Public Opinion Views that people hold on public issues Influences the political process and affects government actions

What is public opinion and public policy? Questions What is public opinion and public policy? How is public opinion formed? How does media affect public opinion? How is public opinion measured?

1. What is Public Opinion & Public Policy? Public Opinion: Ideas, attitudes, and views that people share regarding issues, public officials, and government Public Policy: choices the government makes and the actions it takes in response to an issue or problem

1. What is Public Opinion? Public Opinion can be formed by important political leaders Example: 2001 - US attacked by terrorists http://amhistory.si.edu/militaryhistory/exhibition/flash.html 2001 – War in Afghanistan (fight Taliban) http://www.pollingreport.com/afghan.htm 2002-2003 – President George W. Bush stated that intelligence reports indicated that Saddam Hussein (Iraq) had weapons of mass destruction. 2003 – War in Iraq 2006 – Public Opinion about Iraq war became negative and influenced Congressional elections (Questioned Weapons of Mass Destruction as reason for war, never found & Length of War) Public Opinion can influence and form public policy Pedestrians and children are unsafe due to drivers speeding Result = speed bumps

What is Public Opinion? Gun Control (individual rights/safety) – opinion is divided on whether we need more legislation for safety or if the government should respond to recent shootings with restrictions Pew Research – http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/05/5-facts-about-guns-in-the-united-states/

2. How is Public Opinion Formed? Political Association: the process by which people acquire political beliefs Family: Family attitudes regarding race, religion, politics, and other issues shape our opinion. School & Work Peer groups, teachers, and co-workers Personal Factors: Age, Race, Gender, Religion: Young people may not see the same value of Social Security as an older person.

2. How is Public Opinion Formed?

3. How does the MEDIA affect public opinion? Mass Media – means of communication that provide information to a large audience (Internet, Radio, TV, News, Magazines, latest viral video on the Internet) Impact of Media Monitors, Shapes, and Determines public agenda Reports issues that political leaders and the public consider important.

3. How does the MEDIA affect public opinion? Vietnam War (“television war”): Nightly newscasts brought the war into American’s living room and transformed public opinion. Did the media shape American public opinion regarding the Vietnam War or was the media simply reflecting opinions that already existed? War Correspondents in Vietnam http://www.thinkport.org/special-collections-vietnam-m7.html Walter Cronkite’s Broadcast from Feb. 27, 1968 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn4w-ud-TyE Media Images and Opinions in War http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/24/opinions/deleon-vietnam-war-effects/ http://academics.wellesley.edu/Polisci/wj/Vietnam/ThreeImages/brady2.html Vietnam Anti-war Protests Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVNUlOUlMeo

Expressing Public Opinion Demonstrations – Vietnam Protests, Civil Rights Protests Interst Groups – Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), NRA, American Medical Association Voting – choose candidates in local, state, and federal elections who will make government policies that reflect your opinion

Media Criticism Bias in reporting – Fox news vs. Cnn news Media Spectrum: Polarization of Media: http://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/ Fake News: http://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/how-to-spot-fake-news/ Bias in story selection – media has to decide what issues to focus on and what to ignore Factual Inaccuracy - blogs and other non-traditional sources may be careless about their facts Propaganda – statements meant to influence public opinion or promote a cause or viewpoint

Media Influence on People, Public Policy, Government Media Giants: About 2 dozen companies own most US media outlets http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/cool/giants/ Will this media consolidation affect public opinion or limit access to a variety viewpoints? Why or Why not? What is the meaning and importance of a free and responsible press to our society?

4. How is Public Opinion Measured? (Public) Opinion Poll – a survey of people scientifically selected to provide opinions about something Determines public attitudes about products, social issues, political candidates . . . It is done by asking questions of a random sample of people and using their answers to represent the views of the broader population.

4. How is Public Opinion Measured? Sample – group of people who take part in the poll About 1,500 people is sufficient to reflect the opinions of 230 million people Sample must be random Poll – accurate poll results depend on the way questions are worded and the order in which they are asked. Questions must be worded and ordered to avoid influence on responses. “Do you think the president is doing a good job?” “Is your overall opinion of the president very favorable or very unfavorable?” Asking these questions after asking about controversial issues can influence responses.

Sampling Error 3. Margin of Error (sampling error)– expressed in % points, is a measure of a poll’s accuracy; it gives the range within which the poll’s results may vary from the true value in the entire population - 3% margin of error - Survey: 37% people feel cookies are better than cake - This means 34% – 40% of the total population feels cookies are better than cake Calculate Sample Size - https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/

Measuring Public Opinion – Origins & Error Pros and Cons of public opinion polls video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubR8rEgSZSU Gallup Origins: http://www.ushistory.org/gov/4c.asp “Dewey Defeats Truman” 1948 Election reflected error and the drawback of polls http://www.deweydefeatstruman.com/ http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-chicagodays-deweydefeats-story,0,6484067.story