Space-based Observation of Space Weather in the WMO Vision for WIGOS 2040 Jérôme Lafeuille (WMO Secretariat) CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Outline Four-year plan for space weather Overview of «operational» space weather observations from space Space weather in the draft vision for 2040 Recommendations to CGMS CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

17th Congress about space weather (2015) WMO should undertake international coordination of operational space weather monitoring and forecasting with a view to support the protection of life, property and critical infrastructures and the impacted economic activities. Integrative approach: space weather observations into WIGOS data sharing and management within WIS data processing within the GDPFS Decision-support services within “service delivery” and DRR Adopted Res. 38: Four-year plan for WMO coordination of space weather activities, submitted to EC-68 for approval CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Four-year plan in support of international coordination of operational space weather monitoring and forecasting Coordination/communication/advocacy Partnership (ISES, ICAO, ITU, ICSU, OOSA,..) Strategic level User requirements for product and services Develop best practices in key areas: aviation, public safety, infrastructures Training, capacity building Products & services Observations (space and ground) Data exchange Analysis and forecasting Systems level

High-level coordination of ground- and space-based space weather observations in the 4-year plan to ensure sustained availability, quality and interoperability of the observations that are essential for warning and other services to optimize the overall cost of the observing system through integration of space weather observing systems as component systems of WIGOS: review observations requirements (from space or surface) analyse priorities and monitor plans to fill the gaps dialogue with major space agencies and CGMS… harmonize sensor specifications and develop best practices for sensor intercalibration (energetic particles)

Review of observation needs and capabilities Initial requirements available in OSCAR/Requirements Addresses observing needs for forecasts, warnings, alerts, event climatology, model validation Observation capabilities in OSCAR/Surface, OSCAR/Space “Statement of Guidance” identifying gaps and priorities in observations to meet these requirements (being updated) Solar monitoring Solar wind and energetic particles Geomagnetic field Ionosphere and thermosphere Basis for defining actions («Implementation Plan») http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/applicationareas/view/25

Outline Four-year plan for space weather Overview of «operational» space weather observations from space Space weather in the draft vision for 2040 Recommendations to CGMS CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Space-based operational observations of space weather Overview Key operational observations from space include: solar and heliospheric imaging, solar radiation monitoring, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements magnetospheric particles and geomagnetic field ionospheric monitoring by radio-occultation. A number of additional observations are made for research purpose or for platform house keeping requirements CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

A snapshot of current/planned system Solar disc monitoring SOHO, Stereo A/B >> design life GOES series, supplemented by Electro-l2 and FY-3E (2018) Interplanetary observations WIND, SOHO, ACE, and DSCOVR (Summer 2016) Plans under discussion (NOAA, ESA, CMA?) Need coordinated plan to ensure continuity & robustness for solar wind, heliospheric imagery and corona Ionospheric observation Radio-occultation (if scanning 60-100 km) Plans to renew and expand the constellation (to be confirmed) Stringent timeliness requirements CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Outline Four-year plan for space weather Overview of «operational» space weather observations from space Space weather in the draft vision for 2040 Recommendations to CGMS CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

In the New Vision for Space-based Observation in 2040 (in progress) Solar coronagraph and radio-spectrograph, at L1 In situ plasma, energetic particles, magnetic field (at L1 in solar wind, and GEO) In situ plasma, energetic particles at LEO GNSS radio-occultation for temperature, humidity and electron density Compo- nent I, Operational fixed Solar EUV/X-ray imager, magnetograph, EUV/X-ray irradiance, on the Earth-Sun line (e.g. L1, GEO) and off the Earth-Sun line (e.g. L5, L4) Solar coronagraph and heliospheric imager off the Earth-Sun line (e.g. L4, L5) Solar wind plasma, energetic particles & magnetic field off Earth-Sun line (e.g. L5) Magnetospheric energetic particles (e.g. GEO, HEO, MEO, LEO) Compo- nent II, Operational flexible Solar coronal magnetic field imager, solar wind beyond L1 Ionosphere/thermosphere spectral imager (e.g. GEO, HEO, MEO, LEO) Ionospheric electron and major ion density, Thermospheric neutral density and constituents Additional RO constellation for enhanced atmospheric/ionospheric soundings including use of optimized frequencies Compo- nent III, Pathfinders technology demo CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

The missing link for an operational system… Policy Users Warning forecasts Ground observation Space-based observation Science & product development COSPAR IAU ICAO IAGM ITU URSI DRR managers ISES WMO Spacecraft op Power grid ? WMO ISES WMO INTERMAGNET, ISWI, WMO

