Stephan Bojinski WMO Space Programme WMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG São José dos Campos, Brazil, 15-19 October 2012 Stephan Bojinski WMO Space Programme

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Founded 1950, successor to IMO (1873) Specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences (e.g., atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, agriculture); UN “authoritative voice” 189 Member states and territories; “Permanent Representatives” Promote, foster, facilitate world-wide cooperation, with a focus on National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

WMO Programmes + Co-sponsored Programmes: GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, IPCC, …

WMO High-level Priorities 2012-2015 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Integration of observation and information systems (WIGOS/WIS) Disaster risk reduction Support to aviation Capacity building (from WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015)

WMO Space Programme Activities Observations: Requirements Mission/orbit plans Gap analyses Inter-Calibration Training & Awareness: Virtual Lab Regional projects www.wmo.int/sat Products: Sustainability Quality ISWGs SCOPE-CM SCOPE-NWC WIGOS GFCS Data Dissemination& Access: Timeliness, Standards, Tools

WMO (and related) Requirements for observations of precipitation Source: wmo.int/oscar Observing System Capabilities Analysis and Review Tool

Sat precipitation-related WMO Activities Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) – Regional Projects SCOPE-CM – climate data records SCOPE-Nowcasting – regional harmonization of nowcasting products Use of satellite precipitation estimates (WMO Survey 2012, 226 responses)

1. SWFDP (E.g.: Eastern Africa, Lake Victoria) SWFDP Main Goals: Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of Warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSAT products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion) Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji) Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries) Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

2. Flash Flood Guidance Systems in Regions Development and implementation of regional flash flood guidance (FFG) and early warning systems Regional development of technology, training, procedures to address the issues of mitigating the impacts of flash floods Adapted FFG system implemented in Central America, Black Sea region, Pakistan, Mekong basin FFG is an estimate of how much rainfall over a specified time in a small basin is needed to initiate flooding on small streams Example: 3-hour FFG = 50 mm, flooding should begin on small streams if that amount or more falls in a 3-hour period over the basin

2. Flash Flood Guidance: Schematic Source: Hydrologic Research Centre, Central America 10

3. SCOPE-CM: Sustained Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring Coordinated international network of space agencies (…) to produce Climate Data Records (ECV records) from multi-agency satellite data SCOPE-CM conducts projects to jointly elevate CDR generation capabilities to a higher maturity level, aiming at Sustained CDR production Increased knowledge, methodologies and capabilities Maximized benefit from investments through coordination and cooperation SCOPE-CM is connected with relevant stakeholders: WMO, GCOS, CEOS, GEO, CGMS/GSICS, WCRP/GEWEX, ESA (observer) Phase I (2008-2012) completed: Clouds/aerosols (AVHRR), TWV/LWP (SSM/I), Surface albedo (GEO), AMV, UTH → Call for proposals for new SCOPE-CM projects in January 2013 Invite IPWG to contribute project on precipitation climatology 11

4. SCOPE-Nowcasting (NWC) - Outline Sustained, Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-NWC) initiative Ensuring continuous, sustained provision of consistent satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction

4. SCOPE-Nowcasting (NWC) - Objectives Provide a mechanism through which satellite data/products can be made available simply and quickly Primarily for users in the NMHSs of smaller or developing nations, where expertise and facilities for processing and utilizing satellite data may be limited or non-existent Also for more advanced nations where there may be efficiencies possible through combining resources, expertise, and efforts

4. SCOPE-NWC: Concept of operations ! Establishing a collaborative network ! Among experts, user institutions and satellite operators ! To include IPWG, WWRP, SWFDP

4. SCOPE-NWC Pilot project outlines Category Product Region Provider User Gaps Basic nowcasting Imagery, RGB composites and enhancements, fog detection and cloud products WMO Region II (Asia) and Region V (SW Pacific) JMA, CMA, KMA (TBD) NMSs in Region II and V No standard products available; products limited Advanced nowcasting Ice cloud detection and turbulence to support aviation; potentially adding precipitation, fog Australia and adjacent Region II (Asia) and V (SW Pacific) CMA, JMA, KMA (TBD), NASA, NOAA (for precip) NMHSs in RA II and RA V No products currently available (except for precipitation) Blended satellite global precipitation product (GEO+LEO) Global coverage Hydro Estimator, NASA TRMM (3B42), NOAA (real-time MW) Civil authorities, NMHSs, Flash flood guidance systems, general users Rapid, facilitated access to quantitative precipitation estimates RT Ocean Products Near-Real-Time (3-hourly) Ocean surface winds for NWP Initially Indian Ocean IMD/ISRO (Oceansat-2) and EUMETSAT OSI-SAF NWP Centres, Marine Forecasters OSVW not fully exploited RT Atmospheric Composition products Dust Monitoring and Prediction Products WMO Region II (Asia) and V (South-West Pacific) CMA, JMA SDS-WDCs, NMSs (to issue results and warnings) in RA II and RA V Regional diversity of aerosol-related products not harmonized

