From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China

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Presentation transcript:

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: t = 0 is the first year in which the GDP p.c. relative to the United States is larger or equal to that of China in 2007 (15%). The data is from Penn World Tables 9.0. The construction of the figure follows the approach in Aiyar et al. (2013). From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The dark gray color indicates the development stage in which the economy can grow fast through investment-led growth; the gray color indicates the development stage in which the economy necessitates to switch to innovation-led growth. The black color indicates the prereform period. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The left panel shows the case of an economy that does not maximize growth at an earlier stage of development because of the lack of support to insider firms. The right panel shows the case of an economy that does not maximize growth at a later stage of development because of anticompetitive policies, and gets stuck in a middle-income trap (a<sup>trap</sup> ). From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The figure shows the prediction of the theory for the growth rates of two economies that, because of different policy regimes, follow an investment-led (black) and an innovation-led (gray) growth strategy, respectively. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The upper panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting a group fixed effect for sub-Saharan African countries, broken down by above- and below-median barriers. The lower panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting country fixed effects, broken down by above- and below-median barriers. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The upper panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting a group fixed effect for sub-Saharan African countries, broken down by above- and below-median corruption. The lower panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting country fixed effects, broken down by above- and below-median corruption. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The upper panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting a group fixed effect for sub-Saharan African countries, broken down by above- and below-median R&D intensity. The lower panel shows the correlation between growth and proximity to frontier after subtracting country fixed effects, broken down by above- and below-median R&D intensity. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The figure shows the evolution of R&D expenditure in % of GDP for selected countries. The data is from the World Bank World Development Indicators (2016). From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The left panel shows the predicted probability that firms engage in innovation as a function of their proximity to the frontier in the model of König et al. (2016). The right panel shows the predicted probability that firms engage in innovation as a function of their proximity to the frontier in the model with distortions that affect firms’ decisions to imitate versus innovate. From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The left panel shows the average TFP growth rate in the period 2001–2007 for Chinese firms doing R&D (gray) and not doing R&D (black) in 2001 at different percentiles of the TFP distribution in 2001. The right panel shows the average TFP growth rate in the period 2007–2012 for Chinese firms doing (gray) and not doing R&D in 2007 at different percentiles of the TFP distribution in 2007. The data are from König et al. (2017). From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Note: The upper (lower) panel shows the TFP distribution in 2001 (2007) for Chinese firms doing R&D (gray) and not doing R&D (black). The data are from König et al. (2017). From: Growing and Slowing Down Like China Journal of the European Economic Association. 2017;15(5):943-988. doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx018 Journal of the European Economic Association | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com