Pre-MDD Military Capability Analyses Initiation to Materiel Development Decision (MDD)

Lesson Objectives Examine analytical approaches that identify military capabilities, capability gaps, recommend non-materiel & materiel approaches, & recommend action Examine military capability analytical approaches Explore the relationship these approaches have to the DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR) & Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) Summarize the essential characteristics & qualities of Capability Based Assessments (CBAs)

Why Care About Up-Front Analyses? Life Cycle Cost Determination* Life Cycle Cost Determination 100 Approximately 95% of determined here 80 60 Actual Funds Spent 40 20 Approximately 10% of LCC Spent EMD MDD A TD B C P&D O&S Control Costs Here: “Sweet Spot” Approximately 5% of reduction left here *Notional curves: solid based on combined DAU/AMR Research Inc. data – dashed curves based on “S” function Cost Reduction Opportunities 3

Pre-MDD Military Capability Analysis Joint Concepts Capability & Requirements Analyses MS C MS B Strategic Guidance MS A Technology Development Engineering & Manufacturing Development Production & Deployment Materiel Solution Analysis Technology Opportunities & Resources ICD O&S User Needs MDD CDD CPD AoA Getting the front end right is key – just like anything else we do… AoA: Analysis of Alternatives CDD: Capability Development Document CPD: Capability Production Document ICD: Initial Capabilities Document\ MDD: Materiel Development Decision O&S: Operations & Support

Three “Lanes” to Meet Warfighter Needs “Keep right, except to pass” D E L I B R A T M G N U 0 – 2 YRS 0+ to 5 YRS CONFLICT LANE ONLY POTENTIAL 2-6+

Lane #1: The Deliberate Process Deliberate Requirements Service, CCMD or Agency-driven Traditional route for capabilities that need significant tech development and/or are not urgent or compelling in nature “Keep right, except to pass” 0 – 2 YRS 0+ to 5 YRS 2-6+ YRS U R G E N T E M R G N T D E L I B R A T JRAC addresses Lanes #2 & #3 later this week… CONFLICT LANE ONLY POTENTIAL CONFLICT LANE

Solving Gaps Regardless, solid analysis ought to back these up… Paths to solving capability gaps GFM: for materiel approach available in Joint Force – basically adjusting what we currently have to where it’s needed… DCR: When DoD needs organic Joint Force non-material approach ICD: when DoD needs both materiel & non-materiel approach Regardless, solid analysis ought to back these up… DCR: DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation GFM: Global Force Management ICD: Initial Capabilities Document

DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities CJCSI 3150.25, Joint Lessons Learned Program Documentation reflects operational utility May lead to further analyses (CBA trigger?) & development of JCIDS documents for staffing http://www.dtic.mil/cjcs_directives/cdata/unlimit/3150_25.pdf Joint IED Defeat Transition Package Used as a source document for the CDD & CPD - JROC approval & transition to program of record (POR) JCTD – Joint Capability Technology Demonstration Only after a sufficient assessment of operational utility Outlined in JCTD website: http://www.acq.osd.mil/rfd/ Prototypes Used to address JUONs & JEONs (FITE) (IED robot with Tanglefoot) (JLTV)

DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities (continued…) CBA is the “typical” analytical basis to identify needed capabilities & associated capability gaps Recapitalization, replacement, & IS: CBA takes No Longer Than 90 days (NOT including writing & staffing times…) More complex or new mission area: CBA takes No Longer Than 180 days (again, no writing & staffing times…) No extensive detail or pre-determined solution CBA: Capabilities-Base Assessment IS: Information Systems

DoD Capability Analysis Outputs Regardless of the approach, these analyses ought to: primary outputs will: Describe the mission & military problem Assess prior studies Id the tasks needed to meet mission objectives Id the capabilities using one or more JCAs - describe the tasks, conditions, standards Assess the capability gaps – needed vs programmed force structure Assess the operational risk for each capability gap if not addressed Evaluate possible non-materiel & materiel approaches that would satisfy part or all of the capability gaps Recommend the most appropriate approach to close the capability gaps and reduce operational risk Fundamental goal: recommend action or accept risk JCA: Joint Capability Area

CBA Overview CBA: Initiated by: Becomes basis for: Validating capability needs DoD Sponsor CBA: Typical analytic basis of JCIDS Based upon: Recommends: Joint Concepts Endorsed CONOPS Formally- tasked OPLANS and CONPLANs ACTION w/o excessive rigor ISCs CCJO: Capstone Concept for Joint Operations CONPLAN: Concept Plan ISC: Integrated Security Constructs OPLAN: Operation Plan

