انوش نوری اسفندیاری دانشکده فنی- دوره 1390 اقتصاد مهندسی انوش نوری اسفندیاری دانشکده فنی- دوره 1390

فهرست عناوين اصلی اصول و فنون اقتصاد مهندسی در يك نگاه تقويم و ارزش گذاري پيامد ها ارزش زمانی پول سنجه های مقایسه ای اقتصاد مهندسی در فرایند چرخه طرح توسعه مباحث اقتصاد مهندسی

تقويم و ارزشگذاري پيامد ها عناوين مطالب بررسي و تحليل پيامد ها مفاهيم و طبقه بندي هزينه ها براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها تحليل هرينه فايده هاي فرابنگاهي و فرا اقتصادي نا اطمینانی ها براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها A Large-Scale Engineering Project Requires a large sum of investment Takes a long time to see the financial outcomes Difficult to predict the revenue and cost streams

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Megaprojects (sometimes also called "major programs") are extremely large-scale investment projects, typically costing more than US$1 billion per project. Megaprojects include bridges, tunnels, highways, railways, airports, seaports, power plants, dams, wastewater projects, coastal flood protection, oil and natural gas extraction projects, public buildings, information technology systems, aerospace projects, and defence systems.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Cost & Benefit Estimating Economic analysis is future based. Costs and benefits in the future require estimating. Estimated costs and benefits are not known with certainty. The more accurate the estimate, the more reliable the decision. Engineering Economic Analysis - Ninth Edition Newna/Eschenbach/Lavelle Copyright 2004 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Results of cost estimating are used for a variety of purposes Setting selling prices for quoting, bidding, or evaluating contracts. Determining if a proposed product can be made and distributed at a profit. Evaluating how much capital can be justified for changes and improvements. Setting benchmarks for productivity improvement programs.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Valuation techniques Market value: capital costs and maintenance and operating costs Benefits can be calculated from the expected revenues from future sales of products Not all inputs and outputs have a readily assigned market value. Value = cost of cheapest alternative Value can be estimated in other ways

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها A variety of sources exist for cost and revenue estimation. Accounting records: good for historical data, but limited for engineering economic analysis. Other sources inside the firm: e.g., sales, engineering, production, purchasing. Sources outside the firm: U.S. government data, industry surveys, trade journals, and personal contacts. Research and development: e.g., pilot plant, test marketing program, surveys.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها استفاده از مدل با و بدون طرح و منحنی تقاضا یل نهایی یا مشتق شده در برآورد فایده ها(ارزش کالا و خدمات)

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Types of Estimates Rough: gut level, inaccurate -30% to +60%. Semi-detailed: based on historical records, reasonably sophisticated and accurate -15% to +20%. Detailed: based on detailed specifications and cost models, very accurate -3% to +5%. Engineering Economic Analysis - Ninth Edition Newna/Eschenbach/Lavelle Copyright 2004 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Estimating Techniques REMEMBER! The purpose of estimating is to develop cash-flow projections—not to produce exact data about the future, which is virtually impossible. Cost and revenue estimates can be classified according to detail, accuracy, and their intended use. Order-of-magnitude estimates (±30%) Semidetailed, or budget, estimates (±15%) Definitive (detailed) estimates (±5%)

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Two cost estimation approaches Parametric cost estimating approach The integrated cost estimation approach

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Parametric cost estimating is the use of historical cost data and statistical techniques (e.g., linear regression) to predict future costs. Parametric models are used in the early design stages to get an idea of how much the product (or project) will cost, on the basis of a few physical attributes (such as weight, volume, and power).

