Naya Sharma Paudel Dil Bahadur Khatri Rahul Karki Govinda Paudel Understanding deforestation and forest degradation in the context of REDD+ in Nepal   Naya Sharma Paudel Dil Bahadur Khatri Rahul Karki Govinda Paudel

Key messages Drivers of D&D are diverse, complex and operate in different combination and permutation There are distinct regional variations but most of them have common underlying causes The most common feature is degradation which gradually in the long run turns into deforestation While forest dependent poor can be visible agents, a close scrutiny reveals strong roles of powerful state and market agents in D&D Corruption is pervasive and is one of the central underlying causes of D&D Policies and measures have not been successful due to weak political will and also its limited scope of strengthening law enforcement Many drivers are outside forest sector and therefore initiatives from within MoFSC are inadequate

Methodology Content analysis Textual contents of the key policy documents - forest policies and other key sectoral policies. Interview Interviews with key government officials, experts on the field, activists and local leaders Consultation meetings Local, regional levels, and national level Case stories   Few cases mainly from Terai: far western (Dadeldhura district), central (Rautahat district) and eastern (Morang district) regions Media scanning   An analysis few key newspapers (from 2010 to 2013). We used both vertical and horizontal collection of media coverage. Secondary information Secondary information was accessed from reports of various government institutions, donor agencies and civil society organizations (CSOs)

Analytical framework Political ecology combines the concerns of ecology and a broadly defined political economy thereby encompassing the constantly shifting dialectics between the society and environmental resources (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987) It is an attempt to understand the political sources, conditions and ramification of environmental changes (1992:13) It understands environment not only in its biophysical terms but also in its social form and therefore internalises the sensitivity of diverse socio-political forces and their relation with D&D ( Bryant and Bailey 1997).

Framework for analysing D&D Concept of proximate and underlying causes (Geist and Lambin 2001) (based on the sub-national data obtained from 152 cases in 29 countries) Category Definition Examples Proximate causes Land-based human activities that directly result in loss of forest area or its quality Biomass extraction, agricultural expansion and expansion of infrastructure Underlying causes Fundamental socio-economic and institutional forces that underpin the more obvious causes of D&D Economic, policy/institutional, politico-cultural, technological and demographic Others   Mainly to refer to the natural phenomena Fire and invasive alien species As different drivers operate together in different combination and sequence, the study considers the multiple combinations of these drivers

Deforestation and forest degradation – current status Forest areas decreased from 45.5% (1964)- 38.1% (1978) – 29% (1994) Deforestation rate 1.7% (between 1978-1994)(DFRS/FRISP 1999); 1.63 (1990-2005) (FAO 2005:10); Forest area decreased at 2.7 percent and shrub lands increased with 12.7% (1991-2001) (CBS, 2008). Terai 0.06% during (1990- 2000) (DoF 2005); Terai 1.3% (1978-1990) (DOF 2005) Measurement is not periodic, and different methodologies are used Major form of land use change is forest – shrub – agricultural land

Proximate drivers Ranking Interview with experts A survey with 35 people SN Proximate drivers 1 Illegale logging 2 Encroachment 3 Fuelwood collection 4 Road 5 Forest fire 6 grazing 7 Invasive alien species 8 Fodder collection 9 Mining 10 hydropower Drivers (not in any order) Area coverage and distribution (1-5) Volume of biomass removed Economic cost of reversal Socio-political feasibility of reversal Future strength of driver   Interview with experts Validation during local level workshops

Encroachment – different strategies

Roads

Economic causes of D&D Illegal logging Encroachment   Illegal logging Encroachment Fuelwood collection Roads High demand for forest resources Social preference, increased purchasing ability, timber intensive construction, constrained and unpredictable supply Increasing food scarcity, decreasing land productivity, large mass of landless, land speculation High costs of alternative fuel, and increasing brick factories, hotels, tourism, alcohol making An unquestionable development priority, especially of local governments Poverty Desperate poor residing in and around forests, lack of alternative income and employment, deployed usually by traders and smugglers Landless poor take refuge in forestland as a last resort Poor people rely heavily on fuelwood for both household use and sale

Policy, governance and tenure   Illegal logging Encroachment Fuelwood Road Weak law enforcement Organised criminals, life threats to DFO staff, weak capacity of DFO, political interference and impunity, weak judiciary system Weak DFO capacity to monitor and evacuate illegal settlers, political party often back settlers Weak DFO capacity to monitor and check unsustainable harvesting Weak enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessment and other environmental standards Weak tenure and local governance Government managed forest are de facto open access and therefore invites unsustainable and criminal activities Government managed forests are de facto open access and therefore are easy to occupy and settle illegally In CF/CBFM fuelwood is collected sustainably. In government managed forest, this is mainly due to de facto open access situation Private landowners tend to push the roads towards public forestlands

Weak governance – some indicators

Underlying causes and their ultimate effects Unpredictable policy decision Changes in leadership Frequent changes of DFOs Unsettled society No bold decision Prolonged political transition Fragmented society Weak legitimacy Weak law enforcement D&D Vested policy decision Myopic perspective Political interference Poor rule compliance Poor accountability Poor governance Corruption

Frequently observed misconducts by different actors Political, senior official level Non-transparent staffs transfer Unjustified policy decisions Non-transparent licences Manipulate legal cases District/frontline staff Unprofessional Permits/approval Manipulate measurements Weak and subjective monitoring Leaders of forest user groups Maintain dual records Heavy reliance on contractors Unaccounted or unreported harvesting Contractors Bribe leaders/officials at all level Facilitate negotiation between staff, local leaders Involve throughout the value chain: (handover/inventory –to -harvesting –transportation) Non-forestry agents Parties/sister organisations – levy Chulthe-mundre – forceful levy Security personnel - petty cash   Unsustainable harvesting

