Looking to the Future : Environment and Energy Federative Republic of Brazil Presentator : Kim, Ji Hye Pereira, A. O., Soares, J. B., Oliveira R. G. and Queiroz, R. P. 2008. Energy in Brazil: Toward sustainable development. Energy Policy. 36: 73-83.

Brazil Federative Republic of Brazil The world’s fifth largest country Over 192 million people Portuguese-speaking country The world’s seventh largest by nominal GDP One of BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) country Various but most of the country is tropical climate The Amazon Rainforest, the largest tropical forest in the world with greatest biodiversity The natural heritage threatened by agriculture, wildlife trade, dams etc.

Scenarios of demand energy 2030 In the scenario with the highest rate of economic growth (scenario A), GDP develops on average 5.1% per year, for an annual growth rate of 3.8% for the world economy. The scenario with the lowest rate of economic growth (scenario C) is where both the Brazilian and the world economies grow at the rate of 2.2% per year. The other two scenarios (B1 and B2) have growth rates of 4.1% and 3.2% per year, respectively. Both flow out of a scenario where the world economy grows at an annual average rate of 3%. The demographic growth data were obtained from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), which forecasts that Brazil will have a population of approximately 239 million inhabitants by 2030, 30% larger, in other words, than the current. Whichever way, a significant reduction in the rate of population growth is noted, as well as the number of persons by dwelling (see Table 2). Currently, the population of Brazil is growing at about 1.4% per year, a little less than the average for Latin America, which is 1.5% per year, according to UN data. In 2030, the rate of population growth will fall to approximately 0.7% per year, the current level in Canada, according to UN data. TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent) - a unit of energy, the amount of energy released by burning one ton of crude oil

Projection energy supply Non renewable energy (unit-mil toe) Renewable energy (unit-mil toe)

Energy consumption 103 toe

International comparison of per person consumption of electric energy

Energy intensity by sector Energy intensity : a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation's economy. It is calculated as units of energy per unit of GDP.

International comparison of total per person consumption of energy

Production indicators The production of all the sources increases with reduction, on average, of transformation and distribution losses. The indicators show that there is great availability of resources in the MEN(Matriz Energetica Nacional 2030) 2030 horizon under consideration.

Diversification of sources

Energy import dependency The energy import dependency, defined as the relationship between energy demand (including transformation, distribution and storage losses) and energy supply, decreases during the first 15 years of the projection timeframe, reverting that tendency at the end of the period as a result of the growth in demand, associated with the expansion of the economy and the hypothetical evolution in the reserves and production of oil and natural gas. But, it does not exceed 11% in 2030.

Environmental dimension The environmental impacts depend in a large part on how much energy is consumed and produced and on the type of energy used. The environmental indicators are divided into three themes: atmosphere, water and land.

Environmental energy indicator Theme Subtheme Energy indicator Atmosphere Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production and use per capita and per unit of GDP Air quality Concentrations of air pollutants in urban areas Air pollutant emissions from energy systems Water Water quality Discharges in liquid effluents from energy systems Land Soil quality Area where acidification exceeds critical load Forest Rate of deforestation attributed to energy use Solid waste generation and management Ratio of solid waste generation to units of energy produced Ratio of solid waste properly disposed of to total generated solid waste Ratio of solid radioactive waste to units of energy produced Ratio of solid radioactive waste awaiting disposal to total generated solid radioactive waste Energy is one of the principal driving forces in the economical development of a country. It is the fundamental input for the production of goods and services, apart from increasing the well-being of the population, through the provision of thermal comfort, light and leisure, among other benefits. These benefits, however, are accompanied by high economic and environmental costs. The construction of great hydroelectric dams, the exploration and processing of oil, and nuclear power generation are examples of projects that demand high investments and that can cause important environmental impacts.

Atmosphere – CO2 International comparison of total per person CO2 emissions The national economy’s CO2 emissions are little intensive in carbon . Structural decomposition analysis can help to determine more precisely the direct and indirect emissions of the economy’s production

Land use 2008 The theme land, in Brazil, is very sensitive because agriculture is an activity of great importance for the economy. The country has a huge availability of land and the agriculture activity expansion does not imply necessarily in deforestation.

Water Agriculture, hydropower plants are another issue very sensitive in Brazil. There is a vast resource that is still unexplored. It happens that about 70% of the hydraulic potential to be taken advantage of is in Amazonia and in the Cerrado, biomes that cover approximately two-thirds of the national territory and that very clearly reflect the arguments and difficulties arising in the definition of policies and practices of sustainable environmental management. The Plan of Electrical Energy Expansion between 2006 and 2015, the total area inundated by the hydropower plants will be 6.4 million hectares, that represents 1.6% of Amazon forest plus the areas of environmental protection.

THANKS If nature were not beautiful, it would not be worth knowing, and if nature were not worth knowing, life would not be worth living” -Henri Poincare-