Export History From Washington State Input-Output Models Bill Beyers Geography – UW March 5, 2013

The Economic Base Trade to other regions fuels overall job levels in the Washington State economy The historical series of input-models provides a set of snapshots of how the level and composition of the state economic base has changed over time Three export markets are tracked in these models: federal government, exports to the rest of the United States, and foreign exports

Notes on these graphs Data for the following graphs come from the 8 Washington input-output models These models are largely based on survey data The models have been aggregated in a common sectoring scheme in constant $, to control for changing industry definitions and inflation that varies by sector Underlying data is available at a 25-sector level, aggregated here in most cases to 10 sectors for clarity

Changing Export Markets U.S. export markets are consistently 60% of total exports; federal markets have clearly fallen, while foreign markets have grown

Exports By Sector

Composition of Exports

Exports by Market Type The next slides report export levels and sector mix by market type Federal government exports have declined as a share of the total, but in constant $1972 have risen from $1.8 billion in 1963 to $3.8 billion in 2007 Exports to the rest of the United States remain the largest market for Washington industries, rising from $4 to $35 billion in constant $1972 Foreign exports have grown over time, basically replacing the federal government as an export market. In constant $1972 foreign exports have risen from $0.6 billion to $21 billion

Federal Export Share by Sector A huge drop in aerospace, a rise in services. Other mfg. has seen a change in the role Of Hanford (mostly now in services) and Bremerton Naval Yard (in other mfg.)

Federal Exports in Constant $1972

Exports to the Rest of the U.S. Goods production shrinks from about 88% in 1963 to about 52% in 2007, with a clear Rise in the share of exports of services. Forest products shows a long-run decline.

Exports to the Rest of the U.S. in constant $1972

Foreign Exports Natural resource, food and forest products decline from about 54% to about 18% of foreign Exports, while all manufacturing & natural resources declines from about 90% to about 68% Of exports. Service industries show a systematic rise in the share of exports.

Exports to foreign markets in constant $1972 Aerospace clearly led this expansion of foreign trade, but it has become more diversified In recent years.

Summary (1) This history from the Washington input-output models is unique No other state has an historical sequence of data of this type These data identify markets changing in absolute and relative levels over time They clearly indicate the strong continuing role of domestic markets for Washington industries, while foreign markets have grown at the same time as federal markets have declined

Summary (2) Economic Development program strategy implications of this history include: - do not focus only on foreign trade– the U.S. and the federal government are very important markets - the shift of the economy towards services means that they must be an important part of economic development strategies It would be risky to extrapolate the trend data presented here Ideas for expanding analyses of the history of the Washington I/O models are welcomed.