Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http://cedr.unt.edu Updated: 7/22/14 Websites: www.esa.doc; www.bea.gov; www.census.gov; www.bls.gov; www.federalreserve.gov July 2014

U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change 2013: 1.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product 1Q 2014: -2.9% www.bea.gov – 3rd estimate - updated 6/25/14 Data reflects Historical Revisions due to comprehensive revision to the national Income and Product Accounts released July 31, 2013, by BEA, US Dept. Commerce. Under “National” find the heading that says “Gross Domestic Product” Click on “PDF version of the Gross Domestic Product release” Scroll down to the table titled “Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change from Preceding Period” Next Release: 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands June 2014: 288,000 http://www.bls.gov/ces/ - Updated 7/7 Scroll down and look under “Employment Situation” 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-Present Monthly change, in thousands http://www.bls.gov/ces/ - Updated 7/7 Scroll down and look under “Employment Situation Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) Jun ’14: 31,434 June 2014 job cuts down 41% from May 2014 (52,961) and 20% lower than June 2013 (39,372). – Updated 7/7 www.challengergray.com Click on the “Press Box” tab at the top Under Job Cut Report 2012 2013 2014 Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

Human Sacrifice 2008-Present Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) www.challengergray.com – Updated 7/7 Click on the “Press Box” tab at the top Under Job Cut Report Last Release: May 4, 2011 Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

U. S. Jobless Rate Seasonally adjusted June ’14: 6.1% Updated 7/7 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates May ’14: $14.6 trillion www.bea.gov – Updated 7/7 Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income 2000-13 Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2013: $14,133.5 Billion www.bea.gov Personal Income and Outlay (press release with Dec. data), Table 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Consumption In trillions May ’14: $11.8 trillion www.bea.gov – Updated 7/7 Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Consumption 2000-13 In trillions 2013: $11,499.3 billion www.bea.gov Personal Income and Outlay (press release with Dec. data), Table 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Updated 6/24 (no longer in housing charts) See “housing-charts” on Dallas Fed website

Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted June 2014: $439.9 billion http://www.esa.doc.gov/economic-indicators – Updated 7/22/14 Under “Advance Monthly Retail report” PDF Use “Retail & Food Services, Total” row. 2-3 week data lag Updated 2/14/14 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Retail Sales 2007-Present Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted http://www.census.gov/retail/ – Updated 7/22/14 Under “Advance Monthly Retail report” PDF Use “Retail & Food Services, Total” row. Next Release: December 14, 2011 Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Industrial Production Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted June 2014: 103.9 Annual revisions released March 28, 2014 – Updated 7/22/14 www.federalreserve.gov Link on homepage under Select Statistical Releases Source: Federal Reserve Board

Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted May 2014: $956.1 billion www.esa.doc.gov/about-economic-indicators – Updated 7/7 Click on “Construction Put in Place” One month lag on data 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Construction Spending 2007-Present In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted www.esa.doc.gov/about-economic-indicators – Updated 7/7 Click on “Construction Put in Place” One month lag on data Source: Commerce Department

Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. June ’14: 893,000 http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/ – Updated 7/22/14 Click on PDF version of Current Press Release 2-3 week data lag 2013 2014 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Housing Starts 2000-13 New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. 2013: 923,400 http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/ Click on PDF version of Current Press Release Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands) 43.8 20.8 On the Dallas Morning News website, Jan. 9, 2014, article: http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20140109-dallas-area-homebuilders-cant-keep-up-with-demand-for-new-houses.ece Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies

Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued (in thousands) 49.6 36.2 20.8 On the Dallas Morning News website, Feb. 4, 2014 article: http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/houston-and-d-fw-tops-for-homebuilding-in-2013.html/ Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders

New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands) May 2014: 504,000 www.census.gov/construction/nrs/ - Updated 6/24 Click on Current Press Release pdf file One month data lag 2012 2013 2014 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. May 2014: 4.89 million Realtor.org and type in “existing-home sales” or look in Research & Statistics – Updated 6/24 One month data lag Source: The National Association of Realtors

Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)   2000:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 Low Point Date of Low Point United States 62.8 69.3 64.5 40.4 2006 : Q3 Los Angeles 40.2 28.3 21.1 1.8 New York 42.1 29.8 23 5.1 2006 : Q3/Q4 Miami 58.8 57.8 54.5 10 2007 : Q1 Austin 57.5 64.2 62.9 49.9 2000 : Q4 Dallas 65.3 63.4 60.4 53.7 2007 : Q3 Houston 66.2 64 61.5 47.4 San Antonio 63.3 68.7 65.7 46.5 Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index Through Q3 2013 – Updated 2/7/14 http://www.nahb.org/reference_list.aspx?sectionID=135 Click on the link that says “The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index: Complete History by Metropolitan Area (1991-Current)” Released: Check when Quarterly stuff is released Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

