Some Thoughts about Urbanization & the Potential Impacts to Fuel/Vehicle Demand Fuels Institute Annual Meeting May 2017

Guess: What city did this comment originate from? City Managers Becoming Frustrated and Are Looking for Options… Guess: What city did this comment originate from? “Until you make it so painful that people want to come out of their cars, they’re not going to come out of their cars. We’re going to make them suffer first, and then we’re going to figure out ways to move them after that because they’re going to scream at us to help them move.”

Global Population Density in Urban Areas 54.5% of People Live in Urban Areas, Increasing to 70% by 2030; Traffic and Air Pollution are Becoming Unmanageable in Many Cities With a growing fleet and ever-expanding cities, managing traffic is becoming a more critical challenge to cities, and so is air pollution and climate change as a result Some cities will bank on (1) improved public transport (2) promoting walking & cycling (3) autonomous EV car sharing (4) more car-free days or outright car bans in city centers, affecting future demand for fuels.

Worsening Traffic; Air Pollution & Climate Change Concerns Urbanization Driving Cities to Act Cities Can Set Policies that Adversely Impact Vehicle, Fuel Demand Urbanization Worsening Traffic; Air Pollution & Climate Change Concerns City Responses Decline in Fuel Demand

What Can Cities Do? A Lot. Reduced Fuel Demand Cities Are Already Beginning to Take Actions in These Areas; Trump Has Only Strengthened Their Resolve on Climate Aspects Reduced Fuel Demand Institute Car Bans & Other Limitations Promote EVs (Infrastructure) Promote Ride Sharing Improve Public Transport Promote Walking & Cycling Limit Parking

Case Study: Status of Car Bans Globally Most Focus on Diesel…For Now…Will U.S. Cities Join? Restrictions/ Bans Paris London Athens Mexico City Stuttgart Bangalore Zurich Oslo Barcelona Munich? Barcelona will ban all cars older than 20 years old from 2019 A court has ordered Munich to develop plans by the end of this year for banning diesel-fuelled cars Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City announced plans in December 2016 to take diesel cars and vans off their roads by 2025 New Delhi banned all new large diesel cars and SUVs with engines of more than 2,000CC and is phasing out thousands of diesel taxis. Oslo plans a “no car zone” Zurich has capped the number of parking spaces in the city, only allows a certain number of cars into the city at any one time, and is building more car-free areas, plazas, tram lines and pedestrianised streets

Questions? Tammy Klein, Principal Future Fuel Strategies +1.703.625.1072 (M); tammy@futurefuelstrategies.com http://www.futurefuelstrategies.com