4. SCOPE-NWC Pilot project outlines Category Product Region Provider User Gaps Basic nowcasting Imagery, RGB composites and enhancements, fog detection and cloud products WMO Region II (Asia) and Region V (SW Pacific) JMA, CMA, KMA (TBD) NMSs in Region II and V No standard products available; products limited Advanced nowcasting Ice cloud detection and turbulence to support aviation; potentially adding precipitation, fog Australia and adjacent Region II (Asia) and V (SW Pacific) CMA, JMA, KMA (TBD), NASA, NOAA (for precip) NMHSs in RA II and RA V No products currently available (except for precipitation) Blended satellite global precipitation product (GEO+LEO) Global coverage Hydro Estimator, NASA TRMM (3B42), NOAA (real-time MW) Civil authorities, NMHSs, Flash flood guidance systems, general users Rapid, facilitated access to quantitative precipitation estimates RT Ocean Products Near-Real-Time (3-hourly) Ocean surface winds for NWP Initially Indian Ocean IMD/ISRO (Oceansat-2) and EUMETSAT OSI-SAF NWP Centres, Marine Forecasters OSVW not fully exploited RT Atmospheric Composition products Dust Monitoring and Prediction Products WMO Region II (Asia) and V (South-West Pacific) CMA, JMA SDS-WDCs, NMSs (to issue results and warnings) in RA II and RA V Regional diversity of aerosol-related products not harmonized

Summary I: General WMO recommendations to IPWG Evaluate and assess methods and datasets Harmonize quality assessment and verification Develop best practices and access/interface tools Assist in integration and interoperability of rainfall estimates from different sources Many WMO application areas require satellite precipitation estimates: weather, hydrology, climate, cryosphere, ocean, … Develop concise high-level recommendations (<5) to WMO/CGMS

Summary II WMO emphasizes its support to IPWG Encourages IPWG to Discuss scientific state-of-the-art Take action to leverage research for operations IPWG encouraged to contribute to SCOPE-CM IPWG encouraged to contribute to SCOPE-NWC

Thank you!

From Global to Regional to Local Computational Core Global/Regional Observations & ATM Model Forecasts Adjustments and Warning Core Computational Component Local Products & Uncertainty Local Data Regional Centers (Hydromet expertise) Local or Country Warning Generation System (e.g., WFO or NMHS) Local or Country Warning Dissemination System 1. Decisions are made with multiple datasets and under uncertainty 2. There is a need to modify the products of the global/regional system locally and have capability for estimating consequences to local variables of interest Public Warnings

WMO Space Programme Activities Observations: Requirements Mission/orbit plans Gap analyses Inter-Calibration In support of: Weather Climate Water Disaster Risk Reduction Hydrology Cryosphere Space Weather Training & Awareness: Virtual Lab Regional projects www.wmo.int/sat Products: Sustainability Quality SCOPE-CM SCOPE-NWC WIGOS GFCS Data Dissemination& Access: Timeliness, Standards, Tools

SCOPE-NWC Products Products need to be consistent across platforms and use standard formats Useful in the forecasting range zero to six hours where, in the case of NWP, current model forecasting capability is limited. Four broad categories of SCOPE-NWC products Basic (Atmospheric) Nowcasting Products: these are primarily products used qualitatively, such as visible and infrared imagery, RGB composites and enhancements, fog detection and cloud products; Advanced (Atmospheric) Nowcasting Products: these include quantitative products requiring the application of algorithms for their generation; products such as precipitation, atmospheric motion vectors, stability indices, total precipitable water, convective initiation and sounding products, and other products to support aviation such as turbulence or aircraft icing potential; Realtime Ocean Products: these include scatterometer data for sea surface winds and sea state data from altimetry; and Realtime Atmospheric Composition Products: these include fire detection, smoke, sand and dust, aerosols and volcanic ash