Productivity Nonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 1Q 2014: -3.2% www.bls.gov – 1Q 2014 Revised (6/4/14) Click on Productivity link 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted. June 2014: 0.4% www.bls.gov – Updated 7/22/14 Per Feb 2014 press release: BLS changed from “stage-of-processing to final demand-intermediate demand aggregation system” of reporting 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) June 2014: 0.3% www.bls.gov – Updated 7/22/14 “Consumer Price Index” Scroll down and look at PDF Scroll down and look at table 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 June 2014: 85.2 www.conference-board.org – Updated 7/7 Look under the Economic Indicators box at right of page, click on Consumer Confidence 2013 2014 Source: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 www.conference-board.org – Updated 7/7 Look under the Economic Indicators box at right of page, click on Consumer Confidence Source: The Conference Board

Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. June 2014: 102.2 www.conference-board.org – Updated 7/22 Click on “U.S.” in the Economic Indicators box at the right Approx. 3 week data lag 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: The Conference Board

www.Dallasfed.org website Updated 7/22 Click Research & Data  Regional Economy  Regional Economic Analysis  MORE Regional Analysis Quick Slide Show on the Regional Economy is at bottom. US data: Click Research & Data  US Economy  Slide Show on the US Economy

Things to Worry About Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities European sovereign default Corporate and consumer debt Federal Deficits/Debt Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes Political gridlock Environmental regulations Market volatility

Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2012: -$1.09 trillion 2013: -$679.5 billion 2014 Projected: -$492 billion 2015 Projected: -$469 billion 2016 Projected: -$536 billion www.cbo.gov (search term “budget deficit”) – Updated 6/24 Historical Tables Link, Table 1.1 Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits 1789-2018 Source: Congressional Budget Office

International Goods & Services Trade Deficit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance. May 2014: $44.4 billion www.esa.gov/economic-indicators – Updated 7/22/14 Click on “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” 4-6 week data lag 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Household Net Worth In trillions 1Q 2014: $81.8 trillion www.federalreserve.gov – Updated 6/24 Financial Accounts of the United States – Z.1 Look at Balance Sheets Next Release: Sept 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14 Source: Federal Reserve Board

Updated 7/22

Personal Bankruptcy Filings Fiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions) 2013: 1,072,807 www.uscourts.gov Click on Statistics > Bankruptcy Statistics >2013 Bankruptcy filings Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

Business Bankruptcies 1999 37,884 2007 28,322 2000 35,472 2008 43,546 2001 40,099 2009 60,837 2002 38,540 2010 56,282 2003 35,037 2011 47,806 2004 34,317 2012 40,075 2005 39,201 2013 33,212 2006 19,695 --- www.uscourts.gov Click on Statistics > Bankruptcy Statistics >2013 Bankruptcy filings Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

Savings Rate As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income May ’14: 4.8% www.bea.gov – Updated 7/7 Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Savings Rate 2000-2013 As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income 2013: 4.5% www.bea.gov Personal Income and Outlays (Dec. press release), Table 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Longest Recession Since 1933 Ended June 2009 Harvey’s chart – email Jessica Renier if you have questions. 21 in Sept. Now our copy in recession Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

Pictures from Federal Reserve Updated 7/22

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TXLI Components Changes Mar-Apr-May Updated 7/22 Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

Texas Leading Index 1981-Present Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Go to the Dallas Federal Reserve Website Click Research & Data  Under “Explore the Regional Economy” click Regional Economic Data  Dallas Fed Indexes tab’ Updated 7/22 Last Data Entry: May 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Updated 7/22

Updated 6/24

Next look at Metro Areas and focus on DFW Updated 7/22

Updated 7/22

Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted www.tracer2.com – Updated 7/22 Texas Labor Market Review U. S. June 2014 = 6.1% Texas June 2014 = 5.1% D/FW June 2014 = 5.4% Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Ft. Worth-Arlington MSA Nonagricultural Employment From current “Texas Labor Market Review” – Updated 7/22 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Nonagricultural Employment From current “Texas Labor Market Review” – Updated 7/22 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Sales and Use Tax Allocations   2010 2011 2012 2013 % Chg 12-13 Allen 24,606,228 27,499,534 29,874,634 31,856,091 6.63% Arlington 83,143,848 86,127,967 88,941,229 94,043,810 5.74% Dallas 204,732,898 215,394,908 232,445,766 242,456,290 4.31% Fort Worth 100,569,555 105,424,832 112,745,846 118,919,449 5.48% Frisco 40,303,106 44,280,590 49,889,488 58,676,772 17.61% Plano 58,888,948 66,325,563 68,410,251 69,804,509 2.04% Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Conclusions The US recession is technically over. Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-2013 Financial sector risk Texas has performed better than nation We’ve been “lucky puppies” Market / consumer confidence is major headwind Political failure is hurting growth Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility Housing market will start recovery Local job market growing

Questions? Contact info: tclower@unt.edu 940-565-4049 http://cedr.unt.edu Last Updated Presentation: July 22, 2014