Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University

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Presentation transcript:

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University The World Economy Christopher Allsopp Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University

Can Russia ‘thrive on chaos’? Background Focus on developed countires The shape of the great recession A large downward ‘level effect’ and slower growth The delayed recovery IMF: patchy and volatile Downside risks because of lack of policy ‘space’

Current concerns Oil prices China slowdown US rate rise QE in Japan and EZ World trade slowdown Productivity slowdown

What about Russia? Highly vulnerable to global slowdown, and oil prices Energy sector accounts for about 25 % GDP, nearly half of government revenues, and about 70% of export revenues. Large fall in exchange rate Inflation and living standards But good for some industries

Advanced countries: low inflation US and Euro area below target inflation US policy still not ‘normal’. Will rates rise? Fed concerns. Worries over China, Brazil, Russia Quantitative easing: US taper, Abenomics in Japan, China devaluation

Advanced countries:low productivity growth. Worries about secular stagnation (Summers) Savings (Bernanke) Population growth/demographics Income inequality Post crisis effects Investment Demographics TFP slowdown Capital intensity/technology/price of capital goods

What kind of a world? Slow, sub par, growth Low and possibly volatile commodity prices Low inflation in advanced countries – inflation not the problem Low real interest rates The Zero Lower Bound and Macro prudential policies Confidence – but why should it revive? The policy framework

What has gone wrong? The effects of the financial crisis. Still fragile The automatic stabilisers + powerful policies – esp. in China Austerity (Toronto 2010) and the fiscal/monetary mix. Concentration on monetary policy. (No alternative in US: elsewhere, it is a choice) QE, asset prices and macro prudential policies Fiscal policy. Now is the time (IMF). Serious lack of policy instruments and commitment to growth affecting investment and confidence.