PHYS-E6572 Advanced Wind Power Technology Eero Vesterinen 79925N EUROPEAN GRID STUDY 2030/2050 Eckehard Tröster Rena Kuwahata Thomas Ackermann PHYS-E6572 Advanced Wind Power Technology Eero Vesterinen 79925N

OVERVIEW Targets Methods Results Conclusions 1/17

STUDY TARGETS To determine: Required improvements in grid infrastructure Integrating high shares of renewable energy source (RES) –based electricity Maintaining security of supply Impacts of: Storage Demand-side management (DSM) Delayed phase-out of inflexible generation Energy imports from North Africa 2/17

STUDY TARGETS Excluded: Distribution network Economic power system optimisation and the economics of operating the power system Required network upgrades and the cost of curtailed renewable energy are the only economic issues investigated Further regulatory and policy implications Voltage and dynamic issues 3/17

STUDY METHODS Model the European electricity grid for the target year (2030 or 2050) Estimate the energy utilisation characteristics applying hourly wind and solar data Investigate the impact of different pathway scenarios Optimise the grid to minimize curtailed renewable energy 4/17

224 nodes across the Europe Hourly data of a standard year in each node applied Linear interpolation from 6-hourly data Energynautics grid model (2010) 5/17

PATHWAY SCENARIOS Three different levels (5%, 10% and 20%) of demand-side management Inclusion of storage Extended use of conventional power generation European supergrid High voltage direct current highways Import from North Africa Carbon capture and storage 6/17

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE SHARES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (EU27) 2015 2030 2050 28% 68% 98% 11% 29% 33% 34% 39% 34% 320 939 1392 RES: Wind: Wind of RES: Wind cap. (GW):

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2030 Spain - France and Italy - Central Europe 20 GW France 26 GW transfer capacity North Sea offshore grid and surroundings 16 GW offshore 15 GW onshore Support to Great Britain and Norway 15 GW Balkans and Eastern Europe 40 GW transfer capacity Nordic countries 10 GW transfer capacity 8/17

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2030 Storage inclusion Two different strategies Large compressed air or pumped hydro storages Large-scale electric vehicle distribution Reduces offshore wind curtailment High costs compared to grid upgrades 9/17

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2030 Curtailed energy The role of DSM and storage seems to increase when increasing RES share (2050) 10/17

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2030 11/17

NORTH SEA OFFSHORE GRID 65 GW estimated to be available for harvesting Large grid improvements required to reduce curtailment HVDC (High voltage direct current) grid More than 20 GW grid enforcements required 12/17

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2050 Regional scenario North Africa import scenario Increased renewable energy production in Europe High generation capacity increase costs North Africa import scenario 60 GW import from North Africa via Spain and Italy High grid investment costs 13/17

STUDY RESULTS FOR 2050 14/17

CONCLUSIONS Large grid upgrades required Especially from North Sea and Southern Europe to the load centers in Central Europe To ensure curtailment reductions (North Sea) HVDC supergrid Little impact from DSM and storage inclusion But: Reduce curtailment Increased impact according to increased RES share 15/17

CONCLUSIONS 16/17

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 17/17