Political Socialization and Polling Public Opinion Political Socialization and Polling
Political Socialization Where do we get our political ideas from? Family Religion Education Gender Region of the country Age Race These are just predictors everyone is open to making their own choices
What is Public Opinion? Class poll- How much do you like the president on a scale of 1-5 How scared of Donald Trump are you on a scale of 1-5 How great is America on a scale of 1-5
What is Public Opinion? Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things Not easy to measure The opinions of active and knowledgeable people carry more weight
How Polling Works Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly They have to ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion
What to look for in a Poll Who did it- What bias might they have When was it done- old is bad, but informative How many people were polled- the more the better What questions were asked Are the conclusions reasonable
Random Sampling Random sampling is necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3% Real Clear Politics
Nine Senate Contests to Watch U.S. Senate Elections Nine Senate Contests to Watch Colorado Florida Illinois Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin Bennett* 40.0% vs. Coffman 43.0% Coffman +3 TBD Duckworth 42.0% vs. Kirk* 36.0% Duckworth +6 Hassan 41.5% vs. Ayotte* 45.3% Ayotte* +3.8 Ross 36.5% vs. Burr* 42.5% Burr* +6.0 Strickland 41.0% vs. Portman* 40.0% Strickland +1.0 McGinty 32.6% vs. Toomey* 44.8% Toomey* +12.2 Feingold 48.7% vs. Johnson* 43.0 Feingold +5.7 ELECTION 2016 * Incumbent Senator Polling Numbers are the Real Clear Politics Average
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2014 U.S. Demographic Population Data 2016
Table 7.3: The Gender Gap: Differences in Political Views of Men and Women
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION White Vote Broken Down by Gender 2016
Figure 7.1: Generational Gaps on the Issues Insert table 5.3 Survey by Washington Post/Henry J. Kaiser Foundation/Harvard University, August 2-September 1, 2002, as reported in Elizabeth Hamel et al., "Younger Voters," Public Perspective, May/June 2003, p. 11.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION White Vote Broken Down by Education Level 2016
Figure 7.3: Ideological Self-Identification Insert figure 7.3 (formerly 5.2 in 9e) The American Enterprise (March/April 1993): 84, Robert S. Ericson and Kent L. Tedin, American Public Opinion (New York: Longman, 2001), 101, citing surveys by CBS/New York Times.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION U.S. Demographic Voting Trends 2016
Table 7.6: How Liberals and Conservatives Differ Insert table 7.7 (formerly 5.7 in 9e)
Table 7.7: Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters
Now lets look at this election THE CANDIDATES
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Latest Major Poll Numbers 2016
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Poll Numbers (cont.) 2016
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Issues that Favor Each Candidate 2016
2016 Election Shaping up as a Contest of Negatives PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Election Shaping up as a Contest of Negatives 2016
2016 Road to 270: Where Trump, Clinton start their race PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Road to 270: Where Trump, Clinton start their race 2016
Do Utahns agree or disagree? PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have both said that the United States election system is “rigged”. Do Utahns agree or disagree? 2016 Survey by Dan Jones & Associates, May 2-10, 2016. 588 registered voters. Margin of error +/-4.04%
2016 Owens holds edge over Love in Tribune-Hinckley poll UTAH CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION Owens holds edge over Love in Tribune-Hinckley poll 2016
Push Polling an ostensible “opinion poll” in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions.