Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Seasonal Climate Cycles Seasonal Climate Cycles Sea level pressure.

Advertisements

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2008 For.

Dongqian Wang Bing Zhou Chenghu Sun The features of EAWM 2012/13 and possible influencing factors Beijing Climate Center

Class #16 Monday, October 4, 2010 Class #16: Monday, October 4 Chapter 8 Oceanography and El Niño/La Niña/ENSO 1.

Matt Masek NWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte, NE May 25, 2011.

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Winter Outlook ( ) Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI / Oregon Chapter of the AMS 29 October 2011 Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI.

CPC Monthly Climate Review Feb 2014 Jin Huang Outline: 1.Global Patterns 2.Extremes and US anomalies 3.DJF Climate Attributions 4.Forecast Verifications.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 November 2012.

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Vernon E. Kousky and R. Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 2004.

Weather Discussion January 4. Year in Review SEATAC HAD THE WARMEST AVERAGE January TEMPERATURE EVER WITH 47.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD.

Hurricane Climatology and the Seasonal Forecast for the 2012 Hurricane Season John Cole and Andrew McKaughan, NOAA/NWS WFO Newport/Morehead City, NC.

The May-June-July 2013 Climate and Drought Outlook for Colorado Including a Review of Recent Weather, Snowpack and Recent Weather, Snowpack and Drought.

“Where America’s Climate, Weather Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Michelle L’Heureux NOAA Climate Prediction Center December 3, 2009 El Niño: What.

THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011 HUI-LING WU and CHIH-HUI SHIAO.

Seasonal Climate Cycles Precipitation. Precipitation Cycle NOTE THE FOLLOWNG LOW RAINFALL YEAR-ROUND OVER MOST OF TROPICAL OCEANS SPARSE RAINFALL YEAR-ROUND.

The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.

PAGASA-DOST Presscon - 04 October 2010 Amihan Conference Room.

Recent SST, Sea ice, and Snow Cover Monitoring and Diagnosis Beijing Climate Center, CMA YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Bing （ Thanks to Dr. Guo Y J and Dr. Ma L J ）

ENSO impact to atmospheric circulation system for summer Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1.

1 Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP September 7, 2007

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

By Matt Masek March 22, Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three.

Overview of 2012/2013 winter over South Korea

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, June 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 9 July 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 May 2011 For Real-time information:

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 Ke Zongjian, Wang Yongguang Beijing Climate Center

El Nino Southern Oscillation. Oceanic Temperatures as a Function of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2 nd.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information,

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 July 2008.

Weather Discussion 4/24/12. ENSO UPDATE Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures ( o C) Longitude Time From September January 2012,

Fifth Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2014 Hitoshi Sato Climate Prediction.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2008.

The Active 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Links to Known Climate Factors Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center.

Man-sze, CHEUNG Hong Kong Observatory

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

Seasonal outlook for summer 2017 over Japan

Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016

IRI Multi-model Probability Forecasts

Features of climate system since 2016 winter

El Niño and La Niña.

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

Preliminary Consensus Forecast for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

ENSO and Climate Outlook, Jan 2017:

Beijing Climate Center/CMA

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

Seasonal prediction of South Asian summer monsoon 2010: Met Office

Climate Outlook for Summer 2017

Non rotating planet.

Prediction for OND 2017 based on global models & CPT forecast.

T. Ose, T. Yasuda (MRI/JMA), Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, C. Kobayashi

ENSO and Climate Outlook, Feb 2017:

Prediction for OND 2017 based on global models

Presentation transcript:

Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea

Contents 1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

1. Recent Climate Features

Variation of Temperature in Summer(JJA)

Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)

The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA) Mean temperature 21.7℃(+0.4℃) Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃) Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃) Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃) Precipitation 757.6㎜(136％) Western part 754~1081㎜(129~185％) Eastern part 365~951㎜(71~185％) Northern Inland region 447~925㎜(97~202％)

The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF) Mean temperature -8.1℃(-2.3℃) Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃) Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃) Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃) Precipitation 55.3㎜(+13.1㎜) Dec. 22.5㎜(+6.7㎜) Jan. 12.9㎜(+0.3㎜) Feb. 19.9㎜(+6.2㎜)

2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction

Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013 Recent ENSO Condition Tropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013 Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S) -0.6℃ Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013 Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area

ENSO Prediction of CMFC Pacific SSTA prediction by analogue method for summer(JJA) (1977, 1994) 6-month prediction of Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods Niño 3.4 index: near or above normal But significance : relatively low

3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0 ∘ Meridional circulation : strengthened in middle latitude of East Asia ∘ Okhotsk high : stronger ∘ West Pacific Subtropical High : weaker than normal Interpreting the model ∘ Temperature: near normal ∘ Precipitation: below or near normal JJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly

Physical and Statistical Prediction 500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation Temperature: near Normal Precipitation: below or near normal Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011

Prediction MPI by BP Neural Network Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index for Summer Prediction MPI by BP Neural Network Niño 3.4 Index State Monsoon Activity normal Near or above normal R : near normal T : near normal R : below normal

Summary 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK Temperature : Near normal Precipitation : Below or near normal Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appeared 2. Monsoon activity: Near normal 3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normal

Thank you !