Estimates of Current and Future Incidence and Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation in the U.S. Adult Population Susan Colilla, PhD, MPH, Ann Crow, MLS,

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Date of download: 7/10/2016 Copyright © 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. From: Prevalence of Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation in Adults:

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Estimates of Current and Future Incidence and Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation in the U.S. Adult Population Susan Colilla, PhD, MPH, Ann Crow, MLS, William Petkun, MD, Daniel E. Singer, MD, Teresa Simon, MPH, Xianchen Liu, MD, PhD American Journal of Cardiology Volume 112, Issue 8, Pages 1142-1147 (October 2013) DOI: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063 Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Age- and gender-adjusted AF incidence curves derived from observed AF incidence rates (actuals represented by red line and diamonds) from the Miyasaka et al2 study point estimates (1990 and 1994) and i3 data analysis estimates (2001 to 2007) under 3 scenarios: (1) no increase in AF incidence rate after 2007 (green dashed line), (2) logarithmic growth in incidence rate after 2007 (purple solid line), and (3) linear trend of incidence growth rate after 2007 (blue dotted line). American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Projected prevalence of diagnosed AF cases in United States from 2001 to 2030, assuming (1) assuming no increase in incidence rate after 2007 (green solid line) and (2) a logarithmic growth in AF incidence (purple line with circles). American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Sensitivity analysis around each input parameter used in the NHM on the projected AF prevalence in 2030. Lower bound of incidence rate assumes no additional growth; upper bound assumes continued linear growth based on data observed in this study (Figure 1). Lower and upper bounds of recurrence rates from Lubitz et al.9 Lower and upper bounds of other cause mortality were 82.5% to 96.3%. Excess mortality due to stroke in recurrent AF was 16.5% to 66%. Low and high variants for 2030 population projections were from UN Population Division estimates.10 American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Probabilistic range of uncertainty around the projected AF prevalence estimate for sensitivity analysis by simultaneously varying all the input parameters used in model. The probabilistic range of AF prevalence estimates is represented by the upper 10% likelihood (blue dashed line) and the lower 10% likelihood estimate (green dotted line) around the base AF prevalence estimate with logarithmic incidence growth rate projection (purple solid line). American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Supplementary Figure 1 Flow diagram of natural history model for AF American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions

Supplementary Figure 2 Solid linear regression lines of cross-sectional AF prevalence from i3/Ingenix health claims study (2001–2007) are consistent with the Kaiser Permanente study1 estimates (1997 data points). I3 study estimates are represented in chart between 2001–2007. Note: Cross-sectional prevalence rates for year 2003 were outliers and therefore were removed. American Journal of Cardiology 2013 112, 1142-1147DOI: (10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.05.063) Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. Terms and Conditions