Tech to Tech Odyssey of a kid from Brooklyn Tech to Florida Tech

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Presentation transcript:

Tech to Tech Odyssey of a kid from Brooklyn Tech to Florida Tech Professor George A. Maul, Ph.D. Diploma, Brooklyn Technical High School, New York B.S., State University of New York, Maritime College at Fort Schuyler; USCG Merchant Marine Officers License Commissioned Officer (ENS - LCDR), United States Coast and Geodetic Survey Ph.D., University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Senior Scientist, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Professor of Oceanography and Department Head, Florida Institute of Technology

HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN

Written by John M. Williams edited and presented by George A Written by John M. Williams edited and presented by George A. Maul Professor and Department Head Marine & Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology

Hurricane Structure Wind speed

Hurricane Tracks Rita, 2005

Florida Keys, 1935

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 1950-2000 Average Number Tropical Storms: 9.6 Hurricanes: 5.9 Intense Hurricanes: 2.3

1995 19 11 5 9.6 5.9 2.3 Erin 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes 5.9 11 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 5 Erin

1996 13 9 6 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 2.3 6

1997 7 3 1 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 2.3 1

1998 14 10 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes 5.9 10 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 3 1 CAT 5

1999 12 8 5 9.6 5.9 2.3 Floyd and Andrew 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms 9.6 12 Hurricanes 5.9 8 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 5 Floyd and Andrew

2000 15 8 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 2.3 3

2001 15 9 4 9.6 5.9 2.3 TS Allison, Texas 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms 9.6 15 Hurricanes 5.9 9 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 4 TS Allison, Texas

2002 12 4 2 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 2.3 2

2003 16 6 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes 5.9 6 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 3 1 CAT 5

2004 15 8 6 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes 5.9 8 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 6 1 CAT 5

South Atlantic “Catarina”: March 2004

Charley: August 2004

Frances: September 2004

Jeanne: September 2004

FIRST TIME USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET 1950-2000 Average 2005 Tropical Storms 9.6 27 Hurricanes 5.9 15 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 7 4 CAT 5 FIRST TIME USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET 882 mb

Katrina (2005) Rainfall

Steering Currents AUG. 2005 AUG. 2004

Steering Currents SEP. 2005 SEP. 2004

1933 Hurricane Tracking Chart 1950-2000 Average 1933 Tropical Storms 9.6 21 Hurricanes 5.9 10 Intense Hurricanes 2.3 6 ?

Wilma west coast Strom Surge Category Maximum Sustained Wind Speed mph (m/s) Minimum Surface Pressure mb Storm Surge m (ft) 1 74-96 (33-42) > 980 1.0-1.7 (3-5) 2 97-111 (43-49) 979-965 1.8-2.6 (6-8) 3 112-131 (50-58) 964-945 2.7-3.8 (9-12) 4 132-155 (59-69) 944-920 3.9-5.6 (13-18) 5 156+ (70+) < 920 5.7+ (19+)

Wilma: October 2005

Wilma east coast Storm Surge Category Maximum Sustained Wind Speed mph (m/s) Minimum Surface Pressure mb Storm Surge m (ft) 1 74-96 (33-42) > 980 1.0-1.7 (3-5) 2 97-111 (43-49) 979-965 1.8-2.6 (6-8) 3 112-131 (50-58) 964-945 2.7-3.8 (9-12) 4 132-155 (59-69) 944-920 3.9-5.6 (13-18) 5 156+ (70+) < 920 5.7+ (19+)

9 5 2 2006 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes 2.3 2

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Total Risk = hazard frequency x elements at risk x vulnerability 1950-2000 Average NOAA CSU Accu-weather UKMO Named Storms 9.6 13-17 17 13-14 7-13 Hurricanes 5.9 7-10 9 Category 3+ 2.3 3-5 5 3+ 2007 season estimates

The big one is still out there 2007 season forecast: 17 named storms 9 hurricanes 5 intense hurricanes

John M. Williams 1927-2007