Forest Fires and Controlled Burning Group 16 Brandon Stone | Pavle Popovic | Asher MacEnulty | David Hughes | Sally Jiang

Testable Question How does controlled burning affect the amount of forest burned by area in a simulated deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment?

Hypothesis If a deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment is under the influence of controlled burning, then in a forest fire the area of the forest burned will be less than a deciduous aspen forest in a sub- alpine environment not under the influence of controlled burning because there will be less fuel for a fire to spread.

Why so specific? Aspen grow in forests from 6,500 to 11,000 feet in elevation, and up to the treeline Average colorado elev 6,800 ft Aspen are easily damaged by fire, wind, and many kinds of insects, fungi, and animals Susceptible to a wipeout in the event of an uncontrolled forest fire Controlled burning isn’t detrimental to the ecosystem because Aspen sprouts grow quickly from roots In controlled burning, aspen can regrow easily and steadily Controlled burning helps to renew the forest, stimulating the germination of forest trees Reduces fuel for a possible forest fire, controls competing vegetation and improves wildlife habitat Aspen is one of the most widely distributed trees of North America Data collected from simulation can be used in different countries

Context Important to know because: The knowledge gained can be used to help mitigate the danger and area burned in future forest fires of forests consisting of mostly aspens Controlled burning is currently an illegal method of fire prevention in Colorado Knowledge gained could be used to reverse the ban on controlled burning in Colorado If the results of the simulation are proven to be accurate and effective controlled burning may be reintroduced to Colorado This would mitigate the effects of uncontrollable forest fires

Purpose Purpose To design a simulation software that will accurately mimic the effects of controlled burning in a deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment using grant money Benefits of simulation Impractical, unethical, and illegal in Colorado to experiment with controlled burning and actual forest fires Variables accurately controlled Independent variable easily controlled Dependent variable determined mathematically Control variables manipulated Control variables can be manipulated independently, and their effect on the dependent variable determined accordingly. Allows us to compile a database of historical forest fires, and how specific conditions affected those fires.

Grant Proposal Contract a software engineer to program software simulation ($5000) Dell computer and monitor x2 ($2500) Total ($7500)

Variables (specifications for simulation) Independent Variables Dependent Variables Controlled Variables Controlled burn vs no controlled burn Area of forest burned (in acres) Weather, density, type of tree, elevation, method of controlled burning, average height of trees Relevance Controlled burning is currently illegal in Colorado. We need simulations to advise whether controlled burning is effective. Most effective way to measure the effects of the independent variable. Deciduous aspen forests in sub-alpine environments are most applicable to colorado. It is important to measure the effects of forest fire on this specific group. These variables are controlled through the software simulation.