Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017 

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Presentation transcript:

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org The Standing Disease Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

1 Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org 8 Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org 16 8 Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org 32 1 2 4 16 8 Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1,024 2,048 4,096 8,192 16,384 32,768 65,536 131,072 262,144 524,288 1,048,576 2,097,152 4,194,304 8,388,608 16,777,216 33,554,432 67,108,864 134,217,728 268,435,456 536,870,912 1,073,741,824 2,147,483,648 4,294,967,296 8,589,934,592 33 steps! Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org “Eyebrows were raised when the Centers for Disease Control’s model forecast 77 trillion cases if the epidemic went unchecked” – Ben Cooper, 2006 Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

? Reproduction number (R0) Definition: Average number of people an Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org ? Reproduction number (R0) Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

? R0=2 Reproduction number (R0) Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org ? Reproduction number (R0) Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic R0=2 Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

Cases decrease each step Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org ? Reproduction number (R0) R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off… R0 < 1 Cases decrease each step Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics

? R0 < 1 R0 > 1 Reproduction number (R0) Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org ? Reproduction number (R0) R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off… R0 < 1 Cases decrease each step R0 > 1 Cases increase each step Supporting material for: Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56. www.scienceinschool.org/2017/issue40/diseasedynamics