Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia Karina Razali, Hla Hla Thein, Jane Bell, Mark Cooper-Stanbury, Kate Dolan, Greg Dore, Jacob George, John Kaldor, Maria Karvelas, Jiong Li, Lisa Maher, Sharyn McGregor, Margaret Hellard, Fiona Poeder, Julianne Quaine, Kim Stewart, Helen Tyrrell, Martin Weltman, Owen Westcott, Alex Wodak, Matthew Law Drug & Alcohol Dependence Volume 91, Issue 2, Pages 228-235 (December 2007) DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026 Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions

Fig. 1 Model states for HCV infection stages. Drug & Alcohol Dependence 2007 91, 228-235DOI: (10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026) Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions

Fig. 2 Indicators of the change in the number of IDUs and injecting trends. (a) National drug strategy household survey: numbers of people reporting injecting in previous 12 months; (b) Opioid overdose deaths, hospitalizations and ambulatory responses; (c) Australian crime commission: total numbers of drug-related arrests in Australia; (d) total HCV notifications in people aged 15–24 years, Australia; and (e) needle and syringe programs: total needle and syringe units distributed in Australia. Drug & Alcohol Dependence 2007 91, 228-235DOI: (10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026) Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions

Fig. 3 Estimates of regular injecting drug users, 1970–2005. Shaded area denotes upper and lower range. Drug & Alcohol Dependence 2007 91, 228-235DOI: (10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026) Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions

Fig. 4 Estimates of HCV incidence, by exposure category, 1960–2005. Drug & Alcohol Dependence 2007 91, 228-235DOI: (10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026) Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions

Fig. 5 Estimated number of people living with HCV antibodies, by stage of disease, 1960–2005. Drug & Alcohol Dependence 2007 91, 228-235DOI: (10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2007.05.026) Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd Terms and Conditions