Identify Military Concepts Identify Mission or Military Problem CBA Steps in the JCIDS Manual Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 2 Identify Previous Studies Step 3 Determine Study Rigor Needed Capabilities Capability Gaps Operational Risks Step 1 Identify Military Concepts Identify ISCs Identify Mission or Military Problem Scope Identify Non- Materiel Approaches Assess Make Recommendations Needs Analysis Admin: Post to KM/DS Studies Repository Gap Analysis Solutions Analysis Study Initiation Notice Termination Memo (if study terminated) Study Results

CBA to AoA JCIDS Acq Conduct of a CBA ICD AoA Formal Entry Point… ID tasks, performance, & conditions “What’s the military problem” MDD Formal Entry Point… ID capability gaps & redundancies “Analyze the programmed force structure & doctrinal approaches” CBA/ICD Sets up the AoA… ID possible non-materiel & materiel solutions “Address gaps or accept risk” Seam Between Capabilities & Acquisition ICD AoA JCIDS Acq RM Skill Set = Capability Analysis RM Skill Set = Requirements Development Conduct of a CBA

CBA Lit Search: Strategic Guidance QDR CRA Previous Work (AIR, J8 Repository) QDR NSHS NSS NSS NDS NDS NMS NMS CBA: Typical JCIDS analysis UCP JSCP UCP JSCP GEF DPG GEF DPPG AIR: Acquisition Information Repository CRA: Chairman’s Risk Assessment QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review NSS: National Security Strategy NDS: National Defense Strategy NMS: National Military Strategy NSHS: National Strategy for Homeland Security UCP: Unified Command Plan GEF: Guidance on Employment of the Force DPG: Defense Planning Guidance JSCP: Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

CBA Lit Search: Conceptual Guidance Joint Concepts Legacy Docs: JOAC, JOE, JOC, JIC, Etc… CJCSI 3010.02C JCD&E* J7 - JCCD CBA: Typical analytical basis of JCIDS JCA JCA J7 JCCD website - http://www.dtic.mil/futurejointwarfare/ JCCD is responsible for developing conceptual solutions to a Combatant Commander or Service Chiefs expected challenges and then evaluate potential solutions to those challenges through joint experimentation. JCCD: Joint Capabilities to Concept Division JCD&E: Joint Concept Development & Experimentation CCJO: Capstone Concept for Joint Operations JIC: Joint Integrating Concept JCA: Joint Capability Area JOC: Joint Operating Concept JOAC: Joint Operational Access Concept JOE: Joint Operating Environment

JCIDS Document Staffing Acquisition (and/or DCRs) Functional Capability Board SME inputs from DoD Prioritization within this portfolio CCMD Inputs Allied/Partner Nation equity Non-material recommendations Gatekeeper FCB Chair: Ready Validation Discussion? Sponsor JCB JROC Termination Combined “Staffing” 4 days Est. 21 days Commenting/30 days Adjudication/7 days to FCB Chair Est. 7 days to JCB/14 days to JROC Total: 83 days Theoretical ICD max (CBA start to JROC): 263 days

Functional Capability Boards Battlespace Awareness Logistics Force Support C4/Cyber Includes NC and C2 JCAs Brig Gen Weggeman JS J-6 Mr. Gareau JS J-2 Mr. Hawkins JS J-4 BGen O’Donohue JS J-8 Protection BG Polakowski* JS J-8 Force Application BGen O’Donohue JS J-8 Additional JCAs: Building Partnerships Corporate Management & Support The FCBs are boards below the JCB and provide review and assessment of documents and adjudication of lower level issues within their designated portfolios prior to review by the JCB, review/adjust Joint prioritization established by the FCB Working Groups (WGs), and perform other activities at the direction of the JCB or the JROC. The FCBs are aligned with the joint capability areas (JCAs), which define portfolios of functionally similar capabilities within which each of the FCBs can focus their efforts. *Replacement pending… FCB Membership: (O-6 level) Services Combatant Command Reps OSD (AT&L) OSD (I) USecAF (Space) DOD CIO D/CAPE DIA Rep (Threat) ODNI/IRB Other DoD Agencies as necessary OSD (Comptroller)

CBA Framework: Six FCBs – but Nine JCAs JCA Definition: “…currently the preferred method the DoD uses for reviewing and managing capabilities.” “Collections of like DoD capabilities functionally grouped to support capability analysis…” First proposed in 2003 (21), tiered as far as five levels: Updated Structure: JCA # Name FCB Sponsor 1 Force Support Same J-8 2 Battlespace Awareness Same J-2 3 Force Application Same J-8 4 Logistics Same J-4 5 C4 C4/Cyber J-6 6 Cyber C4/Cyber J-6 7 Protection Same J-8 8 Building Partnerships NA J-5 9 Corporate Management NA J-5

