World Population Growth Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age 8 Old Stone Bronze Iron Middle 7 Age New Stone Age Age Age Ages 6 2000 Future 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 Black Death — The Plague 1800 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
Big Differences... Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Trends in Childbearing, by Region Average number of children per woman Every region has been experiencing declines in levels of childbearing. The greatest declines since the late 1960s have occurred in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, at the beginning of this century, only the more developed regions have childbearing levels below the replacement level of 2.1, the level required for population to eventually stop growing and stabilize at a given size. Women in Africa have the highest number of children: on average, about five children each, compared with nearly seven children 30 years ago. Women in more developed countries have the fewest children, with an average birth rate of 1.6 now compared with 2.4 in the late 1960s. This low level of childbearing, combined with an older population, accounts for population declines in many European countries. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Trends in Life Expectancy, Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Thomas Malthus “I believe that the earth’s population is growing too quickly and that at some point in future it will exceed food supply, with catastrophic consequences.” T Malthus 1798
Malthus was right…
The link between Fertility and Wealth
Ester Boserup “Global population will increase but human ingenuity will always find ways of producing more food. Necessity is the mother of invention.” Ester Boserup 1935
Malthus was wrong…
Boserup was right…
Club of Rome Predictions
Who’s eating all the food?
Who’s eating all the food?
Getting older… China 2009 China 2050
And older….
And older… Tomoji Tanabe 113 years old
Will Earth cope? Some things you can’t predict…
Meteor strike…
Volcanic Mega-Eruption…
Nuclear War…
“There is no Planet B…”
Earth from 4 billion miles away