CGMS could play a unique role CGMS recognizes and responds to WMO requirements through a longstanding and successful partnership CGMS involves most if not all operators of space weather payload used in operations • The needed coordination of observational assets and plans to ensure interoperability and continuity of space weather observations is a unique strength of CGMS Decade-long experience of hosting space weather instruments on meteorological space craft • Experience in GSICS, SCOPE, Vlab, can either expand or inspire similar initiatives for space weather

Conclusions The 4-year plan submitted to EC-68 next week foresees integration of space weather observations into WIGOS and dialogue with CGMS «to fill the gaps in space weather observations» Actions are in progress: on requirements analysis, review of gaps and priorities, assessment of space weather sensors in OSCAR/Space Space weather is addressed in the draft Vision of space-based observation in 2040 CGMS viewed as privileged forum to coordinate operational space-based observations from space CGMS SW TT is invited to provide feedback on the Vision for 2040 and possible CGMS actions to fill the gaps.

Thank you for your attention CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) Established in May, 2010 Joint leadership: Commission for Basic Systems & Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology United States Canada Brazil United Kingdom Finland Germany Belgium Ethiopia China Korea Russian Federation South Africa Switzerland Pakistan Italy Sweden Poland France Thailand Norway Ukraine Japan Australia Spain Mexico Argentina 26 out of 185 WMO Member States 7 International Organizations CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Ten countries now contribute space weather products on the portal WMO Space Weather Product Portal Ten countries now contribute space weather products on the portal • Enhance awareness of available products • Demonstrates operational availability • Encourage global participation in space weather service delivery • Facilitate intercomparison and coordination of products • Training under development for new users http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Service Level Activities • Organize WMO Members to deliver coordinated services responding to ICAO requirements • Prepare for extreme events in a multi-hazard Disaster Risk Reduction approach • Analyze requirements for applications including ionospheric disturbances (radio propagation and GNSS), satellites, and ground infrastructure (power grids) • Provide training on delivery and use of services CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Strategic Level Activities • Build on: - Partnership with service providers (ISES) - Observations providers (e.g., INTERMAGNET, CGMS) - Scientific organizations (e.g., COSPAR) - User organizations (e.g., ICAO and ITU) - Capacity building initiatives (e.g., ISWI) - Overall UN space policy framework (COPUOS) • Emphasize synergy with core WMO activities • Support involvement of additional WMO Members • Focus on achievable priority objectives for 2016-2019 • Pave the way for long-term sustained activity CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016

Actions presented to CGMS-40 in 2012 (WMO-WP-03) (1/2) will be revisited once the SOG and Vision are updated To develop and implement a coordinated plan ensuring continuity of solar measurements, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements, and heliospheric imaging, including measurements at different locations such as at the L1 Lagrange point, the Sun-Earth line upstream from the L1 point, the L5 Lagrange point, as well as the required global network of ground-based antennas for data reception and processing. Develop a plan for maintaining and improving space weather observations of the plasma and energetic particle environment along the following priorities: (1) maintain long-term continuity, and if possible improve the spatial resolution of measurements at all altitudes from LEO through GEO orbits; (2) improve the sharing of existing and planned plasma and energetic particle measurements; (3) include energetic particle sensors on HEO satellites; and (4) conduct research to incorporate the plasma and energetic particle data into numerical models to give flux estimates at all locations where our satellites are in orbit. To be updated

Actions presented to CGMS-40 in 2012 (WMO-WP-03) (2/2) To improve the timeliness of space-based GNSS measurements from LEO satellites to get near-real-time information about the 3D electron density distribution of the ionosphere/plasmasphere system. (e.g. by use of a RARS/DBNet concept or other network of satellite ground stations for rapid transmission). To foster sharing of ground-based GNSS data and GNSS Radio-Occultation among the meteorological and space weather communities, and to facilitate the near-real-time access to these data through WIS. To coordinate the use of dual-frequency radar altimeter observations by Space Weather community to improve or validate ionospheric models and for operational TEC monitoring over the oceans. To be updated

Space-based observation capabilities in OSCAR OSCAR/Space (www.wmo.int/oscar/space) is being upgraded Online inventory of space-based observing capabilities Includes ≈ 300 space weather instruments Records instrument availability and derived measurements, to support gap analyses New version: expert system to analyze instrument specifications and evaluate the derived measurements mature knowledge basis for Earth Observation instruments space weather part is still at an early stage currently in beta-testing phase potential for collaborative development

Outline Four-year plan for space weather Overview of «operational» space weather observations from space Space weather in the draft vision for 2040 Recommendations to CGMS CGMS-44 SW Task Team, 5 June 2016