Mega trends Population – demographic change Geopolitical shifts Financial systems Globalisation Urbanisation Technology Richard Dobbs et al. No Ordinary Disruption: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people. McKinsey Global Institute

Innovation to preserve H1 ‘Radical’ technology to achieve H3

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Expectations Peak of inflated expectations Plateau of productivity Slope of enlightenment Trough of disillusionment Early stage excitement Time The Gartner Hype Cycle

Why I’m breaking up with sustainability Tara Holmes, storyteller So while the sustainability movement can take pride in shifting the dialogue a decade ago and building awareness, it’s resiliency, adaptation and design thinking that’s the name of the game today. Until we get off an economy requiring growth, every good effort will be marginal. Economic growth for whom? Convergence

Radical Technology Another class of scenarios implicitly aims to blast through sustainability problems with unfettered innovation and the principle of ‘smart growth’. This is a greener version of Business As Usual, aiming to apply the best new technologies, and allowing adaptation to any problems that might occur. Lifestyle changes arise as they do now, driven by new technical possibilities.

Three interlocking social factors account for the decline in the rate of the global population growth. 1, economic growth, globalization of industry due to science and technology 2, implosion of rural populations into cities -- 50% of the world’s pop are urban 3, “the empowerment of women.”

The bottleneck is what I believe humanity’s in right now The bottleneck is what I believe humanity’s in right now. We all, or most all, realize that humanity has pushed its population growth pretty close to the limit. We really are at risk of using up natural resources and developing shortages in them that will be extremely difficult to overcome, and yet we have this bright prospect down the line that humanity is not going to keep on growing much more in population, that it is likely, if we can use the United Nation’s projections at this stage, to top out at perhaps nine to ten billion, fifty percent more people than exist today, and then begin to decline. a demographic transition. High birth, high death – High birth, low death – low birth, low death