Negative emissions – potential social impacts

Starting point We need negative emissions to prevent dangerous climate change Without NETs need global peak by 2014 and 4% pa reduction after For future generations, no NETs = significant negative impacts But rapid mitigation also needed

BECCS Competition for land (food/biodiversity) Food yields under threat (ozone, fisheries, water, soil, acidification, extreme weather, heat days) Growing population, meat demand, biofuels further stresses situation Biomass for NETs will add to strain Localised air pollution Cost Ozone (yield loss by 2030 of 20% of soy, 25% of wheat?) Fisheries (50% collapsed or overfished already?) Water – 40% decline of cereal in China? Soil, ocean acidification, extreme weather, etc

Food prices and conflict Source: New England Complex Systems (2011 ) Economics of food prices and crisis

Enhanced soil & biomass sinks Potential win-win better soil management and agriculture (but potentially short-term yield impacts) Wetland restoration brings biodiversity & flood alleviation benefits (but opposition from some) Afforestation – potential for ‘degraded lands’ but questions of ownership / biodiversity impact Timber in buildings, etc but sources important

Olivine to soil Potential run-off impacts – biodiversity and fisheries impacts Local benefits for some acidic soils Sourcing, grinding and transportation impacts Possible local metal contamination over time

Ocean liming Potential benefits around coral systems, important for hundreds of millions of people Sourcing and transportation impacts, energy intensive

Ocean fertilisation Impact on useful fisheries productivity even if total productivity enhanced

Air capture Energy requirements Safe storage sites CCS site locations will be challenged Visual impacts, local air pollution Enhanced oil recovery Cost

Scale, costs and TRL assessment

Conclusions NETs bring costs to current and near-term generations above mitigation in many cases (distribution of costs is important) Localised impacts will face opposition Competition for land a major hurdle (food, land tenure) Enhanced biomass and soil sinks are no-brainers Air capture & ocean liming brings scale Ocean fertilisation & olive to soil will be resisted Offsets will increase opposition