Economic Increased demand for forest products Increased access to market High price of substitute Poverty and high dependency on forests   Socio-political Prolonged political transition, instability Differentiated and fragile society Rent seeking behaviour Demographic drivers Population growth Migration Identity movements Technological drivers Poor technology in forest management Low agriculture productivity Policy, institution &governance Poor transparency and participation Weak law enforcement Corruption Weak tenure Unsustainable extraction of forest products Illegal logging Fuelwood collection Grazing NTFPs collection Agriculture Sukumbasisettlements Gradual encroachment Shifting cultivation Infrastructure Road contruction Hydro-power Mining Urbanisation Industrial area Buildings Others Forest fire Invasive species

Some important policies and measures Illegal logging Protected Areas Strong law and presence of army have reduced D&D, but has displaced pressure to other forests, discouraged road through PAs Churia Cons. Prog Better conservation in some areas, deterred logging, but alienated local people, criminalised forest product use CBFM (CF, LHF, CFM, BZ CF) Substantially reduced illegal logging, increased timber and fuelwood supply, reduced encroachment, few exceptions exist, roads are constructed through CF to ease extraction law enforcement   Increased cross-sector coordination, evacuation of illegal settlements, increased surveillance, strengthening IEE/EIA Periodic ban on logging Increased uncertainty, fluctuation in timber market, induce over harvesting before and after such bans SFM Piloting shows increased supply of sustainable timber/ fuelwood Measures on dev project Require to compensate through plantation against the logging of trees in project areas, compliance with EIA

Challenges in addressing D&D Complexity of drivers (too many actors, diversity of dynamics, ecological specificities, livelihood sensitivities) Ineffectiveness of existing policies and measures (narrow focus on law enforcement, poor cross sectoral coordination, displacement effects) Inadequate capacity and preparedness of forest sector institutions (weak political commitment, weak legitimacy and authority, poorly equipped, low morale)

Likely scenario of D&D for this decade Underlying causes Trends Effects on proximate drivers Economic Increased demand for forest products + Increasing remittance + Changing lifestyle + Illegal logging - Fuelwood consumption Increased access to market + Road network + Market demand High price of substitute + Price of oil + Fuelwood consumption Poverty and high dependency on forests + Poverty reduce + Demand for agri-land + Encroachment Policy, institution &governance Poor transparency and participation - Transparency and participation may improve + But contestation and conflicts may increase + Unsustainable roads Weak law enforcement + Little prospects of improving law enforcement in the near future Corruption - CIAA has taken good initiatives, but may remain temporary - Illegal logging - Unsustainable roads Weak tenure + No sigh of tenure reform - May improve with federalism

Key recommended Strategies Sustainable management of forests Governance reform Strengthen law enforcement REDD+ and Agriculture REDD+ and Road REDD+ and Energy

REDD+ forest sector reform Policies and measures Cost of implementation Socio-economic impacts Potential support from REDD+ funds Governance improvement Difficult to gain honesty and integrity at political level No apparent loss apart from few those benefiting from status quo May have limitations in improving governance Sustainable management forests No major costs apart from initial investment, requires reorientation increase supply of forests resources from sustainable sources REDD+ funds help improve forest management Strengthen law enforcement Political support can be gained, costs involves in capacity, technology, May restrict forest dependent poor from accessing forests and lands REDD+ funds can support capacity, technology and compensate those affected

REDD+ Agriculture Policy measures Cost of implementation Socio-economic impacts Potential support from REDD+ funds Land use plan (identification of priority areas for forests, agriculture, settlements, that maximizes the production potentials of each land category) Requires high political commitment, results in high initial cost of compliance Some level of social unrest, Can be used for further detail planning and support in its implementation Increase/ensure peasant's access to land Political feasibility moderate, no measure cost encourages investment, reduce dependency on forests   Intensification (Increasing productivity through climate smart’ agriculture) High political feasibility, cost of technology and other support system Benefits small scale and subsistence farmers (SSS) REDD+ funds can support intensification through technology, extension Agroforestry Political feasibility moderate, cost of technology and other support system Careful integration can benefit REDD+ funds can support agroforestry promotion Supportive policies (agricultural tariffs, subsidies, targeted support, PES, ecotourism)

REDD+ Energy Policy measures Cost of implementation Socio-economic impacts Potential support from REDD+ funds sustainable management of natural wood fuel resources (based on OP/MP that is ecologically within the regeneration capacity) No additional costs in CBFM, in Govt managed forest, need to introduce some workable regime   Communities relying on govt forest may suffer from restriction Active forest management including plantation Some incentive to communities under CBFM, government must increase its investment for forest management Government and communities both will benefit REDD+ revenue can be spent for active forest management Increase availability of renewable energy sources (electricity, biogas, biobriquette, LP gas) Electricity is scarce in the short run, other sources are also not adequate Poor people cannot afford to pay due to high price and scarcity REDD funds can subsidize these sources Improved cooking stove High political support, Moderate cost to replace the existing cooking stoves, socio-cultural resistance in some case +ve impacts for women and children REDD+ funds can support such schemes

REDD+ Infrastructure Policy measures Cost of implementation Socio-economic impacts Potential support from REDD+ funds Road schemes within the local planning process Needs a strong political commitment for a fully decentralized approach + ve impacts due to proper planning - Timely release of funds Has been slightly improved, achievable + no negative impacts Sustainable technologies adopted Technocratic approach can work +ve. Creates employment opportunities REDD+ funds can subsidies for sustainable technologies Inbuilt repair and maintenance arrangement - Ve. Initial cost increases REDD+ funds can support timely and effective repair