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها The integrated cost estimation approach has three major components. Work breakdown structure (WBS) Cost and revenue structure (classification) Estimating techniques (models)

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A basic tool in project management A framework for defining all project work elements and their relationships, collecting and organizing information, developing relevant cost and revenue data, and management activities. Each level of a WBS divides the work elements into increasing detail.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) EXAMPLE

CAPEX SUMMARY - $US million 1. PROCESS UNITS: A. Condensate Distillation Unit (CDU) 75.6 B. Isomerisation (ISOM) 32.2 C. Naphtha Hydrotreater (NHT) 42 D. Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR) 85 2. UTILITIES: A. Electricals including Power Generation 19.9 B. Sea Water Intake sized for 3 Trains 19.5 C. Desalination Plant 17.8 D. MP Steam 12 E. LP Steam 8.5 F. Cooling Water System 3.2 Utilities – Total 80.9 E. Kerosene Treater Unit (KTU) 1.7 F. Diesel Hydrotreater (DHT) 37 G. Saturated Gas Plant (SGP) 11.5 H. LPG Treater Unit (LTU) 4.9 I. Amine Scrubbers and Regeneration 7 .9 J. Sour Water Stripper 6.9 K. Caustic Neutralisation Unit (CNU) 4.2 L. Sulphur Recovery Unit (SRU) 8.9 M. Pressure Swing Absorption Unit (PSA) 2.8 N. Waste water Treatment 6.5 3. FLARES & TANKAGE: A. Flares 3.7 B. Tankage 114.7 Flare & Tankage – Total 118.4 Process Units – Total 327.1

4. IMPORT & EXPORT FACILLITIES: A. SBM 32 B. On – Shore Pipelines 12 C. Pumping 1.5 D. LPG Terminal 18.5 Import & Export Facilities - Total 64.0 OPEX SUMMARY IN US$ MILLION PER ANNUM Personnel 3.2 Natural Gas 2.5 Catalysts & chemicals 1.4 Maintenance 1.5 Insurance 2.1 Shipping costs 15 TOTAL OPEX 25.7 5. LAND ACQUISITION, CIVIL WORKS & BUILDINGS: A. Land Acquisition 12.6 B Land Related Costs 1.3 C. Civil Works& Buildings 53.5 Land Acquisition, Civil Works & Buildings – Total 67.4 TOTAL CAPEX 657.8

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها A WBS has other characteristics Both functional and physical work elements are included. The content and resource requirements for a work element are the sum of the activities and resources of related subelements below it. A project WBS usually includes recurring and nonrecurring work elements.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها These models can be used in many types of estimates. Indexes Unit technique Factor technique

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Estimating Models Examples Model Explanation Per Unit Uses a “per unit” factor $/sq ft, Benefits/employee Segmenting Divide problem into items, estimate each & sum Cost Indexes Index number based on history Power Sizing Scaling previous known costs up or down Triangulation Looking at costs from several perspectives Learning Curve Tracking cost improvements US CPI Engineering Economic Analysis - Ninth Edition Newna/Eschenbach/Lavelle Copyright 2004 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها The factor technique is an extension of the unit technique where the products of several quantities are summed and then added to components estimated directly. C = cost being estimated Cd = cost of the selected component d estimated directly fm = cost per unit of component m Um = number of units of component m

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها Questor generates the following three main parameters that are used to develop resource cost (unit curves) – production profile, capital expenditure (CAPEX), and operating expenditure (OPEX).

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها تحليل هاي پيشرفته تر مربوط به هزينه ها و فايده ها تحليل هاي كرانه اي يا مار‍ينال تحليل هاي مربوط به كاهش بازده مهند سي ارزش ارزيابي هزينه ها تحليل هزينه موثر مديريت هزينه ها

براورد هزينه ها ي مهندسي و درامد/فايده ها تطبیق موضوع با طرح های شرکت ملی گاز ایران مصادیق مگا پروژه در حوزه گازی چیست؟ مراحل کار برآورد هزینه در جریان مطالعات سرمایه گذاری های گازی را تشریح نمایید؟ بخش های مختلف مدل برآورد هزینه QUESTER موسسه USGS را بررسي وبا مطالب ارائه شده تطبيق دهيد..