All-Source Analysis: Making Magic Robert David Steele Intelligence Coach bear@oss.net

Big Change #1: Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW The new world demands that we turn our C4I paradigm on its head. We can no longer plan on unilateral warfare using secret sources that nurture top-down decision-making. Every major issue in national security today requires a bottom-up multi-cultural approach that relies almost exclusively on open sources of information-- sources that can be shared and that do not violate the integrity of any of the participants. The Internet is the C4I backbone of the 21st Century, and that is where we should be investing at least half of our C4I dollars. TRANSITION: Our needs for broader and more diverse open sources of information are also affected by our needs for new forms of coalition among non-traditional allies.

Actionable Intelligence Available Information Big Change #2: The Really Big Gap The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Here is a depiction of the “information explosion” that challenges all knowledge workers, not only in intelligence, but in all occupational specialties. We spend $30 billion a year going after a very small amount of the relevant information--that which we can steal. We spend almost nothing on the predominant bulk of the information that is open--generally information that is not in English and not online. TRANSITION: At the same time, we have to deal with disconnects between our emphasis on secrets and the fact that the majority of the information we need is owned and processed by others. Open source information is more complex than secrets…

Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis Big Change #3: Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere Within the all-source environment, we have yet to devise adequate analytical models that ensure we consider all of the factors bearing on any given situation. This is the model of analysis that we created when we established the Marine Corps Intelligence Center (now a Command). We found that the threat does change depending on the level of analysis--Libyan tanks being a high threat at the technical level of lethality, but low as the tactical level of reliability, medium at the operational level of availability, and low at the strategic level of sustainability. We also found that our entire acquisition program lacks proper intelligence support in the area of strategic generalizations about civil infrastructure and geographic realities. The real world aviation day is hot and humid rather than warm; bridge loading is 30 tons or less, line of sight distance is under 900 meters in all but six countries.

Who is your historian? History is vital to the “framing” of a problem. History from different national & cultural perspectives helps “map” the issues and the differences. History matters!

Who is your librarian? Spies and soldiers are not good at doing research. Librarians, especially the “new” librarians that focus on external discovery instead of internal archiving, are essential to your success.

Internet Competency No longer a toy--now a serious source “All-source” means all sources--the Internet is now a major source Search engines vary. Find images and maps. Find experts and groups. Limit to 1-hour efforts. Need an Internet specialist on call.

Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142 words. Factiva.com DIALOG European Services Value-added is enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval Need a specialist. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, 268 words.

Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, “niche” references. Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability. Unique and useful.

Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations. Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.

Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index Use OSS methodology $500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic Then you call them...

Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools Geospatial tools Structured analysis and detection tools Multi-media publication and presentation tools

Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance Russian military maps of Third World vital Post-processing support from private sector Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context

Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value CIA University breaking new ground Moving away from “cutting and pasting” Moving away from hard-copy files Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data

Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure Also saves money Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager

Analytic Tradecraft #1: Trade-offs analysis in client context Greatest value of analysis is strategic--helping evaluate trade-offs in policy and acquisition and operational costs Analysis must be done in client context but with external views carefully represented

Analytic Tradecraft #2 Nine evaluation criteria for credibility Relevance to policy Analytic sophistication Unique information Timely and concise Facts/sources are stated Conclusions are offered Assumptions are stated Options are outlined

Analytic Tradecraft #3 Assumptions must be specified Separate “box” for assumptions gains consumer confidence List variables and relationships--some are factual, others not Obtain second views Question assumptions

Analytic Tradecraft #4 Alternative outcomes must be specified What are the alternative outcomes? If they occur, what signposts or events might be triggers? In choosing one outcome over others, what judgements were made?

Analytic Tradecraft #5 Facts, opinions, sources Distinguish between direct & indirect sources Be precise about sourcing of information Understand policy sensitivities Respect complexity Account for deception Label judgements

Analytic Tradecraft #6 Harnessing internal and external expertise Must rise above the competition--and use external experts Demonstrate research, scholarship, database access, ground truth, teamwork, experience Customize intelligence for specific individuals

Analytic Tradecraft #7 The art of distillation and summarization 30-second lead buys you 3 minutes for summary which might get them to read it all Focus on what’s new Make it easy to read A few points, clearly Role play the audience Analyst Lead Summary

Analytic Tradecraft #8 Deception, counterintelligence, timeliness Account for denial & disinformation Gaps in collection? Odd contradictions? Odd confirmations? Use textbox to show reader that steps were taken to consider & defeat deception

The Analyst as Manager of Customer Relations Analyst is a manager of personal relations: top policymaker gatekeeper staff heads of bureaus policy analysts embassy counselors visiting dignitaries assigned liaison officers

The Analyst as Manager of Money for Open Sources Analyst is a manager of money to fund: External source discovery & purchase External source processing/evaluation Individual expert consultants Ad hoc team endeavors

The Analyst as Manager of External Experts Analyst is a manager of external experts: Experts in other branches of own government Experts in other governments & NGOs Business sector experts Academic experts Media experts Branch Chief Analyst

The Analyst as Manager of Classified Collection Management Analyst is a manager of classified capabilities: Tasking attaches Tasking spies Tasking technical collection Tasking NATO or USA or other classified assets Suggesting new secret capabilities are needed

Making Magic People, Sources, Tools, Timeframes, Cultures Analyst makes magic by mixing: People with special skills and insights Secret & other sources Tools for thinking Timeframes--taking longer views Cultures--taking different views

Challenges for Analysis Forecasting, Generalizations, Two Levels Down Analyst is sometimes the only one willing to think clearly: about the future of the region and the world about strategic generalizations about details two levels down that impact on more general policies