Developing External and Truck Trips for a Regional Travel Model Matt Stratton Transportation Modeler Statewide Planning Session May 15, 2017 Add ODOT Logo

Purpose Develop a process to extract trip tables from the Ohio Statewide Model (ODOT) for MPO models MPO regions: Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati Dayton

Introduction: State of the Practice Regional models often rely on simplified models of external and truck travel: Driven by observed traffic counts and internal zone production/attraction models Little known of external zones that produce/attract trips Internal trip generation and distribution treated as closed system

Important Aspects of External Trips External-Internal and External-External trips often not covered by Household surveys External zone production/attraction factors hard to capture without overarching model Internal-External work trip formation depends on Internal work opportunities compared to External zones

Important Aspects of External Trips External-Internal workers take job opportunities from Internal- Internal workers Leads to modeling error if not accounted for External trips play larger role: Near regional model boundaries On major roadways In smaller regions

Our Approach Larger Scale Model Core Regional Model Generalizable External trips are derived from a larger “mega” model that plays a meta role with respect to the external-internal proportions. The external trips should be sensitive to local land use. Larger Scale Model The core internal model (ABM) has to be properly scaled to reflect the external trip shares predicted by the inter-regional mega-model. Core Regional Model Approach need not rely on statewide model and ABM to be applicable, but can be applied with a simple model for a “halo” area around a smaller region. Generalizable Too many words

Our Approach

Statewide / “Mega” Model Truck & Commercial Vehicle Trips Transfer of Statewide models to MPO geography: DCOM – Disaggregate Commercial Model Disaggregate tour-based microsimulation of local delivery and service truck trips ACOM – Aggregate Commercial Model Aggregate econometric model that converts commodity flows to truck trips Represents inter-urban trips that are longer than 50 miles Too many words

Statewide / “Mega” Model Truck & Commercial Vehicle Trips DCOM is separately applied to MPO TAZs, land use, and employment Internal ACOM trips from Statewide model are disaggregated to MPO zones, and then scaled to the proper proportion relative to the locally applied DCOM Too many words

Making External Trips Policy-Sensitive If MPO inputs differ from Statewide model, the following redistribution procedure is applied: Cordon station productions and attractions from the Statewide model Internal productions and attractions calculated based on the MPO trip generation equations for estimating IE truck and auto trip ends Auto trip distribution done via gravity model Truck trip distribution done with Fratar Too many words

Making External Trips Policy-Sensitive Trip tables from the statewide model are blended with the gravity/fratar model output with internal-TAZ specific weight, 𝑤_𝑖𝑇𝐴𝑍, that is normalized between 0 and 1, where a value of 0 means there is no difference between the MPO land use data and the Statewide model and the Statewide trips are used as is, and a value of 1 means one of the sources is 0 and the other is not, so the gravity/fratar results are used. Too many words. Add equations.

Core Regional Model Accounting for External Auto Trips in Core ABM Trip Production Side: Proportion of workers commuting from internal zones to outside MPO region extracted from Statewide model (see map on next slide) The internal work arrangement model was set with a “work outside the region” alternative. Probabilities for this alternative driven by zonal proportions of workers leaving the region. IE commute flow matrix used to assign internal workers to external stations Too many words

Core Regional Model

Core Regional Model Accounting for External Auto Trips in Core ABM Trip Attraction Side: External workers take internal jobs (see map on next slide) These jobs unavailable for internal workers Proportion of jobs taken by external workers in each zone is used to calculate the number of jobs available to internal workers in each zone Size term for the usual work location model is scaled by the ratio of total regional jobs available to internal workers relative to total internal jobs Too many words

Core Regional Model

Integration: Model Component Flow

Integration: Model Component Flow

Integration: Model Component Flow

Future Directions This model integration was one-directional (Statewide to MPO). Two- way integration could be useful. How should overlapping non-work trips be handled? In absence of mega models, more regions should expand geographic halos to capture commute-sheds

Future Directions Household Travel Surveys can be better structured to capture internal-external travel behavior. GPS important on this point Establishment surveys can help with external-internal travel market. Big Data vendors can be useful for seed matrices of external-external travel.

Many Thanks To Ohio Department of Transportation Rebekah Anderson, Greg Giaimo OKI Regional Council of Governments Andrew Rohne Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission Ana Ramirez, Ami Parikh Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Zhuojun Jiang Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency Ali Makarachi WSP USA Chrissy Bernardo, Gaurav Vyas, Ashish Kulshrestha, Peter Vovsha

Contacts Matt Stratton Chrissy Bernardo Transportation Modeler Systems Analysis Group Matt.Stratton@wsp.com Chrissy Bernardo Chrissy.Bernardo@wsp.com