Face-to-Face with Distance Education 25-26 October 2001 Face-to-Face with Distance Education Professor J C Taylor Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia ODLAA Forum 2001

1982 ICCE Conference in Vancouver: 25-26 October 2001 1982 ICCE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t. ODLAA Forum 2001

"gales of creative destruction” Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

Technological Changes Steam Power - 1780s to the 1840s The Railways - 1840s to the 1890s Electric Power - 1890s to the 1930s The Motor Car - 1930s to the 1980s Information Technology - 1980s to ?

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Current prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

Internet Access at Home 167.1 million - USA 27.1 million - Germany 23.4 million - United Kingdom 18.1 million - Italy 11.6 million - Taiwan 9.2 million - Australia Source: Cyberatlas, June 2000

Internet Access at Home % With Internet Access at Home Australia 50% France 22% New Zealand 51% Sweden 61% UK 46% USA 60% Source: A C Nielsen, June 2000

e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score 1 USA 8.73 Australia 8.29 UK 8.10 Canada 8.09 Norway 8.07 Sweden 7.98 Singapore 7.87 Finland 7.83 Denmark 7.70 Netherlands 7.69 Switzerland 7.67 Germany 7.51 Hong Kong 7.45 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score 14 Ireland 7.28 15 France 7.26 16 (tie) Austria 7.22 16 (tie) Taiwan 7.22 18 Japan 7.18 19 Belgium 7.10 20 New Zealand 7.00 21 South Korea 6.97 22 Italy 6.74 23 Israel 6.71 24 Spain 6.43 25 Portugal 6.21 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

Prediction: 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

Underestimating Change In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that the world market for computers would be approximately five. In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend why anyone should need a personal computer.

Getting It Wrong Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 — “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”.

Education must lay the foundation for the success of the global economy.

Fast, Flexible and Fluid The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”.

Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- 25-26 October 2001 Institutional e-Readiness Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support. ODLAA Forum 2001

Why should universities change? 25-26 October 2001 Institutional Inertia Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. ODLAA Forum 2001

More courses available online means more competition for fee-paying students and the emergence of the global higher education economy.

The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Will your institution survive? Will your institution prosper?

Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only) London School of Economics and Political Science University of Chicago Carnegie Mellon University Columbia University Stanford University

Increasing Competition The Cambridge e-MBA Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001.

Fast, Flexible and Fluid? 791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.

Increasing Competition UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net offers more than 1,000 online courses and has enrolled over 12,000 students. offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer points when you enrol in an online course.

The Big Picture Change is the only constant. Growth is the only certainty.

Future Projections A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal http://finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000). The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Five Generations of Distance Education Technology The Correspondence Model The Multimedia Model The Telelearning Model The Flexible Learning Model The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES First Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes No • Print No

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Second Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No • Print Audiotape • Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Third Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE TELELEARNING MODEL No No No No Yes • Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing • Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing No No No No Yes Yes

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Fourth Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes • Interactive multimedia (IMM) • Internet-based access to WWW resources • Computer mediated communication (CMC). Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

The underlying resource model is not significantly different from conventional on campus teaching, with a staff member being necessary to manage groups of approximately 20 students to maintain a reasonable quality of interaction and academic support.

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Fifth Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes • Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources • CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

XML (eXtensible Markup Language) DTD (Document Type Definition) Print Web CD DVD RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: XSL XSL XSL XSL XML CONTENT REPOSITORY: DTD (Document Type Definition) INPUT: XML Editor

USQOnline demonstration…….

Garrison (1997) “The reflective and explicit nature of the written word is a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking and communicating …… it allows time for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners making connections amongst ideas and constructing coherent knowledge structures”.

Automating e-Learning In the USQ approach, many teaching staff make use of discussion groups, which entail students posting “reflections” via the asynchronous CMC system. Storing such interactions with appropriate metadata tags in a database is technically straightforward, and provides a rich resource for mining by key word/matching, using an automated response system.

Incoming “new” question from student NO Duty Tutor Incoming “new” question from student Reusable Learning Objects Database Search / Match Previous Questions <meta tags> Previous Answers <meta tags> New Answer “Immediate” feedback to student YES Trigger

5th Generation As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective academic and administrative student support will tend towards zero.

The PC-ePhone

5th Generation In effect, fifth generation distance education provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost.

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough 25-26 October 2001 “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) ODLAA Forum 2001

The e-Revolution “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. Marshall McLuhan

Aussie Rules…….OK?