HydroEurope 2017 Week 2: Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion HydroEurope 2017 Week 2: Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Team 11

Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation What Is The Resilience ? Disruption Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion System Original State System Altered State Reaction Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation The ability of a system to recover to original state after distribution. Resilience Ecology Social Engineering

Flood Resilience What Is The Flood Resilience? Risk Management Content Social Structural Spatial Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Spatial Structural Social The permanent flood defence structures such as levees, demountable structures, temporary structures, to meet construction standards to deflect or resist pressure without breaking. The management of land by floodplain zoning, urban greening and management to reduce storm runoff through depression storage and by practicing Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUD's), Best Management Practices (BMP's), Low Impact Development (LID). Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Risk Management The building of robust institutions and governance systems that underpin our capacity to prepare for and cope with uncertainty, change, and disasters when they occur.

Flood Resilience Index FRI Flood Resilience Estimation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Reflect 5 indicators Dimensions Natural Averaged Weight Mean Index Relief 5 indicators Physical Resist 5 indicators Economic Sub-indicators Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Response 5 indicators Social Recovery 5 indicators Institutional Flood Resilience Index FRI Measures for Improvement Reassessment Source: Methodology For FRI, Jelena BATICA

Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation What Is The Accuracy ? “The degree to which the result of a measurement, calculation, or specification conforms to the correct value or a standard.” JCGM 200:2008 Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Accuracy Precision Systematic Error Random Error Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation

VS Accuracy VS Uncertainty Uncertainty Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Uncertainty the range of values within which the true value is asserted to lie with some level of confidence. Accuracy is an expression of the lack of error. VS Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation

Flood Map Accuracy Measurements DEM Resolution Input The Model Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion The Process The Accuracy Measurements DEM Resolution Input The Model Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation The Physical Parameters The Assumptions Output “Flood Map”

Prosperity of City/District Why Do We Need A Flood Map? Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Model Calibrated & Validated (Defined return period ) Forecasting Flood Map Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Decision Makers Flood Resilience Index Mitigation Prevention Prosperity of City/District

Calibration & Validation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Model Calibration Independent Dataset Feedback Loop Model Validation Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Model Application “Validation of computer simulation models is conducted during the development of a simulation model with the ultimate goal of producing an accurate and credible model.” Schlesinger et al. 1979

FM Accuracy Impact On FR Estimation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Resilience Estimation Mitigation Flood Resilience Index FRI Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Water Level & Extend of Flood Preventive Actions Underestimation Different Impacts on the Resilience Estimation Accurate Estimation Overestimation

Underestimation Of The Flood Resilience Flood Plain regulation Property Values Emergency Services Insurance Flood Plain Regulation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Too strict Insurance Under Estimation Property Values Decrease of the value More expensive Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Emergency Services Too extensive Impact Cost

Overestimation Of The Flood Resilience Flood Plain Regulation Does not present the reality Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Insurance Over Estimation Property Values Good Value for dangerous zones Less expensive Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Emergency Services Not prepared enough Impact Cost

Producing The Flood Maps The Objective Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Producing two different Flood Map with different accuracies Calculate the FRI for the produced Flood Maps Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation DEM 50X50 2011 Flood Event DEM 5X5 The Model HEC-RAS 5.0.3 Flood Map Flood Map

The Results: Flood Maps Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Flood Map With DEM 50X50 Flood Map With DEM 5X5

Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation The Results: FRI Maps Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation FRI For FM With DEM 50X50 FRI For FM With DEM 5X5

Good Estimation of the Resilience There Is No 100% Accurate Flood Map! The more accurate the Flood Map, the better the Resilience Estimation Content The Resilience The Accuracy The Flood Map The Impact Case Study Conclusion Good Knowledge of the System Accurate Inputs and Assumptions Well adapted Model Calibrated & Validated Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Flood Map With Good Accuracy Good Estimation of the Resilience “The reason for modelling is a lack of full access, either in time or space, to the phenomena of interest.” N. Oreskes et al., 2010

Thank You For Your Attention ! Flood Map Accuracy & Resilience Estimation Thank You For Your Attention !