Design, Pricing and Scheduling of Flexible Transit Systems (FTS) - New Approaches and Case Studies in Jinan, China Nan Zou, Shandong University, China

Location of Shandong University (SDU)

Flexible Transit Service (FTS) Outline Introduction Flexible Transit Service (FTS) Types and definition Pricing Design Scheduling

Questions to be discussed What is FTS Who may want to use FTS How much can people afford the service What are FTS design principals How to schedule FTS Case studies 1 2 3 4 5 6

Private motor vehicles Service needs for FTS Illustration only Flexibility vs. cost only Private motor vehicles High High Taxi Didi, Uber etc. Flexibility Car pool Flexibility Traditional Public Transit (light rail, metro, BRT, buses) Low Low Low High Cost

Private motor vehicles Service needs for FTS Illustration only Flexibility vs. cost only Private motor vehicles High High Taxi Didi, Uber etc. Flexibility Car pool Flexibility Flexible Transit System Traditional Public Transit (light rail, metro, BRT, buses) Low Low Low High Cost

Purposes of FTS With Better flexibility Mid-level cost Improve public transit service to compete with other trip modes Better sustainability of the entire transportation system More riders of PT systems

What is FTS Flexible route Flexible station Flexible service frequency

Review on Flexible Transit Systems » Different types of FTS 1. Route deviation system 2. Point deviation system 3. Demand-responsive connector system 4. Request stops system 5. Zone route system 6. Flex-route segments system

Pricing analysis for FTS (Case 1) Pricing study of converting an existing traditional transit route No. 131 to a FTS route (Jinan, Shandong Province, China) Number of connecting routes Transit hub: pink Residential communities: dark blue Newly developed office area: green Village: light blue

Same service frequency (Case 1) B23d 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 g=1 -71 -69 -66 -64 -61 -59 -56 -54 -51 -49 -46 -44 -41 g=0.9 -39 -36 -34 g=0.8 -57 -52 -47 -42 -37 -32 -29 -27 g=0.7 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -22 -20 g=0.6 -17 -15 -12 g=0.5 -33 -28 -23 -18 -13 -10 -8 -5 g=0.4 -3 2 g=0.3 -21 -16 -11 -6 -1 4 7 9 g=0.2 -14 -9 -4 1 6 11 14 16 g=0.1 19 21 24 -39 -36 -34 -31 -29 -26 -31 -29 -26 -24 -21 -19 -24 -22 -19 -17 -14 -12 -17 -15 -12 -10 -7 -5 -10 -7 -5 -2 0 3 -3 0 2 5 7 10 5 7 10 12 15 17 12 14 17 19 22 24 19 21 24 26 29 31 26 29 31 34 36 39 ØYellow cells: fare too high, higher than taxi (7.5 Yuan) ØGreen cells: feasible, but high subsidy rate required (>50%) High subsidy is required if same service frequency during off-peak hours

Optimized service frequency (Case 1) Bd 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 g= 1 -45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 0.9 -41 -31 -21 -11 -1 9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 0.8 -37 -27 -17 -7 3 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 0.7 -32 -22 -12 -2 8 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 88 0.6 -28 -18 -8 2 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 0.5 -24 -14 -4 6 16 26 36 46 56 66 76 86 96 0.4 -19 -9 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 0.3 85 95 105 0.2 89 99 109 0.1 -6 4 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 104 114 85 95 105 115 125 135 89 99 109 119 129 139 93 103 113 123 133 143 98 108 118 128 138 148 102 112 122 132 142 152 106 116 126 136 146 156 111 121 131 141 151 161 115 125 135 145 155 165 119 129 139 149 159 169 124 134 144 154 164 174 ØBlue circles: feasible fare and subsidy rate Conclusion: with optimized service frequency, it is possible to run the FTS without subsidy

Survey on FTS service In Jinan 3 main categories Questionnaire survey in Qilu soft park About 13,000 employees working in the park. 20% sampling rate 3000 copies are distributed 2403 copies are confirmed to be qualified response rate > 75% 3 main categories Demographic characteristics Public transit satisfaction (RP) Flexible transit system related (SP) RP: revealed preference survey SP: stated preference survey

Survey on FTS service Flexible transit system related results: 58.8%: willing to use this type of system 20.5%: were very likely to use the system For those who unwilling to use: 56.8% don’t want to pay the additional fee 27.0% worried that the vehicle can’t arrive on time Top valued characteristic: Flexibility Reliability of the arrival time Acceptable maximal fare 3-4 RMB (Bus: 1-2 RMB; Taxi: 8 RMB)

Scheduling model for FTS (Serving 2 transit hubs) » Objectives Minimize Total difference between the actual and the expected departure time ååålijYijk + å(åå XrktTt - tar ) + å(| åå XrktTt - trr |) i j k r k t r k t (6.2a) Total transfer time Total travel time » Target linearization Zr =| åå XrktTt - trr | k t åå XrktTt - trr £ Zr k t trr - åå XrktTt £ Zr k t

Optimization of total travel time and the service quality 1 é nk ìï ùüï K å å MIN a t + tr y (nk )úý ûïþ í ê k =1 ë i=1 2Z r r r ïî k ( i-1) ki knk k 0 2Z å j ( ) ( ) å j + b é ù + d é ù D max a - s , 0 D max s - b , 0 ë û ë û j j j j j j 2 3 Ø Ø Ø Total travel time of the fleet Early arrival ate arrival 1 2 3

Case study in Jinan 2 118 20座 30座 车型 配车数量 (辆) 运行线路 运行时间 (min) 5 14 20座车型线路 6 30座车型线路 1 18 15 T 7 19 16 2 11 8 9 10 13 20 3 4 17 12 车型 配车数量 (辆) 运行线路 运行时间 (min) 20座 2 0-19-20-16-15-0 118 0-1-5-14-18-0 30座 0-7-6-17-12-11-8-2-0 0-10-13-11-9-8-3-4-2-1-0

Research contributors Dr. Shuliang Pan Ph.D. of 2015 Lin Zhu Ph.D. candidate Ying Wang Master of 2013 Shuai Ding Master of 2016 Dr. Jie Yu Associate Professor Dr. Nan Zou

Conclusions and remarks Needs of FTS Different purposes and types Still a challenge to operate a real dynamic FTS

Conclusions and remarks But, can FTS “win”?

Nan Zou nanzou@sdu.edu.cn Mobilize Yichang Design, Pricing and Scheduling of Flexible Transit Systems (FTS) - New Approaches and Case Studies in Jinan, China Thanks. Comments please. Nan Zou nanzou@sdu.edu.cn