Notes 14.1 - 14.2 Windham E. Loopesko INTB 3000 Fall 2013 University of Colorado – Denver November 18-22, 2013 Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.1 – The demographic challenge In the life of my dad (94), world population has increased from under 2 to over 7 billion Forecasts – 8 billion by late 2020s, 9 by 2050 The key – total fertility rates; reproduction is 2.1 (Global South – 2.3) Most Global North countries (plus China) are below this rate; massive growth will occur in certain African and Asian nations Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.1 – Demographic stages Traditional – high birth/death rates = stability Early modernity – death rates fall (nutrition, medicine, wealth); population increases Later modernity – birth rates fall as people live longer and conditions improve Demographic change is like turning an oil tanker; trends change only over decades; Global South countries will continue to increase Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Demography; environment Week 14.1 – Global aging World median age today is 29; by 2050, 38 By 2050, over 1/3 of the population over 60 These changes will cause huge wealth shifts among countries; younger countries will have a “demographic dividend” (= higher growth); aging countries will strain to cover the higher health care costs and lower productivity Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Demography; environment Week 14.1 – Urbanization By 2050, the Global North will be 86% urban; the Global South 64%, with some urban areas over 40 million 95% of world population growth will take place in Global South cities (and farmland vanishes) How do we meet the challenge of feeding 9 billion people in 2050? Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.1 – Some ways to reverse demographic trends The above demographic trends could reverse if we have: Contagious disease epidemics Famine (particularly in areas of Africa and Asia) Catastrophic wars (nuclear?) Is anyone in this class ready to accept these “cures”? Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.2 – The tragedy of the commons The “commons” – traditionally, a “common area” in the village where all can graze cattle The plan works – as long as no one overgrazes But each individual wants to maximize his own profit – and thus grazes as much as he can The result – the grazing area is destroyed; collective action and self-limitation are necessary to make it work (e.g., overfishing) Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Demography; environment Week 14.2 – Energy The average US citizen consumes 6X the average amount for a Global South citizen Cheap oil is over; cheap gas emerging Energy demands from the Global South are likely to skyrocket Renewables are not yet cost-effective, and allocation of conventional energy resources remains a major concern Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.2 – Environmental pollution Primarily a Global North concern Air pollution in Beijing (January 2013) – 40X acceptable levels One billion people in the world suffer health problems from pollution; 20% of Global South health problems are environmentally related Transportation a growing concern compared to industry Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Demography; environment Week 14.2 – Climate change The average temperature has increased 1.4° F estimates for the next 100 years are between 2.7-10.7° F. Consequences include: Rising sea levels (coastal city flooding) Warmer winters and droughts More violent hurricanes Widespread animal and plant extinctions Spread of illnesses More acidic oceans (changing the ecosystem) Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Demography; environment Week 14.2 – Deforestation Forest areas the size of England are disappearing every; rainforests (and their genetic heritage) are a special concern Not all Global South accept that the world’s forest are a “common heritage of mankind” More than 1/3 of species threatened by extinction ¾ of fish species falling below sustainable levels 150 extinctions every day (estimate) Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013

Week 14.2 – Desertification Desertification – lands previously viable for grazing and/or cultivation become deserts Asia fishing villages – now 40 miles from coast Water demand growing rapidly as middle class grows – in 2010 8% of world population water stressed; estimates for 2050 are 45% Demography; environment 11/18-22/2013