MODULE 11 – SCENARIO PLANNING Stage 2 – Leadership for Strategy

Module Overview Learning Objectives Learning Outcomes To introduce the method for developing dynamic scenarios and initiating inclusive strategic dialogues for strategic planning and problem solving. Learning Outcomes Participants understand dynamic and systemic scenario planning and experience its creative process. Participants learn to approach organisational challenges with strategic thinking and action. Participants understand the key role of strategic conversations in (a) creating a learning organisation and (b) enhancing the motivation and effectiveness of staff and partners. Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Module Structure Interactive Introduction Group Exercise – Scenario planning exercise Discussion – Discussing the role of strategic conversations in communities and organisations Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Working Definitions Scenario Dynamic scenario planning In the dynamic scenario planning method we introduce “scenarios are not forecasts but a set of structurally different futures conceived through a process of casual, rather than probabilistic thinking” is a story line that explores different key derivers of events and establishes a casual relation among them.” Dynamic scenario planning Dynamic scenario planning is a process of thinking through models of possible futures that are casual and structurally different. Scenario planning involves system thinking and allows organizations to move away from linear planning processes and help them better understand and prepare for changes in the external environment. . Strategic conversation Strategic conversation is an on- going conversation process about strategic issues that is established for the continuous improvement of the organizational functioning. When effective it connects formal and informal spaces of communication within the organization and creates a collective experience, accepted and shared theories-in use, interpretations that are foundations for joint action. Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

EXERCISES

Interactive Introduction Exercise 1 Interactive Introduction Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of planning processes you know, and the planning methods you use in your community planning; After small group discussions, report the typical weaknesses of actual planning processes in a plenary discussion. Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Group Exercise – Scenario planning exercise In groups, develop scenarios for an ambitious public service improvement programme. During a plenary session present and compare scenarios, identify the drivers in the different scenarios and discuss how much the understanding of key drivers of events can help resilience for local strategies and power to actions. Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Exercise 3 Discussion – Discussing the role of strategic conversations in communities and organisations Reflect on how could such scenario processes be implemented in your organisations and on the role strategic conversations would play in organisational development and effectiveness. Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

SCENARIO PLANNING (previous materials)

Dynamic approach The environment is dynamic; on-going adjustments to plans are essential. Strategic thinking is first step in strategic planning. It must be based on: What is important for the community / municipal organisation Engagement of all staff, local people and organisations Shared view of the future Experience It will facilitate flexibility and growth Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Scenario planning Supports strategic thinking around a plausible future for the municipality Encourages development of a “learning organisation” Supports search for solutions in an uncertain context Builds wide consensus and learning Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Secrets of scenario planning In a changing environment, the process of developing a strategy is more important than the plan; it is an on-going activity The value of “strategic conversations”: Creativity and harnessing energies Connecting formal and informal discussions Creating consensus through: Shared experience Agreed analysis and evaluation Agreement on direction and action Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Leadership role VISION: a view of a credible and attractive future SENSE OF PURPOSE: strengthens a sense of direction based on (a) a set of values, (b) the determination to achieve the vision (c) the energy that will be required LEARNING: enables staff to contribute their best to the delivery of the vision Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

The leadership challenge To create effective and open communication and commitment Engage and encourage staff, local people and organisations to reflect on the future Generate motivation to make the extra steps for a desired future Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning

Strategic leadership skills Making sense of the environment Creating understanding of the changing context of the work of the municipality Creating a roadmap towards the future Relating to stakeholders Building relationships based on trust and partnership-working within and outside the organisation Generating a vision Creating credible and compelling images of a future that both the municipality and local people/organisations want to create together Promoting creativity Developing new ways of approaching tasks and overcoming obstacles Stage 2 Module 11 – Scenario Planning