Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis Hope & Optimism in Undergraduates: Longitudinal Associations with Grade Goals, Expectancies, and Performance Kevin L. Rand, Kaitlin K. Touza, Eboni Starks, Anne Borden, & Manuela Gonzalez Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis BACKGROUND Hope is defined as a person’s trait belief about his/her ability to reach his/her goals (Snyder, 1994). Research suggests that higher hope is associated with better academic performance. Optimism is the generalized expectancy that positive as opposed to negative outcomes are likely in the future (Scheier & Carver, 1985). Research suggests that greater optimism is also associated with better academic performance. Research examining hope and optimism together showed that hope, but not optimism, predicted overall class grade indirectly through grade expectancy (Rand, 2009). PURPOSE The purpose of the present study was to examine in detail the differential predictive abilities of hope and optimism on grade expectancies, goals, and exam performance in a large undergraduate psychology class. METHOD SAMPLE 334 undergraduates (60.3% female) Primarily Caucasian (75.7%), but included students who identified as African American (6.0%), Hispanic/Latino (3.9%), Asian American (1.8%), and other (4.8%). MEASURES Hope – the Adult Hope Scale (AHS; Snyder, et al., 1991) Optimism – the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R; Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994) Grade Point Average (GPA) – student-reported cumulative GPA Grade Goal – desired final class grade (0-100%) Grade Expectancy – predicted final class grade (0-100%) Performance – instructor-reported percent correct on each class exam (0-100%) PROCEDURE Participants completed measures at the start of the semester and after each exam (1 through 3). Scores (% correct) for each of the four class exams were obtained from the class instructor. RESULTS Goals and expectancies were highly correlated Expectancies were consistently ≈3-4% below goals, representing a “reality adjustment” Grade goal tended not to predict subsequent exam performance (except for Exam 3) Grade expectancy tended to predict subsequent exam performance (except for Exam 2) Hope, but not optimism, predicted grade goal and grade expectancy at each time point. DISCUSSION Student grade goals and expectancies may be aspects of the same expectation construct Student grade goals do not predict exam performance Hope, but not optimism, predicts student grade goals and expectancies When specific performance information is available (i.e., previous exam performance), it is the strongest predictor of grade expectancy. When hope predicts exam performance, it does so indirectly through grade expectancy Grade expectancy may be most influential early in courses when uncertainty is high LIMITATIONS Observational study. Other types of academic performance not studied. Coping and goal-directed behaviors not studied. CONCLUSIONS Hope may influence academic performance indirectly (through expectancy) and only when situational uncertainty is high. Optimism may not influence academic goals, expectancies, or performance. These differential associations may reflect conceptual distinctions between hope and optimism (i.e., beliefs about the self vs. the world). Figure 1 Path model for First Exam (High Situational Uncertainty) .24 .88 Hope Expectancy .01 .22 .26 Optimism .06 -.01 .28 .80 GPA Exam 1 Standardized indirect effects Hope → Exam 1: .06, p = .002 GPA → Exam 1: .06, p = .001 Figure 2 Path model for Last Exam (Low Situational Uncertainty) .13 .62 Hope Expectancy .06 .51 Optimism .14 .11 .01 .06 GPA .10 .43 .69 Exam 3 Exam 4