DRM-SD: Risk and Disaster Defined DRM-SD Learning Lab Sabah Saigon Hotel, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam 05-07 January 2016 Prof. K. Koshy Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS) Universiti Sains Malaysia kanayathu.koshy@gmail.com Risk related definitions clarified

Triple Bottom Line Model - SD For development to be sustainable, issues of environment, society and the economy must be handled in an integrated way and the degree of healthy interaction is usually equated to the overall human well being that results; shown at the centre of this Venn dig. See also the Euler dig of SD – one inside the other.

Strong Sustainability Model - SD The Euler dig of SD – one inside the other. The ‘strong sustainability model’ advocates a hierarchical relation of the three spheres. In this model the circles are one inside the other with the environment (biosphere) outside. Society is seen as a subset of the biosphere and economy is merely a subsystem of human society. Without the biosphere, the other components do not exist (Diag). While this model provides a better sense of the relationships between the three components, it is seen as an ecologist’s vision of sustainability, which grossly underestimates social and economic innovation possibilities. Such innovations may well have the potential to reduce human impacts on the environment to what might just be within the planet’s carrying capacity. But this requires a radical change in conventional business goals, models and operations.

Risk-Disaster: Game 1 ferocious, dog, boy, school, afraid, bite, road, father, community leaders, dog owner, chain, weak, house, strong, situation, car, risk, friends, happy, pole… A boy goes to school passing a house where a ferocious dog is tied to a pole using a weak chain. If the dog brakes lose it could bite the boy. So the boy is very afraid. The boy’s father and some community leaders went and talked to the dog owner about the situation. They decided to use a stronger chain, to sent the boy to school with his friends, and use family car when possible. The dog hazard was addressed and the boys risk reduced and all were happy.

Risk-Disaster: Game 2 hazard, exposure unit, capacity, vulnerable, risk, impacts, disaster, coping, strategy, mitigation, great, minimise, adaptation, improved, happy… When a hazard impacts a vulnerable exposure unit, it is at great risk. If this risk is minimised through improved mitigation and adaptation strategies, our coping capacity improves and we could be happy or else disaster will follow.

Hazard Hazard: a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, environmental degradation or loss of life. Hazard: Potentially damaging event…

Impact Impact: the manifestation (realisation) of the destructive forces of hazards that destroy life and properties. Impact: the manifestation of the destructive forces

Exposure Units Exposure units: the sectors or groups that are impacted upon. - Stronger the coping capacity, weaker the impact - Exposure unit: the sectors or groups that are impacted

Capacity Capacity: a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster. Capacity: Strength and resources

Vulnerability Vulnerability: the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility (inability to withstand) of a community to the impact of hazards. (Antonym – Resilient) Vulnerability: susceptibility to the harmful impacts of hazards

Risk Risk: the probability (likely, ‘chance’) of harmful consequences, or expected losses/damage (injuries, property, livelihood, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged, deaths) resulting from interaction between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable exposure units. Risk – the probability of harmful consequences…

Disaster Disaster: “a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the capacity of exposure units to cope using only its own resources.” Disaster: serious disruption causing widespread loss and damage

Disaster is “Realised Risk” …Risk equations => The realised risk

Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Risk Management 2/3 ISDR Risk Equation: Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Capacity Realised Risk is Disaster In a general sense, the principles of risk management will come in very handy here. Risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability and to reduce risk we have to reduce both before the risk becomes a disaster.

Realised Risk is Disaster Risk Management 1/3 Hazard - Mitigation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster In a general sense, the principles of risk management will come in very handy here. Risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability and to reduce risk we have to reduce both before the risk becomes a disaster.

Risk Management 3/3 Realised Risk is Disaster Impact - Adaptation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster This is where both mitigation and adaptation feature.

Response Measures Mitigation: source ↓ & sink ↑ Adaptation: coping with consequences Our CC response, for e.g. should involve both mitigation (dealing with the root cause of the problem) and adaptation (adjusting to the impacts).

An integrated approach is needed as shown.

…the Risk that still remains after all response measures… Residual Risk …the Risk that still remains after all response measures… The realised risk

Adaptation x1 Frequency Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) drier Residual risk demonstration drier wetter Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

Adapted (autonomously) x1 Frequency contd drierr wetter Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

Adapted (autonomously) x2 Climate Change Adapted (explicitly) “Acceptable Risk” threshold x1 Frequency Adapted (autonomously) contd P2 P1 Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

Adapted to Climate Change x2 Adapted to Climate Change Adapted (explicitly) x1 Frequency Adapted (autonomously) contd P2 P1 Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

More on residual risk and the impact of CC on it

CC Adaptation – AR5, 2014 Adaptation potential, and limits

Two bridges are needed to close the vulnerability/risk gap Year Vulnerability/Risk ‘Business as usual’ Growth Required by sustainable development Technical solutions Technical bridge Ethical bridge We need two bridges to close the risk gap

Worried about eroding coastline – a Fiji village

SUMMARY of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA) HFA

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CGSS-USM neo DRM-SD model

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Thank You http://cgss.usm.my The day may be bleak – but there are always rainbows! Thanks http://cgss.usm.my

LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS Restaurant making profit Many new customers + Many returning customers Appealing surroundings and menu Good marketing strategy Restaurant not making profit Few new customers + Few returning customers Unappealing surroundings and menu Poor marketing strategy Cause - Effect Activities LFA Problem Tree Objective Tree

The Triple Bottom Line of SD For development to be sustainable, issues of environment, society and the economy must be handled in an integrated way and the degree of healthy interaction is usually equated to the overall human well being that results; shown at the centre of this Venn dig.

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