劳动力市场

A Tour of the Labor Market 6-1 The noninstitutional civilian population are the number of people potentially available for civilian employment. [总人口—（未成年人+军队服役人员+监狱服刑人员）] The civilian labor force is the sum of those either working or looking for work. Those who are neither working nor looking for work are out of the labor force. The participation rate is the ratio of the labor force to the noninstitutional civilian population. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the labor force.

A Tour of the Labor Market Population, Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment in the United States (in millions), 2000

The Large Flows of Workers An unemployment rate may reflect two very different realities: An active labor market, with many separations and many hires, or A sclerotic, with few separations, few hires, and a stagnant unemployment pool. The Current Population Survey (CPS) produces employment data, including the movements of workers.

The Large Flows of Workers Average Monthly Flows Between Employment, Unemployment, and Nonparticipation in the United States, 1994-1999 (1) The flows of workers in and out of employment are large (2) The flows in and out of unemployment are large in relation to the number of unemployed (3) There are also large flows in and out of the labor force, much of them directly to and from employment

The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: The flows of workers in and out of employment are large. Separations （离职）consist of: Quits（请辞）, or workers leaving their jobs for a better alternative, and Layoffs（解雇）, which come from changes in employment levels across firms.

The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: The flows in and out of unemployment are large in relation to the number of unemployed.（44%） The average duration of unemployment is about three months.

The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: There are large flows in and out of the labor force, much of them directly to and from employment. Discouraged workers are classified as “out of the labor force,” but they may take a job if they find it. The nonemployment rate（非就业率） is the ratio of population minus employment to population.（注意：非就业率与失业率的区别）

Movements in Unemployment 6-2 Fluctuations in the aggregate unemployment rate affect: The welfare of individual workers Wages Higher unemployment affects workers: Through a decrease in hires—more difficult to find jobs. Through higher layoffs—higher risk of losing their jobs.

Movements in Unemployment Movements in the U.S. Unemployment Rate, 1948-2000 Since 1948, the average yearly U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3 and 10%.

Movements in Unemployment The Unemployment Rate and the Proportion of Unemployed Finding Jobs, 1968-1999 When unemployment is high, the proportion of unemployed finding jobs is low. Note, the scale on the right is an inverse scale.

Movements in Unemployment The Unemployment Rate and the Monthly Separation Rate from Employment, 1968-1999 When unemployment is high, a higher proportion of workers lose their jobs.

Wage Determination 6-3 Collective bargaining（集体谈判） is bargaining between firms and unions. Common forces at work in the determination of wages include: A tendency for the wage to exceed the reservation wage（保留工资）, or the wage that make them indifferent between working or becoming unemployed. Dependency of wages on labor-market conditions.（如失业率、社会保险水平）

Bargaining How much bargaining power a worker has depends on: How costly it would be for the firm to replace him—the nature of the job. How hard it would be for him to find another job—labor market conditions.

Efficiency Wages（效率工资） Efficiency wage theories are theories that link the productivity or the efficiency of workers to the wage they are paid. These theories also suggest that wages depend on both the nature of the job and on labor-market conditions.

效率工资存在的理由 工人健康：更高工资使工人营养更丰富，从而更健康，更有生产率 工人流动率：更高工资可以减少工人的流动率 工人素质：更高工资会吸引优秀人才 工人努力程度：更高工资会增加失去工资的机会成本，从而有利于激发工人的劳动积极性

Wages, Prices, and Unemployment The aggregate nominal wage, W, depends on three factors: The expected price level, Pe The unemployment rate, u A catchall variable, z, that catches all other variables that may affect the outcome of wage setting.

Wages, Prices, and Unemployment Both workers and firms care about real wages (W/P), not nominal wages (W). Higher unemployment weakens workers’ bargaining power, forcing them to accept lower wages. Among other factors that affect wages is unemployment insurance（失业保险）—the payment of unemployment benefits to workers who lose their jobs. Higher unemployment insurance allows workers to hold out for higher wages. Minimum wages and employment protection are other factors.

Price Determination 6-4 The production function is the relation between the inputs used in production and the quantity of output produced. Assuming that firms produce goods using only labor, the production function can be written as: Y = output N = employment A = labor productivity, or output per worker Further, assuming that one worker produces one unit of output—so that A = 1, then, the production function becomes:

Price Determination Firms set their price according to: The term  is the mark-up of the price over the cost of production. If all markets were perfectly competitive,  = 0, and P = W.

The Natural Rate of Unemployment 6-5 This section looks at the implications of wage and price determination for unemployment. We assume that Pe = P, and that nominal wages depends on the actual price level, P, rather than on the expected price level, Pe. Wage setting and price setting determine the equilibrium rate of unemployment.

The Wage-Setting Relation Earlier, we stated that the nominal wage rate was determined as follows: Now, since Pe = P, then: Dividing both sides by P, then: The wage-setting relation

The Price-Setting Relation The price-determination equation is: If we divide both sides by W, we get: To state this equation in terms of the wage rate, we invert both sides: The price-setting relation

The Wage-Setting Relation The Wage-Setting Relation, the Price-Setting Relation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment The real wage chosen in wage setting is a decreasing function of the unemployment rate. The real wage implied by the price setting is constant, independent of the unemployment rate.

Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment The Wage-Setting Relation, the Price-Setting Relation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate such that the real wage chosen in wage setting is equal to the real wage implied by price setting.

Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment Eliminating W/P from the wage-setting and the price-setting relations, we can obtain the equilibrium unemployment rate, or natural rate of unemployment, un:

Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment 失业救济金和自然失业率 An increase in unemployment benefits leads to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. 失业救济金提高 实际工资增加 失业率上升 实际工资下降

Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment 价格加成和自然失业率 An increase in markups decreases the real wage, and leads to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment.

The Structural Rate of Unemployment （结构性失业率） Because the equilibrium rate of unemployment reflects the structure of the economy, a better name for the natural rate of unemployment is the structural rate of unemployment.

From Unemployment to Employment Associated with the natural rate of unemployment is a natural level of employment.（自然就业水平） Employment in terms of the labor force and the unemployment rate equals: The natural level of employment, Nn, is given by:

From Employment to Output Associated with the natural level of employment is a natural level of output, (and since Y=N, then,) The natural level of output satisfies the following: In words, the natural level of output is such that, at the associated rate of unemployment, the real wage chosen in wage setting is equal to the real wage implied by price setting.

Key Terms noninstitutionalized civilian population, labor force; out of the labor force, participation rate, unemployment rate, separations, hires, Current Population Survey (CPS), quits, layoffs, duration of unemployment, discouraged workers, nonemployment rate, collective bargaining, reservation wage, bargaining power, efficiency wage theories, unemployment insurance, production function, labor productivity, markup, wage-setting relation, price-setting relation, natural rate of unemployment, structural rate of unemployment, natural level of employment, natural level of output,