Reconciling the System of National Accounts for the U. S Reconciling the System of National Accounts for the U.S. and Estimation of Structural Distribution of the Statistical Discrepancy Baoline Chen Bureau of Economic Analysis Washington, DC 20230 July 15~17, 2009 15th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance Sydney, Australia

1. Introduction

Introduction (cont.)

Introduction (cont.)

Introduction (cont.)

Introduction (cont.)

2. Major Data Problems Identified

3. GLS Reconciliation Model

GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

GLS Reconciliation Model (cont.)

4. Reliability of Initial Data

Reliability of Initial Data (Cont.)

Reliability of Initial Data (Cont.)

5. Balanced Estimates and Distribution of Aggregate SD

Table 2-a: Balanced Estimates of Industry Aggregates and % Adjustments from Initial Estimates

Table 2-b: Balanced Estimates of Commodity Aggregates and Percentage Adjustments from Initial Estimates

Table 3: Distribution of Aggregate SD between VA and Final Uses

Table 4-a: Initial and Balanced Estimates for 65 Industries (In billion dollars and %)

Table 4-b: Initial and Balanced Estimates for 69 Commodities (In billion dollars and %)

Table 5-a: Estimates of Statistical Discrepancy by Industry (In billion dollars and %)

Table 5-b: Estimates of Statistical Discrepancy by Expenditure Category (In billion dollars and %)

Histograms and Statistics of % Adjustment in Variables

Histograms and Statistics of % Adjustment in Variables

Histograms and Statistics of SD distribution

6. Conclusion

Absolute Percentage Adjustments in Gross Output and Intermediate Inputs

Absolute Percentage Adjustments in GOS and Final Uses

Statistics of Absolute Percentage Adjustments in Variables