U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2007 Crop Season Review October 10, 2007 Morristown, TN, Wetland, September 12 Minnesota Drought, August 4 Fire Near San Jose, CA, September 3 Lake O. Record Low; 8.82 Feet on July 3 Photo Credits: Craig Dremann (CA), Rebecca Komppa (MN), and Brian Boyd (TN)

2007 Agricultural Weather Highlights 1) One of the year’s most significant events, the April freeze, was not drought related. 2) The combination of the Southeastern freeze and subsequent drought resulted in a regionally disastrous year for agriculture. 3) Meager winter snowfall, a hot spring and summer, and below-normal runoff increased Western water-supply concerns. 4) Generally wet weather on the Plains followed years of chronic drought.

Three Key Drought Areas 1) Southeast: Drought intensified and reached historic proportions in the wake of a severe early-April freeze. 2) The West: Water supplies dwindled in many basins due to a combination of factors, including sub-par winter snowfall, an unusually early melt season, and summer heat. 3) The Upper Great Lakes Region: Low water levels on Lake Superior were one manifestation of the drought. For a brief period in mid-summer, this drought area merged with the Southeastern drought.

DETERIORATION IMPROVEMENT

NCDC Climate Perspective March-August 2007, with temperatures averaging 2.05 degrees F above the 20th century mean across the Lower 48 states, was the third-warmest such period since 1895. Only 1934 and 2006 were warmer. March-August 2007, with precipitation averaging 15.40 inches (96 percent of the 1901-2000 mean), was the 37th-driest such period on record. However, state rankings ranged from record dryness in Tennessee and North Carolina to record wetness in Texas.

D4 D3 D2 D1 D0

The Good: Illinois Corn

The Mixed Bag: Indiana Corn

U.S. Corn: Up 6.7 Bushels/Acre U.S. yield rose from 149.1 bushels/acre in 2006 to 155.8 bushels/acre in 2007. Drought drove down yields (bushels/acre, compared to last year) by 57 in MD, 43 in NC, 40 in VA, 34 in MI, and 26 in KY. Favorable weather boosted yields (bushels/acre, compared to 2006) by 33 in OK, 27 in SD, 23 in TX, and 22 in NE.

The Bad: Alabama Cotton

U.S. Cotton: Down 3 Lbs/Acre U.S. yield fell from 814 pounds/acre in 2006 to 811 pounds/acre in 2007. Texas, which typically accounts for more than one-quarter of the U.S. production, enjoyed an increase from 679 to 715 pounds/acre from 2006 to 2007. Yield increases (lbs/acre) from last year were 183 in NM, 157 in OK, 124 in MS.

The Ugly: Southeastern Wheat -1 -9 -5 -10 -12 +1 +1 -3 -11 -4 -22 +4 -19 -23 -20 -19 -3 -15 -9 +13 +1 +15 X = Yield Change, Bushels/Acre (2007 Minus 2006)

-10 -22 -11 -19 -23 -19 -15 -20 -9

Winter Wheat: Up 0.5 Bu/Acre U.S. yield rose from 41.7 bushels/acre in 2006 to 42.2 bushels/acre in 2007. In the freeze-affected area, however, the yield fell from 61.8 to 46.2 bushels/acre. Using 2007 acreage harvested and the 2006 yield, nine freeze-affected states (AR, GA, IL, IN, KY, MO, NC, SC, and TN) lost 65.7 million bushels—or $276 million at last year’s (lower) price of $4.20/bushel.

Peach and Apple Losses In a 11-state area (SC, GA, IL, MO, NC, AR, AL, VA, TN, WV, and KY) there was a loss of 113,545 tons of peaches, with a value (2006 prices) of $99.3 million. In a 10-state area (NC, MO, OH, IL, IN, GA, TN, KY, IA, SC) there was a loss of 318.9 million pounds of apples, with a value (2006 prices) of $76.4 million.

Drought Monitor Rorschach Test: Is It Wilma Flintstone?