Economic and Real Estate Market Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Economic and Real Estate Market Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Delaware Association of REALTORS® April 11, 2017

Lifetime Wealth at All-Time High

Median Household Income (Inflation Adjusted)

Annual GDP … Below 3% for 11 straight years

Sluggish Business Spending Despite High Profit

Animal Spirit Revival? Small Business Optimism

Animal Spirit Revival? Consumer Confidence

Stock Market: S&P 500 Index

Jobs (8 million lost … 15 million gained) In thousands

Total Jobs in Delaware (9% growth vs 11% nationwide from 2000 ) In thousands

Non-farm Employment Growth By State

Recession over the Horizon?

Total Job Openings In thousands

Total Job Separations (Layoffs and Quits) In thousands

Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings In thousands

Auto Sales (Annualized Rate)

Migration Fear Index

Probability of Recession – one year out (NY Fed: based on interest rate spread)

Housing Market Turning?

Dollar Volume Growth Rate %

“Is it a good time to buy?” Renters’ Sentiment Changing

Is Owning still American Dream? Will you Buy in Future?

REALTOR Buyer Traffic Index (% change from a year ago)

Mortgage Purchase Applications (% change from a year ago)

Rent Growth (% change from a year ago)

Home Price Index: U.S. and DE

Home Price Index: U.S. and DE

Home Price Index – CO and PA

Serious Delinquency Rate U.S. All Mortgages

How’s the Commercial Real Estate Market?

Apartment % Source: CBRE via ULI

Office % Source: CBRE via ULI

Industrial-Warehouse % Source: CBRE via ULI

Retail % Source: CBRE via ULI

Why Industrial Outperforms?

Past Non-Store Retail Sales

Tom Barrack “Real Estate Market is Getting Bubblicious”

Commercial Property Price may be Bubblish (60% gain in 5 years) Source: Federal Reserve

Commercial Investment Sales of Large Properties (Properties valued at $2.5 million and over)

Forecast

Fed Rate Hike in December ‘15 in December ‘16 then 3 times again in ‘17? Also, unwinding of Fed Bond Purchases?

Economic Forecast 2015 2016 Likely 2017 Forecast 2018 GDP Growth 2.6% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +2.1 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.2%

Housing Forecast 2015 2016 Likely 2017 Forecast 2018 New Home Sales 500,000 570,000 620,000 700,000 Existing Home Sales 5.3 million 5.4 million 5.5 million 5.7 million Median Price Growth + 6.8% +5.3% 4.0% 3.2% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.4% 4.8%

Trump Presidency Dodd-Frank? Need Construction Workers … Community College Training Fannie/Freddie and Mortgage Availability? Tax Simplification? and Mortgage Interest Deduction and 1031 exchange Natural Disaster and Flood Insurance? EPA, land use, development fees?

Upcoming Research from Rosen Consulting Homeownership in Crisis Major Hurdles Facing Housing Market Dodd-Frank, mortgage availability, student debt, deteriorating affordability, zoning restrictions, construction costs Policies to Safely increase Homeownership Rate Alternative credit scores, GSEs, Lease-Purchase, financial counseling, building starter homes