Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca Lessons for the U.S. from High-Speed Rail’s Urban Impact in China Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca In collaboration with Prof. Qiyan Wu, Mr. Jingwei Sun, and Mr. Haoyu Hu

China offers an opportunity to learn from the rapid development of both mobility infrastructure and urbanization 19,000 km. HSR network built in 9 years 57 story tower built in 19 days 2

China’s HSR network is big enough to reveal 3 different development patterns 3

Corridor Mode (CM) adopts Shinkansen mobility model: a single route linking mega-cities Metro Tokyo - 32.5 million population Metro Osaka - 18.7 million population 4

Monocentric Radial Mode (MRM) copies French TGV network linking regional cities through a financial and political hub 5

21st century super-cities like Jing-Jin-Ji Multicore Network Mode (MNM) is latest HSR configuration that enables commuting in 21st century super-cities like Jing-Jin-Ji Jing = Beijing; Jin = Tianjin; Ji = Heibi Province Population: 130 million; physical area 90% of United Kingdom; Commuting time by HSR & other trains ≤ 1 hour 6

Comparing Different HSR Configurations  China’s HSR Infrastructure Length (mi) Comparable U.S. Markets Harbin-Dalian Corridor (CM) 568 Los Angeles – San Francisco 468 Yangtze Delta Network (MNM) 910 NE Regional from Maine to Virginia 914 Jing-Jin-Ji Supercity (MNM) 710 CA corridors: Surfliner; San Joaquin; Capitol 833 Greater Wuhan Hub (MRM) 648 Chicago to St. Louis; Detroit; Milwaukee 674 7

Accessibility assessment method for rail network nodes Monzon et. al Accessibility is measured by dividing a HSR station’s importance in the network (population or GDP) by generalized travel time to other stations in the network   8

Corridor Mode accessibility analysis reveals HSR working to spread regional growth Harbin – Dalian HSR corridor: 568 miles 9

Harbin- Dalian corridor’s accessibility distribution is boosted along the infrastructure, peaking where the HSR corridor splits into two branches 10

Shin 11

Effect of greater accessibility along Harbin to Dalian corridor enables growth in intermediate cities to lead endpoint growth 568 mile length 3.5 hour trip end to end Shared tracks Harbin – 3.5 million pop. Dalian – 3.24 million Corridor is one third longer than L.A. to San Francisco , with lower population in the Chinese endpoints than in California 12

Could California’s HSR corridor experience a similar development effect ? 468 miles in length 2 hour, 40 minute trip time Shared tracks Los Angeles metro area– 13 million pop. San Francisco – 7 million 13

Central Valley sits between mega-cities at either end of this corridor From Fresno north, it’s around an hour’s trip time to Silicon Valley HSR could spur more affordable housing for commuters to both Bay Area and LA Basin 14

Monocentric Radial Mode suggests HSR infrastructure can distribute growth across a region centred on a hub 648 route mi. of HSR converge at Wuhan 15

Wuhan’s HSR hub serves a population of over 70 million and a regional GDP of over $500 billion 16

Wuhan’s HSR infrastructure configuration concentrates accessibility, but then spreads growth around the region 17

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Could a Chicago HSR hub distribute growth more evenly around and between Midwest cities? Chicago metro area– 9.5 million pop. Detroit metro area – 4.3 million pop. St. Louis metro area – 2.9 million pop. Milwaukee metro area – 1.6 million pop. 20

Multicore Network Mode infrastructure takes metropolitan development to an unprecedented scale 131,000 square mile supercity served by HSR around JingJinJi 21

Jing-Jin-Ji supercity accessibility is a work in progress 22

More than just HSR infrastructure will be needed to enable HSR commuting in the “bedroom cities” of Jing-Jin-Ji 23

Supercity development will depend on better intermodal integration with HSR 24

Multicore Network Mode HSR effects are most advanced in the Yangtze Delta At high infrastructure density, Yangtze Delta has the greatest rail accessibility in China 25

Yangtze region accessibility via conventional rail network 26

Yangtze Delta accessibility since HSR 27

HSR commuting in 2014, around (and beyond) Yangtze Delta 28

Economic growth rates are highest in areas where HSR has enabled longer distance commuting 29

Industrial growth has been faster where accessibility is high and land costs less 30

Could parts of California and southern Nevada function as North America’s first supercity? Total regional population 37.5 million Combined economic activity $1.925 trillion What segments could be connected within one hour by rail travel? 31

How will China’s HSR shape urban development there and beyond? China’s HSR-enabled supercities will incorporate three times the population of metro Tokyo, four times that of the BeNeLux region New spatial dynamics can be expected for settlement, industry, and commerce. Exploring the land use interaction with HSR will yield valuable lessons about how HSR can contribute to future urban development, both in China and globally. 32