Sample JCA & Tiering 2 Battlespace Awareness – The ability to understand dispositions and intentions as well as the characteristics and conditions of the operational environment that bear on national and military decision-making. 2.1 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance – The ability to conduct activities to meet the intelligence needs of national and military decision-makers. 2.1.1 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Planning and Direction – The ability to synchronize and integrate the activities of collection, processing, exploitation, analysis and dissemination resources to meet information requirements of national and military decision-makers. 2.1.1.1 Define and Prioritize Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Requirements – The ability to translate national through tactical objectives and needs into specific information and operational requirements for ISR. … 2.2 Environment – The ability to characterize and exploit the meteorological, space and oceanographic information from the sub-bottom of the earth’s oceans up to and including space.

1st Recommendation: Non-Materiel Approaches Doctrine Facilities Leadership & Education Organization Policy Personnel Training DCR DOTmLPF - P Change Recommendation

Joint DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR) When DoD decides a joint, Non-Materiel solution is the right way to go: Doctrine: change how we fight Organization: change how we’re organized to fight Training: change how we train our DoD personnel materiel: acquire COTS, GOTS, or NDI Leadership: adjust the joint leader’s professional development Personnel: add or reassign people Facilities: move or realign buildings & infrastructure Policy: change policy that impacts how we fight COTS: Commercial Off-the-Shelf GOTS: Government Off-the-Shelf NDI: Non-Developments Items

2nd Recommendation: Materiel Approaches Development & Fielding of Information Systems Or similar technologies with high obsolescence rates Evolution of existing capabilities Evolution of Existing Systems Provide significant capability improvement Replacing existing system with more capable system Simple recapitalization Transformational Systems Differ significantly in form, function, operation & capabilities Significant improvement over current capability Transforms how we accomplish mission

Bottom Line Pre-MDD Capability Analysis: AoA Sound Analysis, Findings & Recommendations: vital for shaping the force & the foundation of a successful acquisition These same results then support which acquisition document? Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase Usually starts & supports which acquisition phase? Materiel Development Decision (MDD) Supports which decision? Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) Support which document? Results & Recommendations

Lesson Take Aways Solid Pre-MDD analysis is vital to the ICD Ensure your approach effectively scopes the analysis needed (Goldilocks Zone…) Keep in mind it sets up later, more-detailed analyses & decisions CBAs: 90-180 days, use representative scenarios from the ISC, & use a realistic timeframe for delivery of the capability Align all capability requirements to prioritized JCAs Develop the ICD using the correct format and length Recommend appropriate actions to mitigate gaps Accept risk Non-materiel Materiel

Sources for More Info Acq Info Repository (AIR) https://www.dodtechipedia.mil/AIR DASD/RF (Rapid Fielding - JCTD) site: http://www.acq.osd.mil/rfd/ DAU online course CLR 250, Capability-Based Assessments: https://learn.dau.mil General CBA overview – more detailed than RQM 310 – use browse mode DAU RM Community of Practice (RMCoP): https://acc.dau.mil/CommunityBrowser.aspx?id=204035 DTM site: http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/dir3.html JCIDS Intellipedia site: https://www.intelink.gov/wiki/JCIDS CJSCI 3170.01H, JCIDS, 10 Jan 2012 CJCSI 5123.01F, JROC Charter, 10 Jan 2012 JCIDS Manual, 19 Jan 2012 (& errata) JCIDS Process Flowchart, 19 Jan 2012

Questions? 26

What does the JROC expect from Pre-MDD analyses? Analytical depth Specific recommendation Analytical breadth Action timetables 0 of 23

What’s the maximum time a CBA should take? 30 days 90 days 180 days 263 days 0 of 23

What recommendations can be submitted with a DCR? Increasing manpower, operational tempo, spare parts, fuel supplies, and recruiting Recommend changing PME subjects or emphasis Adding personnel to mission areas All of these choices are correct 0 of 23

Validated Threat Documents AoA Study Report Which of the following is not a predecessor document or input for the ICD? Joint Concepts Validated Threat Documents AoA Study Report Capabilities Based Assessments (CBAs) All of these choices are correct 0 of 23

Which choice best represents the role of the CBA? It maintains focus on developing specific solutions after sponsor initiation It indirectly supports the ICD staffing process It is analysis that underpins JCIDs It directly supports the CDD staffing process All answers are correct 0 of 23

CBAs identify all but which of the following: Possible non-materiel approaches Operational risks Materiel approach support Shortfalls in existing systems 0 of 23