Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany Mark Nowakowski Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

Germany‘s central environment agency since 1974 (1500 emp.) Scientific support to the Federal Government Execution of environmental laws (e.g. emission trading scheme, certification of chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pesticides) Information of the public on environment protection issues

Energy and climate targets of Germany Renewable Energy Efficiency GHG (vs. 1990) Electricpower Total share Primary energy Energy productivity Modernising buildings 2020 – 40 % 35% 18% – 20% increase to 2,1% / a double rate 1% -> 2% 2030 – 55 % 50% 30% 2040 – 70 % 65% 45% 2050 60% – 50% – 80-95 % 80% Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Development of Germany‘s electricity production from RES since 1990 Source: BMU

Germany: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society? - 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050 Emissionen in Mio.t CO 2Äq Waste LULUCF Agriculture Industrial processes, solvents and other product applications Transport Energy (excluding transport) 106 t CO2eq – 95% Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

UBA: Three “archetypal” scenarios “Local Energy Autarky” (2013): Small-scale decentralized energy systems use locally available RE sources No grid connection to outside “Regions Network” (2010): German regions use their RE potentials extensively Electricity exchange throughout Germany Only small share of power imports from neighbouring countries “International Large Scale” (2013, under progress): Germany‘s and Europe‘s electricity supply is based on all RE potentials in Germany, Europe and its vicinity which can readily be tapped by large-scale technology projects High import share via a well-developed intercontinental transmission grid “Regions Network” (2010) “Local Energy Autarky” (2013) “International Large Scale” (2014) Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

UBA sceanrios are part of a solution space.

Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Our central question: Can a 100% RE System cover Germany‘s complete electricity demand AND the annual peak load? Security of supply on today‘s level? Not an economic equilibrium model, Total electricity demand: 506, Peak load: 81,5GW + 7,5 GW balancing power Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

“Regions Network” scenario (UBA, 2010) (Download from www.uba.de) Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 9

Properties “Regions Network” All regions in Germany make extensive use of their RE potentials Well-developed national electricity transmission grid Efficient energy use, storage and demand side management Today‘s lifestyle, consumer and behaviour patterns, no technology leaps Germany remains a highly developed industrialized country High level supply security Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

RES potentials and utilization level Technical-ecological potential (conservative estimate) Region´s network scenario Capacity (GW) Output (TWh) Photovoltaic 275 240 120 104 Wind energy onshore 60 170 Wind energy offshore 45 180 177 Hydropower 5,2 24 22 Geothermal energy 6,4 50 Waste biomass (biogas) as required 23 23,3 11 Today: 32 GWel Today: 35 GWel Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society “Regions Network” 2050 Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Model structure “Regions Network”

RE feed-in and load – summer month Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

RE feed-in and load – winter month Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

RE feed-in and load – winter month Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Results “Regions Network” 100% RE electricity generation is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050 without questioning Germany‘s existance as a highly developed industrialized country. PV, wind, grid, storage are essential parts of our 100% EE power system. Achievable with today’s best available technologies, no technology leaps RE potentials can even supply e-mob as well as heating and hot water via heat pumps. Supply security is ensured all year round. Fluctuations of RE and load can be balanced out at any time Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

“Local Energy Autarky” scenario (UBA, 2013) (Download from www.uba.de) Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 18

Properties “Local Energy Autarky” Basic presumptions as in “Regions Network” Decentralized, local supply WITHOUT connections with other regions or with outside suppliers (i.e. “energy islands”) Simulation of different settlement structures: rural community and town district Each with and without trade/industry At exemplary locations in northern and in southern Germany Higher energy efficiency than in “Regions Network” Higher utilisation of RES potentials than in “Regions Network”, esp. PV Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Results “Local Energy Autarky” Local energy autarky or “island solutions” is no feasible option for all Germany. Without a transmission grid areas with low RES potentials lose out. No sufficient RE based power supply for cities Also, rural communities with trade/industry fail to be self-sufficient. A transmission grid is important and beneficial in a 100% RE system. BUT: Local energy autarky may be a promising option for low population areas with little or no transmission grids available and high RES potentials. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

“International Large Scale” scenario Source: J. Lillestam, PIK Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

“International Large Scale” Meta analysis of existing studies with a High RE electricity import share into Germany/Europe Use of those RE potentials in Germany, Europe and its vicinity which can readily be tapped by large-scale technology projects and storage power plants („low-hanging fruit“) A well-developed intercontinental transmission grid connects generation centers with centers of electricity consumption. Pan-European electricity network helps to balance out fluctuating RE generation and reduces storage demand. But: higher technical, financial and political-administrative complexity of developing cross-border infrastructure and power plants abroad

Conclusions from UBA scenarios 100% RES power supply is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050. Different approaches possible Corresponding support schemes are necessary Well-developed electricity network appears to be beneficial. Expansion of reserve power capacity, application of load management, development of infrastructure for transport and long-term storage of electricity are necessary prerequisites for 100% RES system Conjoint, well-coordinated action needed in Europe Foster general public acceptance

Elements of a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society Electricity Agriculture Heating Waste Transport LULUCF Industry

Germany 2050: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society - 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050 Emissionen in Mio.t CO 2Äq Waste LULUCF Agriculture Industrial processes, solvents and other product applications Transport Energy (excluding transport) 106 t CO2eq – 95% Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Power to Gas: Chemical Storage as Renewable Methane Sector coupling through link between power grid and natural gas grid : 4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O [Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009] Generation → Electrolysis (H2) → Methanation (CH4) → Reconversion η = 1 x 0,7 x 0,8 x 0,59 = 33%

Energy flow in the scenario “UBA THGND 2050”

Mark Nowakowski mark.nowakowski@uba.de www.uba.de Thank you for your attention ! Ευχαριστώ πολύ για την προσοχή σας . Mark Nowakowski mark.nowakowski@uba.de www.uba.de

Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany Mark Nowakowski Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Electricity Storage in 2050 (as in “Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply“) Can a 100% renewable electricity system satisfy total electricity and load demand at any hour of the year? Yes! In total: generation of excess supply, but also times of shortages Short-term storage: Pump storage: daily/several days range [Germany: 60 GWh capacity potential] Load management (all sectors) Long-term storage: Chemical storages: weeks/months/years range renewable hydrogen storage (η=42%) renewable methane storage (η=35%) Re-generation in combined cycle power plants or other use (e.g. as fuel) Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Results “Regions Network” Supply security and electricity all-season! Positive residual load (generation deficit): reconversion, imports, bio-methane Power Negative residual load (excess generation): pump storage, electrolysis Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Results “Local Energy Autarky” City district in northern Germany: Load of private houses, 50% e-mobility, Balances after fluctuating feed-in and storage, Storage activity (meteorological data 2006–2009) Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society