Dr Ousmane NDIAYE Civil aviation and Meteorology Agency (ANACIM)

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Presentation transcript:

Dr Ousmane NDIAYE Civil aviation and Meteorology Agency (ANACIM) Priorities for Climate Research in West Africa : outreaching farmers community. Dr Ousmane NDIAYE Civil aviation and Meteorology Agency (ANACIM) Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Predictions 16th session UK MetOffice, Exeter, 10-12 March 2014

STRONG CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS : EXAMPLE OF THE SAHEL “inter-annual” Short rainy season : 4 months Strong climate variability Huge socio-economical impacts : Health : malaria, meningitis Agriculture : rain fed and shepherd limited economic resources Sahel GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

EXTREME EVENTS IN OUAGADOUGOU, BURKINA-FASO One single event can change the whole season

FOOD SECURITY : rainfed agriculture Rainfall and crop yield of millet in Senegal 2011 is bad year for both rainfall and crop yield R²=0.68 RFE2 rainfall and FAO yield data From B. Sultan

NEED OF SEAMLESS FORECAST FROM SEASONAL TO SUB-SEASONAL TIME SCALES to plan farm activities. Before During the Crop season Maturity/end Seasonal forecast  varieties Onset forecast  farm preparation Nowcasting  flooding saving life (thunder) Daily forecast  use of fertilizer / pesticide Decade forecast  weeding, field work Decade forecast  optimum harvesting period

Challenges : detecting “false onset” True Start False Start Same period of onset but followed by dry spell which require : re-planting

Regional Climate Outlook Fora PRESANOR PRES-AO (16) GHACOF (31) PRES-AC (8) SARCOF (16) Updated from Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI

Testing the added value of climate with farmers in Kaffrine under CCAFS funded project

(Customize Climate information) Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting Local authority Pastoralism Seed Producers Local Pluri-disciplinary Working Group Farmers Local working Group (Customize Climate information) Agriculture Rural radio Extensions Forestery Community Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin

BUILDING TRUST FOR LONG TERM PARTNERSHIP LINKAGE TO INDIGENEOUS KNOWLEDGE Building on local knowledge:

“KNOWLEDGE SHOULD PRECEDE ACTION” Farmer in kaffrine team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

Learning from Kaffrine experience Sénégal Colombia South-South exchange Learning from Kaffrine experience