1 GtC/y Remove CO2 by restoring forest capacity over next 50 years at average rates of Allow current second growth forests to reach maturity 2 GtC/y Restore degraded forests 1 GtC/y Reforest recently deforested lands 1 GtC/y (From: William Moomaw, “Meeting the Paris Goals: Clean Energy, Forests, and Soils”, presentation at ISEE, June 2016)

Paris agreement without soil regeneration and biomass sink improvements – horizon 2030

With implementation of soil regeneration and biomass sink enhancement (4per1000 and REDD+) Potential land sink: 3Gt + additional 3.4Gt in soils + additional 2.1Gt in biomass (conservative figure) = 8.6Gt

“Carbon farming” by the 3 billion rural poor Sequestering an additional ton of carbon costs $70 to $140 per year, for croplands soils $180 to $280 per year, for grasslands and forests Mostly labor costs => more jobs in rural areas (reduce the exodus of rural poor to urban slums) Total cost of sequestering 3.5Gt C per year = $500billions 3 billion rural poor => $160 per person per year How to finance it? Redirect current agricultural subsidies (which benefit large corporate agro-business) towards “Carbon farming” subsidies which benefit small scale subsistence farmers

30 countries (18 European countries; 10 countries in the Global South) 4per1000: A growing international coalition of nation-states, international organizations, NGOs, research centers, universities, farmers organizations, and businesses 30 countries (18 European countries; 10 countries in the Global South) 8 International Organizations (including the World Bank, the Global Environmental Facility, and the FAO) 26 Universities and research institutes 30 farmers organizations 25 businesses 50+ NGOs

International Soil Carbon Initiatives

In the USA: States programs on soils and carbon

THANK YOU!