T. Laitinen, S. Dalla Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, UCLan, UK

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Presentation transcript:

T. Laitinen, S. Dalla Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, UCLan, UK Next-Generation modelling of SEPs: L5-L1 observations and SEP forecasting T. Laitinen, S. Dalla Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, UCLan, UK

SEP events: 1D view in 3D 1D view: SEPs along field lines SEPs at 1 AU: Diffusive transport convolves the injection Profiles result from acceleration? Single-point measurements: No global view of the SEP event Cane+ 1988

Multi-Spacecraft observations: 3D view of the whole event SEP event width: Multi-spacecraft observations give σlongitude=30-50º Advanced modelling needed to explain the width Width similar to L5/L1 separation, 60º Implies 10-fold difference in L1/L5 flux Similar to corotation timescale, 60º in 4 days -> Spacecraft motion important for fluxes Corotation effect significant (e.g. Giacalone+ 2012, Marsh+ 2015) Statistical studies possible with latest STEREO observations Dresing+ 2012 Richardson+ 2014

SEPs on fieldlines: A simple model Simple injection model: Impulsive injection at W0 σlongitude=40º Simple transport model: Diffusive propagation along Parker spiral 10 MeV protons L5 L1 Earth’s orbit

SEPs at L1and L5: Corotation effect Simple injection model: Impulsive injection at W0 σlongitude=40º Simple transport model: Diffusive propagation along Parker spiral 10 MeV protons L5 L1 Earth’s orbit See also Giacalone+ 2012, Marsh+ 2015

Corotation and SEP Fluence: Radiation dose See also Giacalone+ 2012 Corotation significant for event-integrated fluences Locally-accelerated particles contribute at lower ion energies: Full modelling needed Cross-field transport effects, deceleration at later stages significant: advanced modelling

Advanced models Cross-field diffusion (Zhang+ 2009, Droege+ 2010) Slow spreading across longitudes Large-scale drifts (Dalla+ 2013, Marsh+ 2015, Battarbee+ 2017) Non-diffusive, asymmetric, energy changes Turbulent meandering (Laitinen+ 2016) Fast initial SEP spreading across latitude and longitude All require/desire for forecasting: Multi-point SEP observations Multi-point SEP anisotropy Turbulence for transport parameters Large-scale structure Large-scale drifts (Marsh+ 2013) Cross-field diffusion (Droge+ 2010) Meandering (Laitinen+ 2016)

L5-L1 requirements for SEP forecasting SEP observations, >10 MeV/n ions L5+L1 SEP observations for intensity and fluence estimates L5 SEP observations connected to Earth- bound source: CME diagnostics using acceleration modelling (e.g. Vainio+ 2014) L5 SEP anisotropy (desirable): Duration of acceleration as CME diagnostics; transport vs acceleration analysis (advanced transport models) Field often not Parkerian: Sun+Anti-Sun directions not sufficient L5 In situ field observations (desirable) Magnetic turbulence at resonance scales (seconds to minutes) for SEP transport conditions Global heliosphere simulations for Parker geometry variations SEPs at 1 AU following a impulsive injection with Gaussian longitudinal distribution

Spare slides

Event duration as function of longitude SEP duration: non-symmetric dependence on the longitude difference between SC footpoint and flare (Dalla 2003) Scatter due to different radial distances and event maximum intensities Can be qualitatively explained with corotation Further study with STEREO 2014- 2015 observations needed (separation ~60º, both at 1 AU) 4-10 MeV proton event duration at IMP8, Helios 1 and Helios 2 (points), and model results (lines)

Effect of corotation (simple 1D model) Particle-filled field lines corotate with the Sun -> Earth moves about 15º per day towards L5 3-day timescale similar to σlongitude 4-day timescale similar to L1-L5 longitude difference Lines: intensity at different field lines. Dots: intensity for S/C seeing the event at E45

Corotation in other studies Marsh+ 2015 Giacalone & Jokipii 2012