Studying the Impacts of Regeneration and the 2014 Commonwealth Games on the East End of Glasgow Learning City 2020 & EcCoWell Conference Glasgow, 5th December 2013 Ade Kearns

Aims of the Study What are the effects of regeneration and developments and programmes associated with CG 2014 in the East End of Glasgow upon the quality of life and the health and wellbeing of nearby communities? In which outcome domains are the impacts greatest, and for whom? How are those impacts brought about? Which programmes & pathways are most effective? What are the barriers to impacts? Are there negative effects as well as positive ones? Why study the East End particularly? The Games are not about the East End so much as they are about Glasgow and Scotland. But, in many respects, the East End can be considered the ‘host’ community for the Games in that the main new developments to accommodate the Games are located there. On the one hand, the East End will experience the most disruption in preparation for the Games, and of course some of the negative impacts of this kind of disruption have been highlighted in relation to other, recent multisport events. On the other hand, parts of the East End have clearly been in need of improvement and development for some time. The Games provides an opportunity for the Council and other partners to deliver some of that improvement. If the Games is going to leave a legacy, then the East End is the most likely place for some of those legacy objectives to become apparent, and also the place most in need of those legacy effects. So the East End is definitely ‘one to watch’.

The Study Area The East End Local Development Strategy Area Apart from the two most northern parts (Haghill; South Carntyne). Enacted by GCC in 2008. Study area: population of 19,000 people in 11,000 dwellings (2012). Contained 103 hectares of vacant and derelict land in 2006 (16%). Matches the study to an intervention area. Illustrates the reported best-case scenario of embedding legacy objectives within wider strategies. A large study area, even if it seems restricted. There are a lot of potential opportunities for change within the area.

The Study Datazones & SIMD 2012 The study area is the most rapidly changing part of the East End and this has been going on for at least the last six or seven years. It doesn’t entirely match the conventional perception of the East End: The population is not as elderly as in other parts of the EE. It has a large private rented sector (23% of dwellings). Around half the adults are in employment, training or education. The study area consists of 27 datazones of which: 21 are in the target worst 15% in Scotland. Of the other 6 datazones, 4 are in the bottom half of the national distribution on SIMD, and 2 are at or above the mid-point. (6,505 datazones in Scotland) (Source: Scottish Government)

Gallowgate Calton Camlachie Parkhead Bridgeton (part) Dalmarnock The area comprises 6 locally identifiable communities. The largest (Bridgeton) is nearly ten times the size of the smallest (Camlachie). We may be able to produce some findings for groupings of these communities, but not for all of them separately. We have used them to ensure that our study is fully representative of all constituent areas of the Inner East End. We might expect some distance-decay functions to operate even within our study area with regard to issues such as whether or not people feel a part of what is going on in the locality. There are three large roads which divide the study area, and these could mean that some of the communities feel more detached from what is going on than others. Dalmarnock

Assessing Progress Towards Legacy Objecives Glasgow City Council Scottish Government Prosperous: Growing businesses; building careers Flourishing: Scottish business growth. Scotland as a business destination. International: Glasgow’s image; attracting events; inward investment; tourism. Connected: Scotland’s image as a creative nation. Artistic and cultural engagement. Understanding of other nations/cultures. Inclusive: Volunteering; learning. Accessible: Transport & connectivity. Sustainable: Improved physical environment (G&EE) Improved social environment (G&EE) Empower communities in Scotland Sustainable design Environmental responsibility Sustainable travel. Green: Use of green spaces; sustainable living standards – carbon emissions; waste. Active: Inspiring physical activity & sports participation. Providing world-class facilities; Active culture; sports club development. Helping Scotland’s population to be more physically active Active infrastructure Sporting success Assessing Progress Towards Legacy Objecives

GoWell East Research Elements A Three-stage Longitudinal Survey of a Resident Cohort GoWell East Research Elements A Five-stage longitudinal survey of a Pupil Cohort A realistic evaluation Investigation of Interventions and Pathways to Outcomes Programme context Mechanisms Under what circumstances? Who benefits (or not)? Semi-structured interviews with residents & local organisations Semi-structure interviews and workshops with regeneration & CWG policy stakeholders Monitoring of secondary data for the East End on the physical, social and consumer environments Ecological Analysis of Health and Deprivation Indicators for the East End & Glasgow

Quasi-Experimental Design: Main Survey GoEast 2012 GoEast 2014 GoEast 2016 GoWell 2011 GoWell 2015 4-6 GoWell Comparison areas in similar deciles on 2012 SIMD. Comparison indicators: employment; housing; neighbourhood; community; health and wellbeing; physical activity.

Survey Findings Ecological Data People and Place Policy Documents Programme Mgt Info Stakeholder Interviews Programmes and Projects Review of the Evidence Base: Past Studies of Multi-Sport Events Past Studies of Programme Types Emerging Evidence from London 2012 Plausibility Assessment of Likely and Eventual Impacts

There is a Lot going on… Glasgow City Council Scottish Government Theme Programmes/Projects Prosperous 14 Flourishing 12 Active 17 9 International Connected 11 Inclusive 19   Accessible Sustainable 13 Greener Total 88 45

Measuring Trends in Inequality SG Theme Indicators for Scotland & Glasgow Equivalent or Similar Indicators for East End Examples Flourishing 14 4 Volunteering. Apprenticeships. Active 18 11 Sports participation. Sports volunteering. Active travel to work. Connected 9 Cultural attendance. Engagement with the CWG. Pride in local area. Sustainable 8 Perceptions of safety. Rating of quality of green space. Perceived area improvement. Perceived community influence.

How much do host communities gain (or lose) in the medium term from the linking of a multi-sports event to area regeneration objectives? Which legacy themes and programmes have the most impacts, sustained over time? How much of any ‘success’ is due to the way legacy is governed and managed by the partners?